Sovereignty and Material Welfare in Small Island Jurisdictions
Geoff BertramStout Centre Winter Research Seminar Series
3 August 2011
Three bits of conventional wisdom under threat in small islands
• The presumption that there are economies of scale and scope in government
• The presumption that there are crucial economies of scale and scope in economic development
• The presumption that developmental success in a small open economy requires strong trading performance on the export side to sustain material standards of living.
• Over the past three decades I have gradually worked my way up that list, using data on a widening set of small islands around the world.
Empirically observed unimportance of strong trade performance to sustain living standards
• MIRAB model: Bertram and Watters 1985; Bertram 1986, 1993, 1998, 2006.
• Strength of tourism as a leading sector: McElroy 2006
• Wide range of other options - “resourcefulness of jurisdiction: Baldacchino and Milne 2000; Baldacchino 2006
• Synthesis of nine development strategies with export-led growth only one: Bertram and Poirine 2009
Empirically observed failure of the ‘vulnerability paradigm’
• Small islands intuitively seen as vulnerable: Streeten 1993, Briguglio 1995
• Empirical work showed ‘vulnerability’ was inversely related to income per head: Armstrong et al 1998, Easterly and Kraay 2002, Sampson 2005
• Alternative model emphasises the power of local agency and the strategic-flexibility model of island success: Baldacchino and Bertram 2009
World Development indicators Top Ten Countries by 2007 GNI per capita (Atlas method)
1 Monaco 173,3102 Liechtenstein 111,690
3 Luxembourg 78,4704 Norway 76,1905 Channel Islands 68,6006 Iceland 58,4307 Switzerland 57,0208 Denmark 54,7009 Isle of Man 49,300
10 Sweden 48,900
http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators accessed 2 August 2011
That’s six very small countries, three of them islands, in the top ten
• WDI misses a lot of small islands: Bermuda, Aruba, Cayman Islands, Sint Maarten…..
• Easterly and Kraay 2002 p.2015: “if we control for the location by continent of all countries, whether they are oil producers, and whether they belong to the OECD, then small states are actually significantly richer than other states”.
• Diseconomies of scale and scope did not turn out crippling – again this led to the research on development strategies I mentioned earlier
Easterly and Kraay’s (2002) scatter relating population to income per capita
Easterly, W. and A. Kraay, 2002 “Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, andVolatility in Small States” World Development 28(11): 2013-2027, November
A by-product of the empirical work on size and import financing was the explanatory power of political status
• Strong statistical evidence that non-sovereign status is positive for the level of per capita GDP: Armstrong et al (1998, 2002), Bertram (2004), McElroy and Pearce (2006), and Sampson (2005 p.7)
• Sampson found, however, no significant effect of sovereignty status on the growth rate, and a negative effect on growth of being a small state, after controlling for sovereignty. Higher incomes today, in other words, seemed to be explained by past, not current, economic growth.
• Bertram (1987) – reviewed the various options for decolonisation: sovereign independence, integration with another
state, self-government in free association, and possible unspecified other options – argued the case that sovereign independence was likely to be an inferior option for very small
islands– further argued that integration – if done on the right terms – could well be superior to free
association.
• Bertram (2004): Integrated political status was estimated to add between $5,600 and $7,500 in USD to per capita income, relative to sovereign independence
G. Bertram, 2004, ‘On the convergence of small island economies with their metropolitan patrons’, World Development 32(2): 343-364, p.346
G. Bertram, 2004, ‘On the convergence of small island economies with their metropolitan patrons’, World Development 32(2): 343-364, p.352.
11
Relationship of Real Per Capita Income of Islands and their Metropolitan Patrons, Panel Data at Five-Yearly Intervals, Log Data
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
8.8 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10 10.2 10.4 10.6
Log of Metropolitan Real GDP per capita
Log
of
Isla
nd R
eal G
DP
per
cap
ita
Integrated
Associated
Sovereign
Source: Geoff Bertram, “On the Convergence of Small Island Economies with their Metropolitan Patrons”, World Development 32, 2 (February 2004) pp.343-364.
12
Relationship of Real Per Capita Income of Islands and their Metropolitan Patrons, Panel Data at Five-Yearly Intervals, Log Data
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
8.8 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10 10.2 10.4 10.6
Log of Metropolitan Real GDP per capita
Log
of
Isla
nd R
eal G
DP
per
cap
ita
Integrated
Associated
Sovereign
Source: Geoff Bertram, “On the Convergence of Small Island Economies with their Metropolitan Patrons”, World Development 32, 2 (February 2004) pp.343-364.
