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Statewide Resilience Master Planning: Flood Vulnerability and Adaptation
Adapt, Thrive, and Survive Climate Impacts
Frank Ricciardi, PE, LSP, MVP
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Weston & Sampson – Rocky Hill, CT• Full service, Multi-disciplinary office
• Staff includes Hydraulics/Hydrology, site civil, transportation, structural, environmental, and traffic engineers as well as licensed survey staff
• Designers of resilient infrastructure!
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Agenda• Statewide Resiliency Master Plan (SRMP) – Division of Capital
Asset Management and Maintenance (DCAMM), Massachusetts
– PHASE I: Benchmarking & Criticality Analysis and Climate Scenario Selection
– PHASE II: Risk and Vulnerability Analysis & Pilot Site Workshops
– PHASE III: Compilation and Distribution of Guidelines
• Outcomes of SRMP
• Implementing a similar process for CT
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Acknowledgements • Massachusetts DCAMM
• “Re-Team” – Resiliency team of DCAMM and MEMA staff
• Technical Assistance Group (TAG) – Representatives from MBTA Massport, Partners Healthcare, ULI, MAPC, UMass, MassDOT
• Our project teaming partner:
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Goal and Scope of Massachusetts SRMP Project
SRMP Project Goal Considerations• Review DCAMM’s portfolio vulnerability to climate change impacts and
develop design guidelines which encourage climate adaptation and resilience.
• DCAMM Mission Specific Goals • Agency Goals for Service Continuity• Goals for Resilient Design Guidelines
Summer‐Fall 2016 Fall‐Winter 2016/17 Spring‐Summer 2017
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DCAMM Portfolio Screen and CriticalityGOAL: Identify representative, critical Commonwealth’s assets for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (RVA) and Guideline Development
– Portfolio Review– Criticality Definition– DCAMM Survey– Criticality Worksheet – Prioritization
Final
PHASE 1 ‐ BENCHMARKING & CRITICALITY ANALYSIS
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DCAMM Portfolio – Over 8300 Assets
Executive Office For Administration and Finance
Executive Office of Health and Human Services
Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs
Executive Office of Public Safety and Security
Executive Office of Education
Judicial Branch
Office of the State House
DCAMM Secretariats
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Criticality
Scope
Geographic area and population affected by loss of facility
Time
Length of time a facility can be inoperable
without consequences
Severity
Public Health and Safety
Environmental Effect
Political Effect
Economic Effect
Interdependency
Psychological Effect
SURVEY AND CRITICALITY WORKSHEET
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Portfolio Screening
Pre‐screen assets to remove duplicate entries, fences, sheds and other minor items
Survey DCAMM directors/executives to further understand portfolio nature
Interview property managers to understand where climate impacts exist currently
Use existing mapping to identify facilities with short term risk
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Sea Level Rise/Storm
Surge
Coastal Flooding
Extreme Precipitation
Inlandflooding Landslides Ice
Storms
Extreme Temperatures
Drought Fire Wind
TIER 1
TIER 2
CLIMATE IMPACTS
PHASE 1 – CLIMATE SCENARIO SELECTION
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• Synthesis of available relevant technical analyses and reports• Coastal Geomorphology• Watershed Characteristics• Municipal Asset Locations and Information
• Compilation of data into a Geographic Information System (GIS)• Development of Study Scenarios
• Preliminary review of relevant regulations
PHASE 1 – CLIMATE SCENARIO SELECTION
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Develop Runoff Model
– Army Corps HEC-HMS software
– NRCS unit hydrograph method
• Drainage Area
• Curve Number
• Time of Concentration
– Include significant
dams/impoundments
Model high-intensity rainfall events
– NRCC/Cornell rainfall data, includes
climate change up to ~2010HEC‐HMS Impoundment Runoff
Precipitation and Inland FloodingRunoff Model Vulnerability
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Climate Scenarios: 2030 and 2070
