![Page 1: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Role of Statisticians and Statistical Science
SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP
Global Food Security: Achieving food security in the face of climate change
Dr Bronwyn Harch| Deputy Director
7th September, 2012
![Page 2: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social & economic access to sufficient, safe & nutritious food to meet their dietary needs & food preferences for an active & healthy life. United Nations Food & Agriculture Organisation
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 2
![Page 3: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Key Challenges
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 3
Growing from 7 billion people today to 9 billion by 2050
1 in 6 undernourished 1.5 billion overweight
1.4 billion live on <USD$1.25 / day
1.5 billion depend on degrading land
1.3 billion tonnes of food wasted
each year
7.5 billion USD lost to extreme weather in 2010
200+ million more hungry after 2007/8 price spikes
12 million ha of additional agricultural land degraded/year
Beddington et al. 2011 available at www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission
![Page 4: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Key Elements to Food Insecurity
Converging threats from climate change, population growth & unsustainable resource use
Resource competition, land degradation & greenhouse gas emissions
Food price volatility & conflicts associated with food shortages
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 4
Ph
oto
: In
tern
atio
nal
Ric
e R
esea
rch
Inst
itu
te (
IRR
I)
![Page 5: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Commission on Sustainable Agriculture & Climate Change
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 5
• Established by the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
• Program on Climate Change, Agriculture & Food Security (CCAFS) with support from the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development (GDPRD)
• 13 eminent natural and social scientists from around the world
• Evidence-based policy recommendations: A ‘road map’ for policy makers Released in November 2011
• Full Report released 28th March 2012
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/commission/
![Page 6: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Major Findings
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 6
Ph
oto
: In
tern
atio
nal
Ric
e R
esea
rch
Inst
itu
te (
IRR
I)
Business as usual will not bring food security & environmental sustainability
Need to simultaneously address global agriculture within the context of the food system & climate change
The interconnected nature of these challenges demands an integrated management approach
The world’s poor are less resilient
![Page 7: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Seven Recommendations
1. Integrate food security & sustainable agriculture into global & national policies
2. Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture & food systems in the next decade
3. Target populations & sectors most vulnerable to climate change & food insecurity
4. Reshape food access & consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional needs are met & foster sustainable eating habits worldwide
5. Reduce loss & waste in food systems – particularly from infrastructure, farming practices, processing, distribution & household habits
6. Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas emissions & other negative environmental impacts
7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that encompass human & ecological dimensions
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 7
![Page 8: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Key insights related to Australia’s interest in food security
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 8
![Page 9: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
• Australia has a high level of food security
o export ~60% of food production
o produce 1% of world’s food; 3% of traded food
• Share same health/diet issues with higher income countries
• Land and water are increasingly contested
o for food, fibre, fuel and carbon sinks
• Droughts and floods constrain agricultural outputs
• Strong population growth is fuelling community debate on “sustainability”
• National policy related developments and dialogue
• International engagement around food security
Australia’s interests in food security
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 9
DAFF 2012. FOODmap. An analysis of the Australian food supply chain
![Page 10: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Action in needed on three fronts
1) reducing demand
2) sustaining existing productivity
3) filling the production gap
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 10
![Page 11: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Food Demand Scenarios 1960 to 2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Glo
bal
Fo
od
Dem
and
(Pe
taca
l/d
ay)
Year
Plus 6 or 12 % diversion to biofuels
Plus 20 % wastage loss in value chain
9B people + consumption increase in developing countries
9B people
8B people , no consumption increae
![Page 12: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
A ‘Mega-wedge’ of Food Demand
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Glo
bal
Fo
od
De
man
d (
Pe
taca
l/d
ay)
Year
Filling the Production
Demand
![Page 13: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ?
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Glo
bal
Fo
od
De
man
d (
Pe
taca
l/d
ay)
Year
Filling the Production
Demand
Avoiding losses of
productive capacity
![Page 14: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ?
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 14
Filling the Production
Demand
Avoiding losses of
productive capacity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Glo
bal
Fo
od
Dem
and
(Pe
taca
l/d
ay)
Year
Reducing the
Demand
![Page 15: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge ?
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 15
Reducing the demand trajectory
• Reduce waste along the food value chain
• Reducing over-consumption in human diets
• Rebalancing livestock component of future diets
• Develop “smart biofuel” policies & technologies
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Glo
bal
Fo
od
De
man
d (
Pe
taca
l/d
ay)
Year
![Page 16: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Glo
bal
Fo
od
De
man
d (
Pe
taca
l/d
ay)
Year
Avoiding losses of productive capacity • Maintaining pest & disease resistance
& biosecurity
• Avoiding further soil & water degradation
• Climate change mitigation without loss of food security
• Adapting to unavoidable climate change
Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge?
![Page 17: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Glo
bal
Fo
od
De
man
d (
Pe
taca
l/d
ay)
Year
Filling the production shortfall
• Net expansion of the land footprint
• Net expansion of irrigation footprint
• Expanding aquaculture based production
• Increasing production intensity
• Closing yield gaps (including raising eco-efficiency)
• Raising yield ceilings through new technologies
Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge?
![Page 18: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 19
Pathways ahead for the Govt and Industry?
![Page 20: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Translation...
Agri-environmental stewardship
Carbon storage
Productivity
Greenhouse gas abatement
Profitability
Livelihood
![Page 21: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Agri-environmental stewardship
Carbon storage Productivity
Greenhouse gas abatement
Profitability Livelihood
![Page 22: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 22
Pathways ahead for the Govt and Industry?
Contribution of statisticians & statistical science?
◦ innovation ◦ partnerships ◦ knowledge services
![Page 23: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
What is Agri-Environmental Informatics?
Enhancing * environmental
accounting
* landscape stewardship
* environmental services
* community well-being
* competitive edge
Modelling of Key Processes
Next Generation
Data Acquisition
Technologies
Enabling Risk Informed Decision Making
Design, Integration & Synthesis of
Observational Data
![Page 24: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Reflections: innovation, partnerships knowledge services
Deep engagement with stakeholders
adoption and impact
Strong disciplinary science across a range of disciplines
Transdisciplinary integrators and modellers
space, time
competing objectives
High level visualisation and communication technologies
space, time
risk profiles
uncertainty A mosaic of native ecosystems, plantations, and agriculture on Kangaroo Island, SA.
![Page 25: Ssai Webinar Achieving Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change Harch Sep 7 2012 V1](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022060117/5584fa0cd8b42aae2f8b462d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Thank you Sustainable Agriculture Flagship Dr Bronwyn Harch Deputy Director
t +61 7 3833 5631 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au/SAF