13
Relationship of Real Per Capita Income of Islands and their Metropolitan Patrons, Panel Data at Five-Yearly Intervals, Log Data
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
8.8 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10 10.2 10.4 10.6
Log of Metropolitan Real GDP per capita
Log
of
Isla
nd R
eal G
DP
per
cap
ita
Integrated
Associated
Sovereign
Source: Geoff Bertram, “On the Convergence of Small Island Economies with their Metropolitan Patrons”, World Development 32, 2 (February 2004) pp.343-364.
• I hypothesised that non-sovereign political status conferred advantages in political-economy terms, because by being integrated with a larger, usually richer, economy, a small island community could secure more favourable treatment in terms of financial aid, migration access, other market access, and ability to leverage off some functions of large-country government services such as education and health.
• Poirine (1999) demonstrated that in the 1990s not only did islands receive more aid per capita than larger, non-island countries, but that non-sovereign islands secured 36 times more bilateral aid than comparable sovereign independent island states.
• Feyer and Sacerdote 2009 began to nail down the long-term effects of colonialism – and hence the outcomes of decolonisation - across a sample of 81 islands
• They found “a robust positive relationship between colonial tenure and modern outcomes. “
• They also found that (2009 p.256) “Being a colony at the end of the twentieth century remains very positively associated with income.”
• For them, this was an accidental by-product of statistically establishing a separate result, that “Conditional on making it to the end of the century as a colony, years as a colony in the twentieth century are negatively associated with income.”
Feyrer, J. and B. Sacerdote, 2009, “Colonialism and Modern Income: Islands as Natural Experiments” Review of Economics and Statistics, May, 91(2): 245–262, p.251.
• By “remaining as a colony”, Feyrer and Sacerdote meant being a sub-national political unit, subordinated in some sense to a larger metropolitan power.
• But this misconstrues the issue
• Decolonisation does not necessarily have to consist of moving to a sovereign independent nation state.
• On the contrary, small islands have been the laboratory for exploring various ways of exiting from the colonial era, and sub-national status in the early twenty-first century is fully compatible with genuine exercise of autonomous local agency in economic and social development, as Godfrey Baldacchino and I have been arguing (Baldacchino and Bertram 2009).
• To develop and explore this issue, more historical data research is needed, and so I have been working towards assembling a data set to trace case-by-case outcomes from different sorts of decolonisation.
Some history
• Decolonisation was one of the great historical transformations of the twentieth century
• But it has to be borne in mind that in the Americas there was a similar political upheaval in the years 1775 to 1825, as a colonial order operated on the North and South American continents by Britain, Spain, Portugal and France was supplanted by a swarm of new sovereign nation states.
• The dominant process in both cases was installation of sovereign national governments in place of the colonial administrators
• That resulted in other options getting relatively little attention in the past half-century, so that sub-national jurisdictions tend to be confused with colonies
• The real issue is the extent of local autonomy, agency and initiative, and decolonisation in the sub-national context is a change in degree rather than in kind on these dimensions
Note that the decolonisation of the Americas ran aground on the islands of the Caribbean
• Only in Haiti did an independent nation state emerge
• Initially, the elites controlling the Caribbean islands threw in their lot with the metropolitan colonial powers as a matter of straightforward self-interest.
• Over time the number of groups that benefited from the colonial relationship grew to encompass a growing proportion of the islander population
• Eventually this developed into the great post-World War II burst of West Indian migration to Britain; between 1948 and 1970 about half a million people moved out of a population in the British West Indies of 3-4 million – about 15% out-migration.
• Spanish colonial rule in the Caribbean was broken by the USA in 1898 by conquest - but the outcome was one nation state (Cuba) and one sub-national jurisdiction (Puerto Rico) which remains cheerfully non-sovereign
• And then the USA went and bought the US Virgin Islands from Denmark (1917) – still an “unincorporated organized territory”
US inhabited island territories US State
Since Other history Hawaii 1959 Annexed by US 1898
Commonwealths of the United States Puerto Rico 1952 US colony 1898-1952 Northern Mariana Islands 1978 UN Trust Territory 1946-
78 Unincorporated organized territories Guam 1898 Conquered from Spain US Virgin Islands 1917 Purchased from Denmark Unincorporated unorganized territory American Samoa 1898 Extraterritorial jurisdiction Guantanamo Bay 1903 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_States#cite_note-0 accessed 1 August 2011
None of these really think of themselves as colonies any more
After World War II the UN progressively became the agent of decolonisation worldwide
• Chapter XI of the United Nations Charter contains a “Declaration Regarding Non-Self-Governing Territories”.
