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Space Weather Models running in
real-time or forecasting mode
Yihua Zheng
SW REDI 2014
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Flare Prediction ModelASAP (Automatic Solar Activity Prediction)http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/asap/
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Flare Prediction ModelASSA (Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer)
Provided by
Korean Space Weather Center
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Flare Prediction ModelMAG4 (UAH/MSFC, Falconer et al.)
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SEP predictionREleASE (Relativistic electron Alert System for Exploration)
• Proton flux forecast model based on electron measurements by SOHO/COSTEP
• developed by Arik Posner (NASA/HQ)
• Reference: Posner, A. (2007), Up to 1-hour forecasting of radiation hazards from solar energetic ion events with relativistic electrons, Space Weather, 5, S05001, doi:10.1029/2006SW000268.
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RELeASE: example
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SEP predictionUMA proton flux forecast
• Núñez, M. (2011), Predicting solar energetic proton events (E > 10 MeV), Space Weather, 9, S07003, doi 10.1029/2010SW000640.
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UMASEP model
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WSA+ENLIL
TextPredicting
transport/impacts of CME
Modeling and Predicting of the
ambient solar wind
primary and popular
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SWMF
• the module - Global MHD model of Earth’s magnetosphere - is heavily used
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SWMF
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Text
Fok Ring Current Model
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Fok Radiation Belt Model
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Auroral ModelOvation Prime
Newell et al., 2007, JGR
Text
empirical model
based on ACE measurement
s at L1
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CTIPeCoupled Thermosphere Ionosphere
Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model
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PBMODscintillation model
• http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/RoR_WWW/pbmod-rt/PBMOD-Text.html
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ABBYNormalHF signal
absorption• http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/models/
modelinfo.php?model=ABBYNormal
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predicted Kp, Dst
• Kp based onNewell et al. formula
• Dst from SWMF
• Dst from WINDMI
• http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/models/modelinfo.php?model=WINDMI
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GIC illustration
courtesy: Antti pulkkinen
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GICrequires knowledge from the
sun to mud