Stock Market Indicators:Fundamental, Sentiment,
& TechnicalYardeni Research, Inc.
September 25, 2017
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
September 25, 2017 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-2Global Growth Barometer 3Economic Surprise Index 4Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 6Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 7Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 8AAII Sentiment 9Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 10S&P 500 Put Call Ratio 11Volatility 12Volume 13Dow Theory 14S&P 500 Moving Averages 15-16S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 17S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 18S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50019
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1820
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
200
400
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800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
26009/25
12/31
YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX
S&P 500 Index
YRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 1.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201840
50
60
70
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110
120
130
140
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160
170
180
190
200
210
220
20
30
40
50
60
70
9/16
9/16
YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
Boom-Bust Barometer*
Consumer Comfort Index
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
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Figure 2.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
9/25
9/25S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES
S&P 500 Index
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 3.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
9/16
9/25S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,inverted scale)
S&P 500 Index
Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 4.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
1850
2050
2250
2450
2650
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
1850
2050
2250
2450
2650
9/25
9/25YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500
YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1006.9)
S&P 500 Index (2496.7)
* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 5.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
9/22
9/25
US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
Brent Crude Oil Price*(dollars per barrel)
S&P 500 Index
Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.* Nearby futures price.
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Figure 6.
Global Growth Barometer
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
9/25
S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
S&P 500 minus its200 day-moving average
Economic Surprise Indexyardeni.com
Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.
Figure 7.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
9
11
13
15
17
19
9/21
9/25
S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
Economic Surprise Index
S&P 500 Forward P/E*
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Source: Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Figure 8.
Economic Surprise Index
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 9.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ratio Sep 5 2.59 Sep 12 2.33 Sep 19 2.66
9/19
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
RatioBull/Bear Ratio
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Bulls Bears Sep 5 49.5 19.1 Sep 12 47.1 20.2 Sep 19 50.5 19.0
9/19
PercentageBullsBears
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Correction Sep 5 31.4 Sep 12 32.7 Sep 19 30.5
9/19
PercentageCorrection Camp
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Source: Investors Intelligence.
Investors Intelligence Sentiment
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
180020002200240026002800
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
180020002200240026002800
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
9/25
yarden
i.com
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 10.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201600
5600
9600
13600
17600
21600
25600
1600
5600
9600
13600
17600
21600
25600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
9/25
yarden
i.com
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 11.
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
180020002200240026002800
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
180020002200240026002800
S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
9/25
yarden
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* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 12.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201600
5600
9600
13600
17600
21600
25600
1600
5600
9600
13600
17600
21600
25600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
9/25
yarden
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* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 13.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
20
40
-40
-20
0
20
40
S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*
9/25
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yarden
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Figure 14.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
20
40
-40
-20
0
20
40
S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*
9/25
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yarden
i.com
Figure 15.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
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Figure 16.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
9/20
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS
AAII Bull Ratio*
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
9/20
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Latest Readings Bulls Bears Sep 13 41.3 22.0 Sep 20 40.1 27.2
9/20
Bulls
Bears
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
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AAII Sentiment
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820
40
60
80
100
120
140
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
9/19
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 17.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820
30
40
50
60
70
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
9/19
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer Comfort Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.
Figure 18.
Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence
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96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
9/22
S&P 500 PUT/CALL(weekly data)
Average = 1.616(1996-2010)
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
9/22
S&P 500 PUT/CALL(4-week ma)
Average = 1.624(1996-2010)
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 20.
S&P 500 Put Call Ratio
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
9/25
VIX: S&P 500
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 21.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
9/25
VIX: NASDAQ 100
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 22.
Volatility
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182
4
6
8
10
12
2
4
6
8
10
12
9/22
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE WEEKLY VOLUME(billion shares, 4-week moving average)
52-week moving average
Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.
yarden
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Figure 23.
Volume
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
9/25DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES(ratio scale)
Industrials (DJIA)
Transportation (DJTA)
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
yardeni.com
Figure 24.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
800
1050
1300
1550
1800
2050
2300
2550
2800
3050
3300
3550
9/25S&P 500 STOCK INDEXES(ratio scale)
Industrials Composite*
Transportation Composite
* S&P 500 excluding Financials, Transports, and Utilities.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 25.
Dow Theory
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
28003000
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
28003000
9/25-56.8% (510)
-16.0% (69)
-19.4% (154)
-9.8% (27)
-9.9% (59)
-7.7% (61)
-7.4% (27)
-12.4% (94)
* Dips are declines of less than 10%. Corrections are declines of 10% to 20%. Bear markets are declines of 20% or more. Number of days in parentheses.
S&P 500 INDEX: 2008-2017*(log scale)
S&P 500 (2496.66)
200-day moving average (2384.08)
50-day moving average (2469.98)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
9/25
S&P 500 INDEX(as a percent of 200-day moving average)
% from 200-day moving average (4.6)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 27.
S&P 500 Moving Averages
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
26009/25S&P 500 INDEX*
Latest price: 2496.6650-dma: 2470.33200-dma: 2387.62
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s.
(+) Latest price is 1.1% above the 50-dma.(+) Latest price is 4.4% above the 200-dma.
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Figure 28.
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
9/22
S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICALSTHE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS(50-dma relative to 200-dma, percent, weekly)
(3.3)
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 29.
S&P 500 Moving Averages
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Figure 30.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18600
1100
1600
2100
26003100
9/25S&P 500*(price indexes)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18125
250
375
500625750
9/25INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18100
300
500
700900
9/25CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18175
375
575
7759751175
9/25INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18175
275
375
475
575675
9/25CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18100
175
250
325
4009/25MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18300
450
600
750
900
9/25
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1840
90
140
190240290
9/25REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1875
200
325
450575700
9/25
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1875
115
155
195
235
9/25
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18225
400
575
750
9251100
9/25HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
200-day moving average* S&P 500 sector price indexes on ratio scales.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18100
150
200
250
300350
9/25UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma
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Figure 31.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
9/25
S&P 500(price index as percentage of 200-dma)
% from 200-dma (4.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
9/25
INDUSTRIALS
(6.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
9/25
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(1.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
9/25
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(7.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30
-15
0
15
30
9/25
CONSUMER STAPLES
(-0.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
9/25
MATERIALS
(6.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
9/25
ENERGY
(0.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
9/25
REAL ESTATE
(1.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
9/25
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
(5.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40
-20
0
20
40
9/25
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(0.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30
-15
0
15
30
9/25
HEALTH CARE
(7.3)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40
-20
0
20
40
9/25
UTILITIES
(3.8) yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma
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Figure 32.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
9/25
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.18
.20
.22
.24
.26
9/25
INDUSTRIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
9/25
CONSUMER STAPLES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
9/25
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
9/25
ENERGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.10
.15
.20
.25
9/25
MATERIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.1
.2
.3
.4
9/25
FINANCIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.06
.08
.10
.12
.14
.16
9/25
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
9/25
HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.08
.10
.12
.14
.16
.18
.20
9/25
UTILITIES
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S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 500
Page 19 / September 25, 2017 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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