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PHASE 2 – RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (RVA)
REPRESENTATIVE FACILITIESREPRESENTATIVE FACILITIES
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT
PrioritizationPrioritization
SELECT 3 PILOT SITESSELECT 3 PILOT SITES
Low High
High
Low Vu
lnerab
ility
Risk
May be priority planning areas
May be priority planning areas
Should be priority planning areas
Are unlikely to be priority planning
areas
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January 17, 2017 Climate Change Adaptation and Uncertainty
Local Sea Level Rise Example
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Risk Analysis– Probability of climate impact versus severity of consequence
– High Vulnerability, High Risk Sites = High Priority
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•Sea Level Rise & Storm Surge
•Inland Precipitation
•Heat
•Sea Level Rise & Storm Surge
•Inland Precipitation
•Heat
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
(determine sensitivity for each building
system/user group)
•CAMIS•Review of Existing Information
•Inspection•Interview
•CAMIS•Review of Existing Information
•Inspection•Interview
SITE/FACILITY CHARACTERIZATION(determine adaptive capacity within each building system/user
group)
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
Risk = Probability (determined
from likelihood of event and damage) *Consequence
(determined from cascading effect of failure of the building
system)
Mitigate Risk
Vulnerability
Risk Analysis – Site Specific
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Risk Analysis – Site Specific
FEMA 500 EL. 12.2
CATEGORY 2 EL. 13.8
CATEGORY 3 EL. 18.3
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Risk Analysis – Site Specific
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Risk Analysis – Site Specific
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PHASE 3 – DESIGN GUIDELINE DEVELOPMENT
Source: Massachusetts Stormwater Handbook
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Adaptation Planning
BEFORE
DURING
AFTER
• PREPARE FOR CHRONIC AND ACUTE CLIMATE IMPACTS
• RESIST CLIMATE EVENT (HEATWAVE, STORM)
• RECOVER FROM CLIMATE EVENT (FLOODING, DAMAGES)
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Policy (DCAMM Standards)
Programmatic
Deferred Maintenance Request
O&M
Master Plan
Retreat
Remove CC sensitivity
Relocate on site
Relocate off‐site
Elevate above PFE
Protect
Prevent CC impact
Flood Barriers
Backflow preventers/flood gates
Reinforce Windows/Wall
Accommodate
Allow CC impact, reduce damage
Increase drainage capacity
Green infrastructure
Wet floodproofing
Adaptation/Resiliency Strategies: Grouped by Type of Action
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Cost$$$
Effectiveness(Risk Reduction)
Feasibility(Implementation)
Timing(Short Term vs. Long Term)
Adaptability(Flexibility)
Co‐benefits(Mitigation)
Adaptation Criteria – C.E.F.T.A.C
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• Planning Horizon: Before & During• Strategy: Protect• Cost – $ ‐ $$. Customized to openings• Effectiveness – Max: depends on structural strength of building walls and connections
• Feasibility – Yes: easy to install, use, store and transport• Adaptability – Flexible: Adjust to water height• Timing ‐ Short term: <1 hour installation• Co‐benefits ‐ No.
Image courtesy of PS Flood Barriers
VULNERABLE FACILITY ELEMENT
LOCATIONCLIMATE STRESS
PRIORITY
Basement doorways to Outdoor Equipment Room, Mechanical Room, etc.
North side of site ExtremePrecipitation & Flooding
High
Adaptation Strategies – Example
Image courtesy of Global Industrial
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Final SRMP Document
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Connecticut SRMP• The process is established!• Use existing studies and expand on them • Mapping can be expanded to CT-
Statewide, COGs and Municipalities • Update current data• Select climate scenarios most applicable
to state goals• Prioritize assets based on criticality and
run RVA• Conduct workshops - identify example
adaptation strategies• Prepare final guidelines for adaptation
COG Communities
Uconn CIRCA Resources
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questions?westonandsampson.com
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thank youwestonandsampson.com