• Administering powers were to foster self-government and local political aspirations (Article 73(b)) and to report to the UN on their administration (Article 73(3))
• In 1946 a list was produced of such territories
• The list missed the Portuguese territories and several small British possessions, and did not include the trust and mandate territories which had separate reporting lines
• A further list was prepared in 1963, with substantially different coverage
The two UN lists provide me with two samples for analysis of the impact of decolonisation
• In each case I take out the small island countries as a representative sample of candidates for “decolonisation”
• I divide them between those that (as of 2011) have moved to become sovereign states, and those that have become sub-national island jurisdictions (SNIJs)
• I aim to compare the two groups on indicators such as population, income per head, life expectancy, early childhood mortality, imports per head
• This is only work in progress at this stage, though – the time-series data sets are still being assembled
Sample 1: the 1946 UN list
• Under Article 73(e) of the UN Charter, administering powers were required to report on non-self-governing territories under their control
• In 1946 the UN produced a list of the territories covered by this requirement.• The list contained 64 named territories of which 33 were islands or groups of
islands• Decomposing the island groups according to their eventual identities and excluding
Madagascar (but including its previous dependency the Comoros) the 33 island listings in the 1946 list contained 50 individual islands or archipelagoes with distinct identities
• The number drops to 46 if the Netherlands Antilles excluding Aruba but including Curacao are treated as a single entity (which will be done here, although the political unit was dissolved in 2010, since statistics usually refer to the group)
• Two of the islands, Singapore and Puerto Rico, are marginal as “small islands”, coming in under the 5 million population mark but much bigger than the rest of the sample
• Excluding those two gives 44 small islands that were non-self governing in 1946• Dividing them between those which are now sovereigns and those which are SNIJs
we can check whether it was the big ones that became independent (20) and the small ones that did not (26):
Island territory Component islands Colonial power Greenland Greenland Denmark Madagascar and Dependencies Madagascar France
Mayotte France
Comoros France
French Establishments in Oceania French Polynesia France
Wallis and Futuna France
New Caledonia and Dependencies New Caledonia France Saint-Pierre et Miquelon Saint-Pierre et Miquelon France New Hebrides New Hebrides France/UK Reunion Reunion France Netherlands Antilles Aruba Netherlands
Bonaire Netherlands
Sint Maarten Netherlands
Saba Netherlands
Sint Eustatius Netherlands
Surinam and Curacao Curacao Netherlands Cook Islands Cook Islands New Zealand
Niue New Zealand
Tokelau Tokelau New Zealand Bahamas Bahamas UK Barbados Barbados UK Bermuda Bermuda UK Cyprus Cyprus UK Dominica Dominica UK Falkland Islands Falkland Islands UK Fiji Fiji UK
Island territory Component islands Colonial power
Leeward Islands Antigua UK
British Virgin Islands UK
Montserrat UK
St Kitts-Nevis UK
Anguilla UK
Malta Malta UK Mauritius Mauritius UK St Helena and Dependencies St Helena UK
Tristan da Cunha UK
Ascension Island UK
St Lucia St Lucia UK St Vincent St Vincent UK Seychelles Seychelles UK Singapore Singapore UK Trinidad and Tobago Trinidad and Tobago UK High Commission Territories of the Western Pacific Gilbert and Ellice Islands UK
Solomon Islands Protectorate UK
Pitcairn Island UK
American Samoa American Samoa USA Guam Guam USA Hawaii Hawaii USA Puerto Rico Puerto Rico USA US Virgin Islands US Virgin Islands USA
Islands in the UN’s 1946 list of non-self-governing territories
First question: was it that bigger islands became sovereigns and smaller islands became SNIJs?
