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State of the Workforce 2010
Scott J. SheelyExecutive DirectorLancaster County
Workforce Investment BoardLancaster, PA
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Mega-Trends
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Total Employment (2001-2009)
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
230,000
240,000
250,000
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Lancaster
Berks
York
2001 2002 2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009
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Unemployment(October 2008-September 2010)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Lancaster
York
Berks
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Job Creation (2001-2009)
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2001
2002
2003 2004
2005
Lancaster
York
Berks
2006 2007 2008
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Job Creation by Industry*(3rd quarter 2009)
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Retail
Transportation Administration
Education
Health Care
HospitalityOther Service
Professional
*The number of new jobs that are created by either new area businesses or the expansion of employment by existing businesses
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Net Job Flows (2001-2009)
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
Lancaster
York
Berks
2001 2002 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
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Some Basic Observations Net job flows have been fairly predictable…they
rise in the first two quarters and fall in the last two quarters;
Fairly consistent with job creation trends; A great deal of seasonality in retail, hospitality,
and construction; Jobs tend to follow the performance of the
economy; Manufacturing, construction, health care,
hospitality and retail are still the main job creation engines in the County but transportation and business services are up and coming.
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Recession (2008-2009) and Recovery Biggest job losses in the first
quarters of 2009 and 2010; Slow losses but trending upward
through the second and third quarters with job creation still spiking in second quarters;
Lancaster has done better than Berks and York Counties.
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Lancaster in Comparison Next release February 2011 In 2008, the Lancaster GMP was $19.4
billion ranking it fifth among the metro economies in PA; Philadelphia $331.9 billion Pittsburgh $114.7 billion Allentown-Bethlehem $29.7 billion Harrisburg-Carlisle $27.9 billion Scranton Wilkes-Barre $19.1 billion
Only single county SMA on the list
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Growth in GMP From $14.5 billion in 2001 to…
$15.1 billion in 2002 $15.7 billion in 2003 $16.5 billion in 2004 $17.3 billion in 2005 $17.9 billion in 2006 $18.7 billion in 2007 $19.4 billion in 2008;
Average annual growth from 2001 to 2008 was 4.8%
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Change in GMP, 2001-2008
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Millions
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Some Basic Observations Overall vibrant economy that usually leads PA
in growth; Lags behind the national leaders but usually in
the top half nationally; Significant productivity gains in the area as
measured by growth in GMP and smaller growth in employment;
Investments in technology are paying off in productivity;
Tremendous drag on growth from low-skill, low-pay jobs
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Change in Wages, 2001-2009
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
$2,600
$2,800
$3,000
$3,200
$3,400
$3,600
$3,800
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
Berks
LancasterYork
20082007
200620052004200320022001
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Lancaster County Industry Clusters 2002-2010
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
Location Quotient
Per
centa
ge
Chan
ge
in E
mplo
ymen
t
Health Care
Builders and Contractors
WholesaleTrade
Logistics andTransportation
Education
Government
Business Services
HospitalityFinancialServices
Utilities
Retail
BiotechnologyChemicals, Rubber, and Plastics
Communications
Agriculture and Food Processing
Metals and Metal Fabricating
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Some Strengths Health care is our major job creation engine,
increasing employment by 34% and increasing location quotient by 13% from 2002-2010;
Transportation is a major surprise with a 31% increase in jobs and a 29% increase in location quotient in the period;
Manufacturing continues to hold its own with regard to competitiveness with some slippage over the period;
Business Services needs another look with 5% growth in the period
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Some Weaknesses Large and growing contingent workforce;
Temporary workforce grew 9% between 2002 and 2010;
Highest number of temporaries are laborers, clerks, packers, customer services representatives, and health care workers (RN, LPN, nurses’ aides);
Large and growing Hospitality sector with gradually declining Retail and Personal Services sectors;
Retail is the second largest sector but declined 3% between 2002 and 2010;
Hospitality grew by 7% in the period
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Manufacturing Lack of qualified workers are driving up
wages as businesses compete, especially in manufacturing;
In Lancaster, over 15% of jobs still in manufacturing;
Manufacturing was the largest contributor in output to the County economy…$3.9 billion or over 20% of total output in 2008
