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STATE OF CANADA’SCONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT
3RD ANNUAL
JUNE 2012
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Manning Centre for Building DemocracyPO Box 1988, STN MCalgary, AB T2P 2M2
Tel: 403.255.8100Email: [email protected]
www.manningcentre.ca
Cover: William Kurelek, Manitoba Party, 1964 © National Gallery of Canada
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The Manning Centre for Building Democracy
is a conservative-oriented “do tank” that
equips future grassroots activists and
political leaders with the ideas, skills and
networks necessary to make an effective
contribution to Canadian politics.
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June 2012
The Manning Centre exists to help build Canada’s conservative movement.
That’s why I hope our 2012 State of the Conservative Movement Report will
help conservatives – by laying out our successes, our challenges and the
opportunities ahead.
We can’t afford to be complacent. Though we have a majority Conservative
government today, the Manning Centre is concerned with the long-term vision.
On that note, I want to announce the opening of Canada’s first ever “centre
of the conservative movement” – slated for this fall. Thanks to generous
philanthropists, a new state-of-the-art building will house the Manning Centre
and become a “must-go” destination for conservatives of all stripes.
Set in the heart of Calgary, it will contain a lecture theatre and a strategic
planning centre for campaigns, as well as the latest communications and video
conferencing technology.
It will also be the home base of our newly redesigned School of Practical
Politics which will help equip political activists with the skills they need.
This is not only a Canadian first and a notable achievement for the movement –
it’s also the culmination of a long-standing dream of mine.
Preston Manning CC
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This “annual report” on the state of the conservative movement includes three parts:
The report was prepared by Manning Centre Vice President Darrel Reid and Director of
Communications Olivier Ballou. The polling data was gathered by Dr. Andre Turcotte. The
electoral maps were created by data expert Mitch Wexler. The conservative infrastructure
data was generated by researcher Joel Wiens.
An overview of the electoral performance of conservative-oriented political parties, as well as a look at potential supporters.
BAROMETER POLL PART 1
ELECTORAL MAPSPART 2
CONSERVATIVE INFRASTRUCTUREPART 3
An examination of the current state of Canada’s conservative-oriented think tanks, advocacy groups, training programs, communications vehicles, and fundraising capabilities.
An annual public opinion survey commissioned by the Manning Centre helps us understand Canadian attitudes towards the role of government and conservative ideas.
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To spread conservative ideas and
policies, conservatives first need to
know where Canadians stand. The
Manning Centre enlisted the help of
public opinion expert Dr. Andre Turcotte
to design this year’s survey. 2,067 online
interviews were conducted between
February 10th-20th, 2012 (a margin of
error of 2.4%, 19 times out of 20)*.
The past two annual Manning Centre
barometer polls found low levels of
confidence in government’s ability to
tackle big challenges. This year’s poll
confirms our earlier findings. A majority
of Canadians have lost faith in “big
government solutions to big problems”–
good news for those of us who want
governments to do a few things well
rather than attempting to do everything
and succeeding at little. When Canadians
are asked to whom they turn first if they
have an economic or social problem, a
majority first mention themselves, their
family, and their community before they
mention government.
So what, then, do these Canadians expect
of government? The most frequent
answer – across all regions and from
both men and women – was that while
people want to do things for themselves,
they want government to “help” –
sometimes by simply getting out of the
way, sometimes by leading as in matters
of personal and national security, but
most often by “facilitating, enabling,
and partnering with others to get
things done.”
*Full results are available at www.manningcentre.ca/poll
GOVERNMENT AS FACILITATOR
BAROMETER POLL
THE MANNING CENTRE BAROMETER is a snapshot of Canadian
attitudes towards government as well as conservative ideas. The first Barometer was
conducted in 2010, and the Manning Centre intends to repeat this public opinion
research annually in order to track Canadian attitudes over time.
7*Full results are available at www.manningcentre.ca/poll
More than three in four Canadians
believe that governments moving
into the role of “facilitator” or
“partner” would constitute a “positive”
development. This number ranges
from 66% in BC and Alberta to 82% in
Quebec. It also holds across party lines.
This poses the question: If not
government, then who? The charts
below show which non-governmental
entities Canadians think are best suited
to help tackle various issues.
14%
64%
16%
6%
SUPPORT FOR “GOVERNMENT AS FACILITATOR”
Somewhat positive
Very positiveVery negative
Somewhat negative
CHALLENGES OF AGING POPULATION
WHO SHOULD HELP GOVERNMENT DO A BETTER JOB?