Ellic
e Isl
ands
- Tu
valu
St K
itts-
Nevi
sDo
min
icaAn
tigua
and
Bar
buda
Gilb
ert I
sland
s - K
iriba
tiSe
yche
lles
Tong
aSt
Vin
cent
St Lu
ciaNe
w H
ebrid
esBa
rbad
osBa
ham
asM
alta
Com
oros
Solo
mon
Isla
nds P
rote
ctor
ate
Cypr
us Fiji
Mau
ritius
Trin
idad
and
Tob
ago
Sing
apor
ePu
erto
Rico
Haw
aii
Reun
ion
Fren
ch P
olyn
esia
New
Cal
edon
iaNe
ther
land
s Anti
lles
May
otte
Guam
US V
irgin
Isla
nds
Arub
aBe
rmud
aAm
erica
n Sa
moa
Gree
nlan
dBr
itish
Virg
in Is
land
sCo
ok Is
land
sW
allis
and
Fut
una
Angu
illa
St H
elen
aSa
int-P
ierr
e et
Miq
uelo
nM
onts
erra
tFa
lkla
nd Is
land
sNi
ueTo
kela
uAs
cens
ion
Islan
dTr
istan
da
Cunh
aPi
tcai
rn Is
land
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
Island territories listed by the UN in 1946, arrayed by size and political status as at 2011
Sovereign states Sub-national jurisdictions
Popu
latio
n
Ellice
Islan
ds - Tu
valu
St Kitts-N
evis
Dominica
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Gilbert
Islan
ds - Kirib
ati
Seych
ellesTo
nga
St Vincen
t
St Lu
cia
New Heb
rides
Barbad
os
Baham
asMalt
a
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands P
rotec
torate
Cypru
s Fiji
Mauriti
us
Trinidad
and To
bagoHaw
aii
Reunion
French
Polynesi
a
New Cale
donia
Netherl
ands A
ntillesGuam
US Virg
in Islan
dsAru
ba
Bermuda
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
British
Virgin Isl
ands
Cook Isla
nds
Wall
is and Fu
tuna
Anguilla
St Hele
na
Saint-P
ierre
et Miquelo
n
Montserra
t
Falkl
and Isl
ands
Niue
Toke
lau
Ascensio
n Islan
d
Trista
n da Cunha
Pitcair
n Islan
d0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Island territories listed by the UN in 1946, arrayed by size and political status as at 2011,
excluding Singapore and Puerto Rico
Sovereign states 2011 Sub-national jurisdictions 2011
Popu
latio
n
There’s certainly a tendency for larger entities to have become sovereign independent states, but there’s a wide range of sizes on
both sides
• The average population of the sovereigns at about 2006 is 371,000 and the average of the SNIJs is 145,000
• But the standard deviations are 394,000 and 293,000 respectively, which means the relationship of size with propensity to become sovereign is pretty weak
• Ask now how the two sets of islands rank in terms of GDP per capita half a century after being listed by the UN in 1946
Independence and GDP per capita
• There’s an immediate data problem: the big databases (Penn World Tables, World Development Indicators, UN National Accounts Statistics) cover sovereign states well but only a few sub-national jurisdictions
– PWT incudes Bermuda but none of the other SNIJs– WDI has no sub-nationals at all– UN National Accounts Statistics cover Greenland, French Polynesia, New
Caledonia, Aruba and Netherlands Antilles, Cook Islands, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Montserrat and Anguilla – that’s ten entities, or nine of the 25 SNIJs in the earlier charts (we now separate Aruba from the rest of the Netherlands Antilles); but data is not PPP-adjusted
• The CIA World Factbook covers all the SNIJs with PPP estimates of per capita GDP but is a bit dodgy
Try first the UN data
Com
oros
Solo
mon
Isla
nds P
rote
ctor
ate
Gilb
ert I
sland
s - K
iriba
ti
New
Heb
rides
Ellic
e Is
land
s - T
uval
u
Tong
a Fiji
St V
ince
nt
Dom
inic
a
Mau
ritius
St L
ucia
St K
itts-
Nev
is
Antig
ua a
nd B
arbu
da
Seyc
helle
s
Barb
ados
Trin
idad
and
Tob
ago
Mal
ta
Baha
mas
Cypr
us
Berm
uda
Briti
sh V
irgin
Isla
nds
Gre
enla
nd
New
Cal
edon
ia
Arub
a
Net
herla
nds A
ntille
s
Fren
ch P
olyn
esia
Angu
illa
Cook
Isla
nds
Mon
tser
rat
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Per capita GDP, US dollars at 2005 prices, UN Statistics Division data
Sovereigns SNIJs
US $
at 2
005
price
s, no
t PPP
adj
uste
d
Now the CIA’s 2005 PPP-adjusted data as collated by McElroy and Parry
Comoros
Ellice
Islan
ds - Tu
valu
Tonga
St Vince
nt
Dominica
Seych
elles
Antigua and Barb
uda
Mau
ritius
Baham
as
Cypru
s
Bermuda
Aruba
French
Polynes
ia
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
Saint-P
ierre
et Miquelo
nNiue
Wall
is and Futu
