February © 2015
From Technologies to Market
Status of Power Electronics
Industry 2015
Sample
From Technologies to Market
2
• Report Objectives 4
• What is in this report 5
• Glossary 8
• Executive Summary 9
• Power Electronics Basic Concepts 29
What are Power Electronics used for? 32
• PE Market 2010 - 2020 50
Wafer Market 58
Device Market 64
Inverter Market 71
• PE Technology Overview 75
Raw Materials 77
IGBTs Technology 86
SJ MOSFETs Technology 98
SiC FETs Technology 106
GaN HEMTs Technology 117
Power Packaging 130
• PE Applications Overview 138
PV Inverters 140
Wind Turbines 147
T&D 154
EV/HEV 163
Rail Traction 172
UPS 180
Industrial Motor Drives 187
• Key Players & PE Supply Chain 196
• PE Future Challenges 218
• Annex 223
• Yole Presentation 226
TABLE OF CONTENTS
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
3
COMPANIES CITED IN THE REPORT
ABB, Alstom, Amphenol, Amsc, AnsaldoBreda, BAIC, Baldor, BMW, Bolloré, Bombardier, Bosch, BYD, CAF, Chilicon Power, Continental, Converteam, CREE, CSR, Curamik, Daimler Chrysler, Danfoss, Delphi, Delta Energy Systems, Denso, DTW
elektronika, Dynex, Eaco, Eagtop, Eaton, Emerson Liebert, Enecsys, Enercon, Enphase Energy, Envision, Fairchild, Ford, Fuji Electric, EPC, EpiWorld, Gamesa, GaN Systems, General Electric, GeneSiC, Goldwind, Hitachi, Holy Stone Polytech, Honda, HYUNDAI
heavy industries, Icemos, Idealec, iEnergy, Infineon, Ingeteam, International Rectifier, Involar, Iveco, IXYS, KACO new energy, Kawasaki, LAAS-CNRS, Leroy Somer, LS Power Semitech, MasterVolt, MCB, Mersen, Methode, MicroGaN, Microsemi, Mingyang,
Mitsubishi Electric, Multi Contact, New Flyer, Nissan, Nordex, NXP, Omron, ON Semiconductor, Panasonic, Parker, Powdec, Powerex, Powersem, Poseico, Positronic, PSA, Raytheon, Renault, Renesas, RFMD, Rockwell Automation, Rogers Corporation,
Rohm, Schneider Electric, Samsung heavy industries, SanKen, SanRex, SBE, Semikron, Semisouth, SEPSA, Shindengen, SICC, Siemens, SMA Solar Technology, SMBE, Sinovel, SolarMax, STMicroelectronics, Sungrow, Tabuchi, TDK, TE connectivity, Tesla Motors, TMEIC, Toshiba, ToyoDenki, Toyota, Transphorm, TYSTC, United Power Technology, Vacon, Vestas, Vincotech, VisIC
Technologies, Vishay, Volvo, WDI, Yaskawa, Yutong…
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
4
OVERALL POWER ELECTRONICS MARKET
2014 – 2020 value chain analysis: system, device, wafer
The power electronics market perspectives are very optimistic with a CAGR superior than 6% for the period 2014-2020
Electronics Systems
$xxxx B
Power Inverters$xxxx B
Semiconductor power devices (discrete and
modules)
$11.5 B
Power wafers$xxxx B
Electronics Systems
$xxxx B
Power Inverters$xxxx B
Semiconductor power devices (discrete and
modules)
$17.2 B
Power wafers$xxxxB
2014 2020
CAGR: +xx%
CAGR: +6.9%
CAGR: +2%
CAGR: +6.1%
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
5
WAFER MARKET FORECAST 2010-2020
Market size split by diameter
The 6” (150mm) wafers are the most sold ones, but 200mm wafers will considerably increase its market share
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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INVERTER MARKETS AND DRIVERS
The overall inverter market in 2014 exceeded the $xx B
Andothers…
Drivers for inverter innovation
Drivers for application growth
Size reduction
Weight reduction
Efficiency improvement
Cost reduction
• Increase of CO2 emission taxes
• Demand and regulations for clean energy generation
• Need for mass transportation
• Need for efficient transportation
• Regulation on energy efficiency
• Data center and data storage market increase
• Utility grid stress increasing due to the use of clean energy
Depending on applications
Wind turbines$2.7 B -2.1%
PV inverter$xx B +2.2%
Motor drives
$xxx B +8%
Rail traction$3.3 B +5.2%
UPS$10 B +0.9%
EV/HEV$xxxx B +15%
Inverter markets*
* In 2014
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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FOUR MAIN DEVICES FOR POWER ELECTRONICS
We do a focus on the four main recent technologies in this report
SiC FETs
Production status in 2014: growing stage of productionMarket size in 2014: $xxxxMMain players involved: CREE, Infineon, Powerex, Rohm, Microsemi, GeneSic, STMicroelectronicsMain applications: xxxx (for diodes), xxxx , xxxx (not yet), xxxx (not yet), xxxxxx (for switches)Power range: 10 kW to MW rangeVoltage range: 1.2 kV to xxxkV (up to xxx kV so far)
SJ MOSFETs
Production status in 2014: mass productionMarket size in 2014: ~$xxxxMMain players involved: Infineon, STMicroelectronics, Toshiba, Fairchild, VishayMain applications: Laptop adapters, xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, xxxx,…Power range: up to 20 kWVoltage range: up to xxxxV
GaN HFETs