DEALING WITH MORAL ISSUESHELPING THE LESS FORTUNATE
TOMORROW’S ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
15%
16%
27%
Not-for-profit orgs
Charitable orgs
Community orgs
15%
19%
21%
Community orgs
Religious orgs
Individual Canadians
11%
19%
21%
Interest groups
Individual Canadians
Community orgs
11%
15%
22%
Small business owners
Large corporations
Members of financial sector
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Our previous research suggests that
Canadians are increasingly aligning
themselves with a series of values
identified as “conservative”. In this
year’s poll, we wanted to test whether
this realignment was borne out in the
perceptions of Canadians. In other
words, how is “being a conservative”
viewed by respondents? The results
are mixed. While conservatives are
broadly seen as fiscally responsible,
they are also perceived as self-serving
and overly aligned with the interests
of business. What does this mean?
Conservatives have a lot of work left to
do to expand the movement. Solidifying
and expanding our support begins with
capitalizing on the clear conservative
brand image: Conservatives are seen
as competent managers of the economy
at the macro level. However, Canadians
remain skeptical of the government’s
ability to address their own issues at the
micro (personal) level.
FISCALLY-RESPONSIBLECLOSE-MINDED
WEALTHY PRO-BUSINESSTRADITIONAL VALUES
SELF-SERVING
STATUS QUO
FISCALLY-RESPONSIBLESELF-RELIANT PRUDENT SMALL GOVERNMENT
PRO-BUSINESSTRADITIONAL VALUES
HOW CONSERVATIVES SEE THEMSELVES:
HOW OTHERS SEE CONSERVATIVES:
The larger the word in the “word cloud” the more frequent the response.
BAROMETER POLL
MAINSTREAM CONSERVATISM
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DISGRUNTLED DEMOCRATS
In last year’s survey we observed that a large portion of the electorate has become
seriously disengaged from political parties, leaders, and elections. These voters do not
believe politicians share their worldview, enter public life for the right reasons, or focus
on the correct things once there. The results from this year’s survey were no more
encouraging.
In his address to the 2012 Networking Conference, Preston Manning outlined his concern
about the declining trust in politics and those who participate in it. He argued for “the
need for better training of political practitioners – in particular, training in ethical politics
and the ethical use of the new political technologies from automated voter calling to the
use of social media.”
FEELING TOWARD POLITICIANS
4%
1%
42%
21%
6% 34%
50%
14%
27%
1980
2012
Very favourable Somewhat favourable No opinion Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable
OPPORTUNITIES
• Canadians are ready to consider a new relationship with their government – that of “government as facilitator”
• Find ways to better communicate. For example, make the link between Canada’s overall economic performance and people’s own circumstances
• A host of potential supporters are within reach (see p.12)
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Conservatives continue to show
improved electoral results in the past
year, holding onto four governments
(Yukon, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland
and Labrador, and Alberta). There is an
opportunity for gains in Ontario when
the minority government in that province
falls. We are at or near a high-water
mark, and the challenge for conservative-
oriented parties in the coming years
will be to improve upon that result or to
prolong this peak.
However, all is not rosy. A family feud
in British Columbia may contribute to a
decrease in conservative representation.
Albertan voters have struggled to choose
which conservative vision to endorse.
In May 2012, the governing PCs won
another majority, although the Wildrose
Alliance Party made substantial gains. In
Ontario, the PC Party failed to penetrate
the Toronto area – including places
where the federal Conservatives had
made inroads. Finally, the newly formed
Quebec CAQ party has disappointed many
conservative-minded Quebecers.
VOTE SHARE
CONSERVATIVE-ORIENTED FEDERAL AND PROV. PARTIES (AS OF MAY 2012)
49.3%507/1028 total seats
10.5 M votes
38.8%SEAT SHARE
ELECTORAL MAPS
WINNING ELECTIONS tells us how well conservative-oriented political
parties are getting their message across and winning support. While the Manning Centre
Barometer analyzes the opinions of Canadians, electoral maps help us see how this
translates into votes.
*“Conservative-oriented parties” refers to the federal Conservative Party, as well as the primary Conservative party in each province, with the exception of Alberta where the Wildrose Alliance Party is also included. It also includes the BC Liberals, Action Democratique du Québec (ADQ), as well as the Yukon Party.
Con
serva
tive-o
rien
ted
partie
s now
hold
ove
r 500
fed
era
l, pro
vincia
l, an
d te
rritoria
l seats, se
ven
of
12 g
ove
rnm
en
ts, an
d 4
9.3
per ce
nt o
f the 1
028
com
bin
ed
seats a
cross th
e co
un
try.
