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Spatial disparities of adaptation to crisis in
China and its consequences
Maria CsanádiInstitute of Economics
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
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Outline Hypothesis: impact of external dynamics on
system transformation Analytical approach: the concept of transformation Adaptation pressures caused by the crisis Sensitivity to adaptation pressures Spatial impacts of the crisis Spatial disparities in efforts to overcome the crisis Long-term spatial impact of short-term
interventions
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Hypothesis: sensitivity to the impact of global dynamics Global growth, economic integration
Direct impact: macroeconomic growth Indirect impact:
Acceleration of economic transformation Increase of political legitimacy Postponement of preconditions for political
transformation Global recession, economic integration
Direct impact: macroeconomic decline Indirect impact:
Slow-down of economic transformation Decline of political legitimacy Formation of preconditions for political
transformation
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System transformation in party-states
The party-state network is retreating as a social system from politically monopolized economic, political and social sub-spheres, while
The sub-spheres of a new social system are emerging outside of it Order, speed, conditions of transformation of sub-fields vary
according to the distribution of power in party-state networks Directions and speed of development of one subfield may change
temporary or for longer-term due to external and internal impacts
Retreatingparty-state
network
Emerging new system
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Transformation during global growth
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External impact: decline of export- and import growth
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Decline of the GDP and FDI growth
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No contraction, only slow-down of relative speed
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Uncertainties Time-span of prevalence of external and
internal adaptation pressures Sensitivity of the transformation process to
adaptation pressures and to their extension in time
Extent of political sensitivity and adaptive reactions on the short term
Reversibility of the slow-down process due to changes in external and internal impacts
Spatial propagation of adaptation pressures and reactions
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Adaptation pressures prevailed short-term
Source: ChinaData Center MU
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Adaptation pressures prevailed short-term
Source: ChinaData Center MU
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Even short-term pressures provoqued sensitive reactions
Source: ChinaData Center MU
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Even short-term pressures provoqued sensitive reactions
Source: ChinaData Center MU
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Behind the scene: expanding state role through the stimulus plan4,000,000,000,000.00 CNY
= 612,062,609,166.63 USD
= GDP 13% (2008)
Source: Economic observer On-line eeo.com.cn China's Stimulus Package: A Breakdown of Spending. 2009.03.07
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Compensatory role of state intervention: infrastructure building
Source: ChinaData Center MU
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Spatial focus of increased FDI
Source: ChinaData Center MU
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Spatial focus of growth of investment in fixed assets
Source: ChinaData Center MU
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The dynamics of output of the state-owned field in the manufacturing
Source: ChinaData Center MU, NBS Regional Statistics
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Activized market field at central-western regions in manufacturing
Source: ChinaData Center MU, NBS Regional Statistics
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Dynamics of the output at state-owned field in the construction industry
Source: ChinaData Center MU, NBS Regional Statistics
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Activized market: dynamics of the market field in the construction
Source: ChinaData Center MU, NBS Regional Statistics
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Global crisis impact on system transformation
Time-span of external and internal adaptation pressures Global crisis exerted temporary adaptation pressures Incite different adaptations that have different consequences on
transformation Differences in impact and reactions in space
Direction of transformation dynamics: No simultaneous contraction of the state and market fields
Speed of transformation: Instead of contraction, only temporary slow-down occurred Reason of slow-down: the temporary decline of the market field and
expansion of the state-owned field due to intervention Short-term adaptation preserved political legitimacy
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Mismatch of state intervention and crisis impact Mismatch Crisis direct impact Stimulus plan direct
impact
In location Coastal Central and western
Priority sectors Manufacture Infrastructural
Trade orientation Export Domestic
Participant ownership
Private State owned
Enterprize size SME Large
Affiliation Foreign Domestic
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Longer term consequences of short-term intervention The focus mismatch of crisis and government
intervention has multiple dimensions and multiple consequences Regional focus of state intervention might decrease
spatial disparties of development in several dymensions
Sectoral focus of state intervention in infrastructure compensated decline in manufacturing: growth of internal demand activates other sectors and decreases export dependency
Ownership focus of state intervention expanded the state sphere but also activized the market sphere
Size focus of state intervention also activized SMEs
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Questions for further research How do these consequences appear in
The spatial disparities of regional development, The economic, export and labor force structures Enterprise investment behavior, trade orientation and spatial
strategies What are the differences among those activized by state
intervention and those directly impacted by the crisis The temporary and longer-term migrant spatial routes,
migrant motivations and bargaining capacties and living conditions and migrant gender structure
Economic transformation Field-work in collaboration with BNU, Fudan, IE CASS
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Thank you for your attention