Production status in 2014: early stage of productionMarket size in 2014: ~$xxxxMMain players involved: IR, EPC, GaN Systems, Transphorm, Freescale, Infineon, Fuji Electric, Powdec, SanKen, Renesas, etc.Main applications: xxx xxxx (not yet), xxxx(not yet), xxxx, xxx.Power range: up to 100 kWVoltage range: up to xxxx V
SILICONCOMPOUND
SEMICONDUCTORS
IGBT
Production status in 2014: mass productionMarket size in 2014: $xxxxMMain players involved: Infineon, Fairchild, STMicroelectronics, Toshiba, Mitsubishi, Fuji ElectricMain applications: PV inverters, rail traction, EV/HEV, UPS, motor drives, wind turbines, medical,…Power range: From 1 kW to few hundreds kWVoltage range: from 300 V to xxxx kV
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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SEMICONDUCTOR EVOLUTIONS
Power device technology positioning
WBG devices are primarily positioned in high-end applications
1200V or more
600V or less
Pro
du
ct r
ange
Voltage
IGBTThyristor
IGCT…
SiC
MOSFET
Triacs
Bipolar…
3.3kV and more200V
GaN GaN Yole Développement - December 2014
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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IMPLEMENTATION OF SiC MATERIALS IN POWER ELECTRONICS
• SiC diodes today are already
in production, mainly coupled
with IGBT technology.
• Penetration of SiC in Wind
turbines will happen xxxx.
For all other segments, Yole
Développement roadmaps
have been confirmed. Use of
SiC in industrial motor drives
is still unclear.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Industrial motor drives
UPS
Rail traction
Wind turbines
EV/HEV
PV inverters
Confirmed
Confirmed
Confirmed
Today
Confirmed
Diode Switch
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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IMPLEMENTATION OF GaN MATERIALS IN POWER ELECTRONICS
• Characteristics of GaN-based
inverters will be:
• They will primarily target medium
voltage applications (in the 200 –
600V range)
• GaN targeted applications will
be very different from SiC, at
first. We will observe a competition
in xxxx. For the EV/HEV, xxxxxxx.
• GaN devices are excluded from
high-voltage applications such as
wind turbines and rail traction.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Industrial motor drives
UPS
Rail traction
Wind turbine
EV/HEV
PV inverters
PFC/Power supplies
Small DC/DC converters Wireless chargers
Today
Confirmed
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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SJ MOSFET PLAYERS
Who does what?
Several new players have arrived, and they will bring more competition in this market
Super junction MOSFET
Multiple epitaxy + implantation Deep trench
ProductionR&D
Buy & sell
Production R&D
Deep trench + epi filling
Deep trench + implantation
R&D
Floating island
Production
R&D
2013
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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COMPETITIVE PACKAGING TECHNOLOGY
Improvement aspects in packaging, with examples…
Many innovations are taking place in power module packaging
Die interconnection
DBC
+
baseplate
Die attach
Infineon .XT Lexus/Toyota modules:LS 600h
Prius 2010
Semikron Ag sintering
Semikron Skin
• GE power overlay• Delphi Viper• aPSI3D module
Improvements in packaging can be made in 3 different aspects:
• Die interconnection, which is searching for innovative wire bonding or no-wires connection for better lifetime and reliability
• Die attach, which uses new materials for better lifetime
• DBC+baseplate, which uses new materials and suppress layers for improved cooling and smaller size
All applicable to Si and SiC
Includes coolingDanfoss
Shower power
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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INVERTER MARKET FORECAST
2010-2020
Description and market trends of each application are presented on this report
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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PV TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Penetration strategy status
New players are trying to find their position in the PV market
1,000kW500kW200kW100kW10kW5kW250 W 1kW 50kW
Not yet established
Well-established
Inverter size
Establishment in the PV inverter business
≈
In 2014, PV inverter manufacturers focused mainly on four target areas:1. Microinverters (~250W)2. Small-size (residential roofs) (3-10kW)3. Medium-size inverters (20-50 kW)4. Large inverters (500kW+)
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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WIND TURBINES MAIN PLAYERS LOCATION AND STRATEGY
Goldwind = No1. in China in 2013
GE Wind = No1. in the US in 2013
Chinese players are rapidly growing within China and looking for foreign markets. Some Chinese players have chosen the strategy of JV
with key EU technology players in order to speed-up their development.