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PROV. ELECTIONS
SINCE M
AY 2011YK: +1
SK: +11ON
: +12
PEI: +2
NL: -6
MB:
NO CH
ANGE
IN SEATS
✔ W
IN
✔✔
✔
+/-
SEAT CHAN
GE
AB: +6
✔
GREATER VANCOU
VER
CALGARY
EDMON
TON
WIN
NIPEG
Con
serva
tive-o
rien
ted
partie
s now
hold
ove
r 500
fed
era
l, pro
vincia
l, an
d te
rritoria
l seats, se
ven
of
12 g
ove
rnm
en
ts, an
d 4
9.3
per ce
nt o
f the 1
028
com
bin
ed
seats a
cross th
e co
un
try.
PROVINCIAL RIDIN
GS-100
-40
-25
-10
0
10
25
40
100CON
SERVATIVE MARGIN
OF VICTORYTORONTO
MON
TREALOTTAW
A
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In order to win elections, conservatives
must continue to identify new supporters.
Demographic research commissioned by
the Manning Centre shows that there
are untapped pools of “near customers”:
voters whose demographics, attitudes
and past voting habits should predispose
them to support conservative-oriented
parties – but who do not consistently do
so. One way to identify these potential
supporters is to overlay maps showing
federal election results with results
from other elections and demographic
data. Last year we examined the
difference between federal Conservative
results and those of Toronto mayoralty
candidate Rob Ford. We also looked
at Conservative support among ethnic
voters in Brampton West. This year
we continued our search for near
customers, including a closer look at
the BC Lower Mainland (see p.13).
HOW TO SPOT A NEAR CUSTOMER
• Between the ages of 41 and 50
• High school or college educated
• Earns between $20 - $50K / year
• A significant group (21%) has only been in Canada between 4 and 8 years
• Even more likely than others to be self-reliant or turn to their families to find solutions to their problems
ELECTORAL MAPS
NEAR CUSTOMERS
URBAN GREENS
MORE NEAR CUSTOMERS
Age 25-34, single or married with no kids
Caucasian, educated, high income
Strong work ethic and family values
Eg. South Asian or Chinese Canadians
NEW CANADIANS BREAD AND BUTTER
Moderate income, often blue-collar
Vote on practical issues that directly affect them
• Fully one-third did not vote in the last federal election
• 58% are interested in politics (only 14% have no interest in politics)
• Tend to equate being a conservative to “being slow to embrace change”
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BREAD AND BUTTER
In the last federal election,
Conservatives continued to
increase their support in
the areas outside Vancouver
while making gains inside the
city. Both the NDP and CPC
gained from the hollowing
out of the Liberal vote.
2011 FEDERAL RESULTS
CHINESE CANADIAN
BREAD AND BUTTER
Increased support among
Chinese Canadians helped
Conservatives win the
ridings of Vancouver South
and Richmond.
Mapping “Bread and
Butter” (moderate
income, blue-collar)
Canadians paints a mixed
picture, with these voters
being from both low
income and high income
areas and having weak
party allegiances.
HIGH CPC SUPPORT
LOW CPC SUPPORT
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POLITICALACTIVISTS
COMMUNICATIONSCAPACITY
TRAINED HUMAN RESOURCES
INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL
MONEY
A steady stream of ideas
based on conservative values
Ways to get the message out, such as
newspapers, TV and social media
The means to fund all
of the above
Volunteers, staff, campaign
managers, and candidates
THERE ARE THE PARTIES, AND THEN THERE’S THE MOVEMENT Political parties organize majorities to win elections and pass
legislation. The conservative movement promotes conservative principles and
helps move the public onto conservative ground.
CONSERVATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE
Modern political parties are primarily
focused on running and winning the
next election. Many of the ideas, people,
and communication vehicles for doing
so must come from the movement.
This is where the “conservative
infrastructure” comes into play –
including conservative-oriented think
tanks, policy centres, interest groups,
training programs, and communication
channels. While the main task of the
conservative parties is to win elections,
the main task of the movement is to
build and maintain the infrastructure.
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MONEY
CANADIAN LEGISLATURES AND ELECTIONS
$1.2B
AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE
MOVEMENT
~$3B
$30MMOVEMENT
$64MPARTIES
In 2009-10, approximately $90
million was invested in conservative
parties ($64M) and movement
activities ($30M)*. These amounts
are minuscule in comparison with the
annual expenditures of the American
conservative movement or the annual
investments in the legislatures and
elections Canadian conservatives
seek to influence.