na
May
otte
Trista
n da Cunha
Toke
lau0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Per capita GDP, US dollars at 2005 prices, CIA data
Sovereigns SNIJs
US$
at 2
005
price
s (PP
P ad
just
ed)
Still looks as though SNIJs ended up ahead• Weighting each entity’s observation by population and then taking the
population-weighted average for those that became sovereign and those that became SNIJs gives some confidence that the result is robust
• But the data are still not good enough to support much statistical sophistication
• The good sources - PWT and WDI - have virtually no SNIJ observations, so we’re stuck with comparisons from the other two sources
• UN Statistical Division is probably better data, but CIA has at least tried PPP adjustment
• Summary findings:
McElroy-Parry CIA PWT 6.3 WDI UN Statistical data current US$
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Population-weighted average per capita GDP: various sources and samples from 1946 UN list
Sovereigns SNIJs
US$
at 2
005
Sam
ple
= 1
9
Sam
ple
= 25
Sam
ple
= 19
Sam
ple
= 1
Sam
ple
= 17
Sam
ple
= 0 Sa
mpl
e =
19 Sam
ple
= 10
Other indicators of welfare• Life expectancy and child mortality both seem to correlate with material
welfare
• The UN life expectancy statistical database at http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/dyb/dyb2008.htm has 35 of the 46 islands in the 1946 list (including Singapore and Puerto Rico), including 17 SNIJs
• The WHO life expectancy database at http://apps.who.int/ghodata/?vid=710# has 2009 data for 21 islands but only 2 of them are SNIJs
• Although the UN data is more mixed in its dates – mainly around 2000 – I use it here to get coverage except for the Comoros where the WHO figure is used (no UN figure)
• This gives me 19 sovereigns and 17 SNIJs
Comoros
Gilbert
Islan
ds - Kirib
ati
Solomon Isl
ands
Ellice
Islan
ds - Tu
valu Fij
i
Vanuatu
St Kitts-N
evis
St Vincen
tTo
nga
Trinidad
and To
bago
Baham
as
Mauriti
us
St Lu
cia
Barbad
os
Seych
elles
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
DominicaMalt
a
Cypru
s
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Bermuda
Guam
Anguilla
Puerto Rico
Reunion
New Cale
donia
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
French
Polynesi
a
St Hele
na
Wall
is and Fu
tuna
British
Virgin Isl
ands
Aruba
American
Samoa
Niue
Cook Isla
nds
Greenlan
d0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Life expectancy at birth c 2000
Sovereign SNIJs
Data from http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/dyb/dyb2008.htm downloaded 2 August 2011 plus (for Comoros) http://apps.who.int/ghodata/?vid=710# accessed 2 August 2011 .
• There is also data at http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/socind/health.htm showing life expectancy estimates mainly for 2010-2015 but a few older figures) for 17 sovereigns and 16 SNIJs
• This gives a second chart with slightly different samples
Gilbert
Islan
ds - Kirib
ati
Comoros
Ellice
Islan
ds - Tu
valu
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
St Kitts-N
evis
Trinidad
and To
bago
Vanuatu
St Vincen
tTo
nga
Mauriti
us
St Lu
cia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
US Virg
in Islan
ds
Puerto Rico
Mayotte
Reunion
New Cale
donia
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
Guam
French
Polynesi
aAru
ba
Wall
is and Fu
tuna
St Hele
na
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Niue
Greenlan
d
Toke
lau0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 2010
Sovereigns SNIJs
Data from http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/socind/health.htm accessed 2 August 2011
Here again the SNIJs seem, if anything, a nose in front.
• On a population-weighted basis, in the first chart the sovereigns have average life expectancy at birth of 74.8 years and the SNIJs have an average of 77.7 years
• In the second, more up-to-date, data set, the population-weighted averages are 76.5 years for the sovereigns and 76.83 for the SNIJs
• This provisionally says that the SNIJs have certainly come out no worse, and may have come out ahead
How about trends over time?