All players are looking for new market opportunities: some by developing large turbines in 6MW+ size for offshore applications other via focusing on
promising new markets especially in South America.
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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ARCHITECTURES OF SMART POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS
HVDC & FACTS
HVDC and FACTS fulfil the needs for more power management and long distance transmission
Smart Power
Distribution
HVDC
HVDC standard
VSC /
HVDC light
FACTS
SVC
TCSC
STATCOM
SVC light
Thyristors IGBT Thyristors IGBT
Power
systems
technologies
Power
systems
sub category
Main silicon
device in use:
HVDC : High Voltage Direct Current
FACTS : Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System
VSC : Voltage Source Converters (“IGBT Light” is a brand of ABB)
SVC : Static VAR Compensator (VAR: Reactive Power)
STATCOM (SVC light) : Static Synchronous Compensator
DC AC
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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EV/HEV SUPPLY CHAIN EVOLUTION
Integration trends
Tier 1 et chip makers are willing to acquire power module manufacturing. Pure power module makers have to develop their competences to stay in the game.
Power module Inverter/converter VehiclesDiscrete component
Car manufacturers
Tier 1
Chip makers
Module makers
Tough concurrence zone Car manufacturers see
electric motors as a know-how to master, and
are capturing competencies from tier
ones the goal is to
manufacture the overall powertrain.
Some car makers are also working on batteries to
complete this value chain integration.
The description of the supply chain for each application can be found on the report
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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RAIL TRACTION SUPPLY CHAIN
DYNEX’s acquisition by CSR is an example of Asiatic vertical integration.
Dies IGBT modules Power Inverter Modules Train makers
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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UPS POWER ELECTRONICS
Component adoption for UPS inverters
• At the component level, we have observed two main trends:
• Adoption of power modules in opposition to power discrete devices, for the low power segment:
• xxxxx
• IGBT will be the most demanded device for UPS business within the next five years:
• xxxxxx
• xxxxxx
IGBTs are and will be the most used devices in UPS
Power range Number of devices Topology Device voltage
Low power UPS xxxx• H-bridge topology
• Single phasexxxx
Medium power UPS xxxx
• IGBT rectifier
• 3 phase
• Cascaded H-bridge or NPC topologiesxxxx
High power UPS xxxx
• IGBT rectifier
• 3 phase
• Multi-level topologies
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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POWER ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN TRENDS
Many other M&A examples are analysed on the report
Europe and USA Asia
Vertical integration: Acquisition of competencies internally to build an overall system, for different motivations.• To grasp the entire value chain margin• To reach local markets also for some companies
(example with CSR which bought Dynex in 2008 both to grasp EU market and outsourced Dynex’smanufacturing)
Diversification (also called horizontal integration):
Outsourced manufacturing:Typically in Asia for low value levels of manufacturing
Proposition of advanced R&D services- IMEC- APEI- Fraunhofer- PRIMES- GE Global Research
Product consolidationCost reduction
Quality and reliability offersDomestic market protection and worldwide expansion
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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VERTICAL & HORIZONTAL INTEGRATION
A technological need
• The main purpose of power electronics continue to be integration.
• Therefore, establishing interactions and synergy dynamics among different players is necessary so that knowledge canbe shared and the overall system improved.Acquisitions and partnerships are the key:
Vertical integration helps reducing costs. Diversification takes profit of different synergies to get a more compact system.
Capacitor
Laminated busbar
Cooling system
INVERTERPossible by mastering both
technologies (examples: SBE and Methode Electronics, Eagtop…)
Can be extended toward IGBT stack/inverter assembly
with cooling systems, and other components (Power modules, IGBT drivers…)
IGBT driver
Power module
IGBT stack/inverter assembly
Capacitor+busbar assembly:
Resistor
Power stack backbone
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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UP-FRONT INTEGRATION
From chips to inverters
Many Japanese chip manufacturers have accessed higher added value markets
• Drivers for this integration are:
• Technology development: access to new skills
• Partnering, developing sales network
• Access to higher added value markets
• Main risks are:
– Customers becoming competitors
– Access new technologies, especially at the inverter
level
• Most concerned are Japanese players
Inverter makersSystem
integrators
Power module makers
Chip makers
Power discrete makers
Passive makers
Busbar and connector makers
Supplies to…
Expansion trend
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry
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FOCUS ON CHINA
Vertical integration by Chinese companies: from toward to vertical backward
Huge Chinese companies are conquering their supply chain and their respective markets
SystemInverterPower modulePower Chip
Rail
EV/HEV
PV inverter
Wind turbines
Strong R&D effort
©2015 | www.yole.fr | Status of Power Electronics Industry