*This number is based on data from charitable organizations that are required to declare their revenues, as well as the think tanks and advocacy groups that were willing to share their annual budgets. These funds come from sympathetic foundations, companies and individuals.
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IDEAS
The conservative movement relies on research institutes and
think tanks for policy analysis and to generate and analyze
ideas. A number of these have a conservative philosophical
bent, while acting independently of the parties. Surveys by the
Manning Centre of the perceived strengths and weaknesses of
conservative intellectual capital suggest a need to strengthen
conservative positions on the environment, arts and culture,
science and technology, and social assistance.
Aboriginal Affairs Family and Community
Agriculture and Agri-business Federalism and Intergovernmental Affairs
Arts and Culture Fisheries and Oceans
Budget and Taxation Health
Cities and Infrastructure Human Resources and Labour
Citizenship and Immigration International Cooperation
Commerce and Industry International Trade
Courts, Constitution and Charter National Defence and Foreign Affairs
Crime and Justice Public Service
Democracy Religion and Society
Economic and Political Theory Science and Technology
Education Social Assistance
Environment and Natural Resources Transportation
Substantial activity Moderate activity Limited activity
COMMUNICATIONS
A significant development in the past year has been the arrival of Sun News Network –
featuring many overtly conservative commentators. Also notable has been the increased
prominence of right-of-centre views on mainstream Quebec TV and tabloid newspapers. C2C,
the conservative electronic journal, also continues to serve an important function.
CONSERVATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE
INTELLECTUAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
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TRAINING
The mission of the Manning Centre is to
equip political activists with the skills
they need to participate fully in Canada’s
democratic process, including winning
elections. In last year’s report, we
noted the lack of training opportunities
for conservatives. This year, we are
proud to announce the launch of our
newly redesigned School of Practical
Politics, whose purpose is to identify,
inspire and train the next generation of
political entrepreneurs.
The school will be based in a new state-
of-the-art facility set in the heart
of Calgary – the Manning Centre for
Democratic Education. Courses will also
be offered online and across the country.
OUR STUDENTS
• Volunteers
• Campus activists
• Constituency workers
• Campaign workers
• Those affiliated with think tanks and interest groups
• Future candidates
2011-12 PLANNED COURSES
• Student Activism
• Navigating critical socio-political intersections:
• Business-Politics
• Faith-Politics
• Economy-Environment
• Building & Managing a Grassroots Organization
• Political Fundraising and Investment
• Campaign Management:
• IssueCampaigns
• ElectoralCampaigns (Municipal, Provincial & Federal)
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The Manning Centre for Building
Democracy is a federally registered
non-profit organization founded in
2005 by Preston and Sandra Manning.
We embrace a vision of Canada strong
and free; a people united in common
purpose to serve our inalienable and
inherent right to life, liberty, and
property.
We believe that Canada’s purposes
and the needs of Canadians are
best served by the application of
conservative principles to public
policies – principles rooted first in
liberty, dignity, responsibility, and
tradition.
We envision a free and democratic
Canada where political entrepreneurs
have the courage, skills, knowledge,
ideas, and public support to
win campaigns and implement
conservative solutions to the
challenges of our times.
To identify, develop, and support
political entrepreneurs who can
advance our common vision of a free
and democratic Canada.
VISION
VALUES
MISSION
ABOUT US
The Manning Centre’s vision and mission are
informed by the following values:
• Individual liberty, dignity, and responsibility
• Free markets, freedom of choice, and limited government
• The wisdom of living within our means financially and ecologically
• Respect for Canada’s cultural, religious, and democratic traditions
• Recognition of the relevance and limitations of science
• Strong families and communities
• Care for those who cannot care for themselves
• Decentralized power and delivery of services
• Principled and prepared leadership
• An informed, deliberative citizenry
• Democratic citizen participation in the governance of our public affairs
The Manning Centre recognizes and accepts
various regional and philosophical dimensions
to Canadian conservatism. Rather than
championing just one of these dimensions to
the exclusion of the others, the Manning Centre
is committed to seeking common ground,
resolving contradictions, and finding ways for
conservatives of all ideological and regional
backgrounds to work together toward common
objectives.
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Watch our short film: “Build on the Tradition” which reminds us that small-c conservative principles are part of Canada’s heritage: www.manningcentre.ca/video
YOUR FEEDBACK
How do YOU see the state of the movement? How can we improve this report to make it more useful to all participants in Canada’s conservative movement? Give us your feedback at:
www.manningcentre.ca/feedback
VIDEO: BUILD ON THE TRADITION