• An historical supplement to the UN Demographic Yearbook at http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/dyb/dybhist.htm has historical data from 1948 to 1997
• The coverage matches some of the 1946 UN sample of small islands
• A quick plot of the data (next slide) indicates that – there is convergence over time (low starters improve more rapidly than high
starters)– Territories that started out with low life expectance were somewhat more likely to
become sovereigns– Solomon Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, and Vanuatu, may be slipping in the past
decade, whereas no SNIJs slipped– SNIJs are among the best performers but have shared the space with plenty of
sovereigns– There does seem some basis for suggesting that the poorest colonies were
especially apt to get independence
1948
-50
1950
-195
5
1955
-196
0
1960
-196
5
1965
-197
0
1970
-197
5
1975
-198
0
1980
-198
5
1985
-199
0
1990
-199
5
2010
-15
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Life Expectancy Data 1948-2010 for UN 1946 list countries Hawaii
Seychelles
Antigua and Barbuda
Dominica
Saint Lucia
St Vincent & Grenadines
Singapore
Fiji
Bermuda
American Samoa
Cook Islands
Cyprus
Malta
Puerto Rico
Netherlands Antilles
Bahamas
Guam
Trinidad & Tobago
Barbados
New Caledonia
Reunion
Greenland
St Kitts & Nevis
Kiribati
Mauritius
French Polynesia
Solomon Islands
Vanuatu
Comoros
Here’s the movie…
Kiribati
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
Trinidad
& To
bago
Vanuatu
Seych
elles
St Vincen
t & Gren
adines
Mauriti
us
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Dominica
St Kitts &
Nevis
Saint L
ucia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
New Cale
doniaGuam
French
Polynesi
a
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
Bermuda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 1950-55
SovereignsSNIJs
Kiribati
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
Trinidad
& To
bago
Vanuatu
Seych
elles
St Vincen
t & Gren
adines
Mauriti
us
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Dominica
St Kitts &
Nevis
Saint L
ucia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
New Cale
doniaGuam
French
Polynesi
a
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
Bermuda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 1955-60
SovereignsSNIJs
Kiribati
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
Trinidad
& To
bago
Vanuatu
Seych
elles
St Vincen
t & Gren
adines
Mauriti
us
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Dominica
St Kitts &
Nevis
Saint L
ucia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
New Cale
doniaGuam
French
Polynesi
a
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
Bermuda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 1960-65
SovereignsSNIJs
Kiribati
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
Trinidad
& To
bago
Vanuatu
Seych
elles
St Vincen
t & Gren
adines
Mauriti
us
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Dominica
St Kitts &
Nevis
Saint L
ucia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
New Cale
doniaGuam
French
Polynesi
a
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
Bermuda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 1965-70
SovereignsSNIJs
Kiribati
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
Trinidad
& To
bago
Vanuatu
Seych
elles
St Vincen
t & Gren
adines
Mauriti
us
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Dominica
St Kitts &
Nevis
Saint L
ucia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
New Cale
doniaGuam
French
Polynesi
a
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
Bermuda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 1970-75
SovereignsSNIJs
Kiribati
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
Trinidad
& To
bago
Vanuatu
Seych
elles
St Vincen
t & Gren
adines
Mauriti
us
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Dominica
St Kitts &
Nevis
Saint L
ucia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
New Cale
doniaGuam
French
Polynesi
a
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
Bermuda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 1975-80
SovereignsSNIJs
Kiribati
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
Trinidad
& To
bago
Vanuatu
Seych
elles
St Vincen
t & Gren
adines
Mauriti
us
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Dominica
St Kitts &
Nevis
Saint L
ucia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
New Cale
doniaGuam
French
Polynesi
a
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
Bermuda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 1980-85
SovereignsSNIJs
Kiribati
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
Trinidad
& To
bago
Vanuatu
Seych
elles
St Vincen
t & Gren
adines
Mauriti
us