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Challenges Replacing the retiring Baby Boom workforce; Better preparation of the emerging workforce; Emphasize post-secondary technical training; Include non-traditional workers;
Welfare-to-Work; Ex-offenders;
Re-tooling Baby Boomers that still want to work;
Welcome immigrants; Move more people out of the contingent
workforce
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The Last Two Years
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The Last Two Years Unemployment rose to new highs in
Lancaster County from 3.6% in December 2007 to 7.3% in September 2010;
Lancaster County residents unemployed in September 2010: 19,600;
Most layoffs happened from December 2007 to December 2009;
At one point this summer, number of employed people grew at the same time the unemployment rate rose
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Industries Leading the Way to Recovery Making significant comeback
Manufacturing (all sectors) Logistics and Transportation Wholesale Distribution
Financial Services making a slight recovery Health Care has fallen off as a job
generator Nothing much happening in Construction
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Growing Occupations Truck Drivers Customer Service Reps, Sales
Reps, Market Researchers Managers and Supervisors, Public
Relations, Human Resources Engineers Health Professionals still high but
declining over last year
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Worst Case Scenario Persons exhausting unemployment
Actual from January 1 through September 30: 1,333
Projected for 2010: 3,613 Additional 3,500+ for first quarter of
2011 Veterans returning from active duty
Unemployment rate in excess of 10% All stimulus funding expended
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Going Forward
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PA CareerLink of Lancaster County 18 organizations that bring 65+ staff
people together at Liberty Place Currently seeing 1,300-1,500 people
weekly Increasing number of mature workers,
ex-offenders, and persons on welfare having more difficulty with placement
www.jobs4lancaster.com
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Ready2Work Work skills assessment Enrichment of foundational skills,
reinforcement of work skills Coaching on resume writing and interviewing Assessment using WorkKeys, a national
workforce readiness by ACT Career Readiness Credential (CRC) CRC required before any training investments
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Pre-Employment Training After completion of R2W, participants are
eligible for additional short-term, skill-based training suggested by employers
Exploring an expanded use of training under the Workforce Investment Act
Welding, building maintenance, office procedures, fork life driving, ServeSafe, construction, basic machine maintenance
Printing 101 most successful Manufacturing Skills Factory in January
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Reinvented Traditional Services Job Club grew dramatically, adding a
part-time option Individual Training Accounts over $1
million over the last three years Increasing involvement of ABE/ESL New partnerships with Spanish-
American Civic Association for bi-lingual skill training
Business Services Team has four full-time people doing liaison with the business community
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Last Program Year (2009-2010)
First Time Visits: 13,191 Graduates from Ready2Work:
1,156 ITAs: 395 Pre-Employment: 1,057 GEDs: 500 Placements: 845
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Working with Ex-Offenders Close working relationship with Lancaster
County Re-entry Management Organization, Lancaster County Prison, and Lancaster County Adult Probation and Parole Services
Many ex-offenders participate in the R2W program and in training
Persons eligible for work release also involved
Job Court connection has a PO placed at PA CareerLink
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Industry Partnerships and Centers of Excellence Designed to support the competitive advantages
of key industries in the regional economy Industry Partnerships are collaborations of
multiple companies to share incumbent worker training
Centers of Excellence add local research and development, technology transfer, entrepreneurial development, and pipeline from school to work to incumbent worker training…strong connection to economic development
Last year, involved over 450 companies and trained more than 4,000 incumbent workers
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Industry Partnerships and Centers of Excellence Center for Manufacturing Excellence (metals,
plastics, and food) (www.centerformanufacturingexcellence.com)
COE in Production Agriculture (www.KeepLancasterCountyFarming.com)
COE in Renewable Energy (www.LancasterCountyRenewableEnergy.com)
COE in Long-Term Care Practice (www.coeinlongtermcarepractice.com)
Industrial Maintenance Training Center (www.imtcpa.com)
Pre-Apprenticeship Training Program in Construction
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Industrial Maintenance Training Center of PA Trains incumbent workers in industrial
maintenance and mechatronics engineering technology
Anchored at Reading Area Community College with branch at Lancaster County Career and Technology Center
25+ schools replicating around PA Industry skill standards developed with
Packaging Machinery Manufacturers’ Institute Competency model endorsed by US
Department of Labor
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Contact
Scott SheelyExecutive DirectorLancaster County Workforce Investment
Board313 W. Liberty St.Suite 114Lancaster, PA [email protected]