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Dominica
St Kitts &
Nevis
Saint L
ucia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
New Cale
doniaGuam
French
Polynesi
a
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
Bermuda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 1985-90
SovereignsSNIJs
Kiribati
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
Trinidad
& To
bago
Vanuatu
Seych
elles
St Vincen
t & Gren
adines
Mauriti
us
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Dominica
St Kitts &
Nevis
Saint L
ucia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
New Cale
doniaGuam
French
Polynesi
a
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
Bermuda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 1990-95
SovereignsSNIJs
Kiribati
Comoros
Solomon Isl
ands Fij
i
Trinidad
& To
bago
Vanuatu
Seych
elles
St Vincen
t & Gren
adines
Mauriti
us
Antigua a
nd Barbuda
Dominica
St Kitts &
Nevis
Saint L
ucia
Baham
as
Barbad
os
Cypru
sMalt
a
Singa
pore
Hawaii
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Netherl
ands A
ntilles
New Cale
doniaGuam
French
Polynesi
a
Cook Isla
nds
American
Samoa
Greenlan
d
Bermuda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life expectancy at birth 2010-15
SovereignsSNIJs
Sample 2: the 1963 UN list
• The UN role in decolonisation became strongly pro-active in 1960• Resolution 1514 set out a Declaration on Granting of Independence to Colonial
Countries and Peoples• Resolution 1541 spelled out the types of political change that could relieve
governing powers of their reporting obligations under Article 73(e). • In 1961, General Assembly Resolution 1654 established a Special Committee to
push decolonisation along.• In 1963 a new list of non-self-governing territories was produced
– This list had 65 territories, of which 40 were small islands or collections of small islands– When decomposed into identifiable islands and island groups the list contains 42– Of these, 26 had been on the 1946 list and 16 were new additions – mainly the
Portuguese island colonies, the US Pacific Trust Territories, Nauru, HongKong, and several small Caribbean islands that missed the cut in 1946 or were buried in larger entities then
• Spectacular disappearances since1946 were the French territories which were accepted as having been decolonised by integration into the French Republic in 1947, and the Netherlands Antilles which had been similarly integrated to the Kingdom of the Netherlands in 1951
• The same procedures have been repeated for the 1963 sample
Listed entity Constituent islands Administering power
New Hebrides Vanuatu France & UK Cook Islands Cook Islands New Zealand Niue Niue New Zealand Tokelau Tokelau New Zealand Bahamas Bahamas UK Barbados Barbados UK Bermuda Bermuda UK Dominica Dominica UK Falkland Islands Falkland Islands UK Fiji Fiji UK Antigua Antigua UK
British Virgin Islands British Virgin Islands UK
Montserrat Montserrat UK St Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla
St Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla UK
Malta Malta UK Mauritius Mauritius UK St Helena and Dependencies St Helena UK St Lucia St Lucia UK St Vincent St Vincent UK Seychelles Seychelles UK Singapore Singapore UK Gilbert and Ellice Islands
Gilbert Islands - Kiribati UK
Listed entity Constituent islands Administering power
Ellice Islands - Tuvalu UK
Solomon Islands Protectorate Solomon Islands UK Pitcairn Island Pitcairn Island UK American Samoa American Samoa USA Guam Guam USA US Virgin Islands US Virgin Islands USA Cape Verde Islands Cape Verde Islands Portugal Sao Tome e Principe Sao Tome e Principe Portugal Macau Macau Portugal Cocos (Keeling) Islands Cocos (Keeling) Islands Australia Cayman Islands Cayman Islands UK Grenada Grenada UK Hong Kong Hong Kong UK Turks and Caicos Islands
Turks and Caicos Islands UK
New Guinea New Guinea Australia Nauru Nauru Australia Trust Territory of the Pacific
Federation of Micronesia USA
Marshall Islands USA
Palau USA
Northern Marianas Islands USA
Islands in the UN’s 1963 list of non-self-governing territories
French Overseas Territories and Departments Overseas Departments Other history Since Guadeloupe 1946 Martinique 1946 French Guiana* 1946 Reunion 1946 Mayotte 2011 TOM 1976-2003 Overseas Collectivities French Polynesia 2003 TOM 1946-2003 Saint-Pierre et Miquelon 2003 TOM 1976-2003 Wallis and Futuna 2003 TOM 1961-2003 St Martin 2003 Formerly part of Guadeloupe St Barthelemy 2003 Formerly part of Guadeloupe Special Collectivity New Caledonia 1999 TOM 1946-1998
The only non-island Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_departments_and_territories_of_France accessed 1 August 2011
• The new sample contains 24 territories that have became sovereign states and 18
• that are SNIJs.
• Again there are three large territories with 2011 populations around the 5 million mark: Hong Kong, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea
• Excluding these gives the second chart when we ask whether it was just big islands that became independent
Naur
uEl
lice
Islan
ds -
Tuva
luPa
lau
St K
itts-
Nevi
s-An
guill
aM
arsh
all I
sland
sDo
min
icaAn
tigua
Gilb
ert I
sland
s - K
iriba
tiSe
yche
lles
Gren
ada
St V
ince
ntFe
dera
tion
of M
icron
esia
Sao
Tom
e e
Prin
cipe
St Lu
ciaVa
nuat
uBa
rbad
osBa
ham
asM
alta
Cape
Ver
de Is
land
sSo
lom
on Is
land
sFi
jiM
auriti
usSi
ngap
ore
New
Gui
nea
Hong
Kon
gM
acau
Guam
US V
irgin
Isla
nds
Nort
hern
Mar
iana
s Isla
nds
Berm
uda
Amer
ican
Sam
oaCa
yman
Isla
nds
Turk
s and
Cai
cos I
sland
sBr
itish
Virg
in Is
land
sCo
ok Is
land
sSt
Hel
ena
Mon
tser
rat
Falk
land
Isla
nds
Niue
Toke
lau
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Island territories listed by the UN in 1963, arrayed by size and political status as at 2011
Sovereigns SNIJs
Popu
latio
n
Naur
uEl
lice
Islan
ds -
Tuva
luPa
lau
St K
itts-
Nevi
s-An
guill
aM
arsh
all I
sland
sDo
min
icaAn
tigua
Gilb
ert I
sland
s - K
iriba
tiSe
yche
lles
Gren
ada
St V
ince
ntFe
dera
tion
of M
icron
esia
Sao
Tom
e e
Prin
cipe
St Lu
ciaVa
nuat
uBa
rbad
osBa
ham
asM
alta
Cape
Ver
de Is
land
sSo
lom
on Is
land
sFi
jiM
auriti
usM
acau
Guam
US V
irgin
Isla
nds
Nort
hern
Mar
iana
s Isla
nds
Berm
uda
Amer
ican
Sam
oaCa
yman
Isla
nds
Turk
s and
Cai
cos I
sland
sBr
itish
Virg
in Is
land
sCo
ok Is
land
sSt
Hel
ena
Mon
tser
rat
Falk
land
Isla
nds
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Island territories listed by the UN in 1963, arrayed by size and po-litical status as at 2011, excluding ingapore, HongKong and PNG
Sovereigns SNIJs
Popu
latio
n
Here selection by size seems more apparent
• Again, however, the range of sizes in both groups is very wide
• With HongKong, Singapore and PNG excluded,– The sovereigns have mean population of 245,000
with standard deviation of 302,000– The SNIJs have mean population of 75,000 with
standard deviation 126,000
• Conclusion is still that there is a lot more than size driving the choice of political status
GDP per capita today
• Again there are data problems with only 2 SNIJs from the list in the Penn World Tables 6.3, and only 3 in the WDI
• So again at this stage I’m using the CIA and UN data
New
Gui
nea
Sao
Tom
e e
Prin
cipe
Solo
mon
Isla
nds
Gilb
ert I
sland
s - K
iriba
ti
Vanu
atu
Cape
Ver
de Is
land
s
Fede
ratio
n of
Mic
rone
sia
Ellic
e Is
land
s - T
uval
u
Mar
shal
l Isla
nds
Nau
ru Fiji
St V
ince
nt
Dom
inic
a
Mau
ritius
St L
ucia
Gre
nada
Pala
u
St K
itts-
Nev
is-An
guill
a
Antig
ua
Seyc
helle
s
Barb
ados
Mal
ta
Baha
mas
Sing
apor
e
Caym
an Is
land
s
Briti
sh V
irgin
Isla
nds
Hon
g Ko
ng
Mac
au
Turk
s and
Cai
cos I
sland
s
Cook
Isla
nds
Mon
tser
rat
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Per capita GDP at 2005, US dollars at 2005 prices, UN data
Sovereigns SNIJs
2005
US4
Gilbert
Islands -
Kiribati
Sao Tome e Prin
cipe
Solomon Isl
ands
St Helena
Vanuatu
Grenada
St Lu
cia Fiji
Seych
elles
Palau
Mauritius
Bahamas
Singapore
Hong Kong
Falkla
nd Islands
Cayman Isl
ands
US Virg
in Islands
Turks and Caico
s Islands
Niue
Montserra
t0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Per capita GDP at 2005, US dollars at 2005 prices, CIA data
Sovereigns SNIJs
2005
US$
McElroy-Parry CIA PWT 6.3 WDI UN Statistical data current US$
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Population-weighted average per capita GDP: various sources and samples from 1963 UN list
Sovereigns SNIJs
US$
at 2
005
Sam
ple
= 25
Sam
ple
= 15
Sam
ple
= 22
Sam
ple
= 2
Sam
ple
= 18
Sam
ple
= 3
Sam
ple
= 24
Sam
ple
= 7
Again all the results point in the same direction despite diversity of sources and gaps in the data
• There’s a wide spread of incomes in both sets of islands, which means one can’t say that any particular island would necessarily have ended up better by changing its historical track out of colonialism
• But in terms of tendencies, the SNIJ success stories seem to outnumber the sovereigns
The next stage is to make serious progress on time-series data for GDP per head and imports per head
• One possibility will be pair-wise comparisons of entities that share some characteristic but followed different paths. There the bi problem is to make sure international comparabiity is maintained….
• Look, e.g., at the UN data for three former French-dominated Pacific territories….
19651967
19691971
19731975
19771979
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
UN Statistical Division GNI per capita US$ at 2005 prices
New CaledoniaFrench PolynesiaVanuatu