AKD Research [email protected]
+92-21-111-253-111
Weekly Review
Politics once again took the center stage deteriorating market sentiment as the ousted PM
Nawaz Sharif returned from London to appear before Accountability Court. Also, NAB
indicted the Finance Minister Ishaq Dar in assets reference case further fueling negative
sentiments. In this backdrop, KSE-100 index lost 341pts (-0.8%WoW) to end the week at
42409pts. Avg. daily trading activity during the week also came down 9.03%WoW to
146.3mn shares, where volume leaders were: 1) KEL (97.05mn shares), 2) BOP (45.57mn
shares), 3) WTL (32.39mn shares), 4) TRG (31.10mn Shares) and 5) KOSM (27.5mn shares).
Key news flows impacting the market during the week included: 1) ECC approving the
PkR5bn sugar export subsidy on 500K tons export quota allotted earlier, 2) ADB maintaining
its growth forecast for Pakistan’s economy at 5.5%YoY while highlighting external sector and
rising debt risks, 3) Supreme Court dismissing the NBP’s appeal against Lahore High Court’s
(LHC) judgment on employees’ pension case, 4) ADB approving the US$800mn multi-
tranche financing facility for Pakistan to rehabilitate and upgrade the road networks and 5)
GoP total external assistance during 2MFY18 amounting to US$709mn. Performance wise,
top gainers during the week included: 1) FATIMA (+13.88%WoW), 2) KEL (+12.28%WoW), 3)
POL (+6.55%WoW), 4) FFC (+5.91%WoW) and 5) PTC (+4.17%WoW), while major losers
were: 1) NBP (-15.32%WoW), 2) GWLC (-7.62%WoW), 3) FCCL (-5.19%WoW), 4) MLCF (-
4.69%WoW) and 5) LUCK (-4.59%WoW). Foreign interest remained intact during the week
with net inflows of US$0.52mn against net inflow of US$0.377mn in the last week.
StockSmart
AKD Equity Research / Pakistan
Pakistan Weekly Update
Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securit ies does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Important disclosures
Copyright©2017 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.
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Key developments over NAB’s references against former PM Nawaz Sharif and his children in the Accountability Court may continue to hold sentiment in the bearish territory. However, strong rebound in oil (Arab Light/Brent +12.4%/9% MTD) and int’l urea prices (up 60% since low of US$163/ton in Jun'17) can keep the respective sectors in limelight.
29 September 2017
Outlook
Index & Volume Chart
Source: KSE & AKD Research
Universe Gainers & Losers
42,744
42,666
42,290 42,363
42,409
42,000
42,100
42,200
42,300
42,400
42,500
42,600
42,700
42,800
-
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
25-Sep 26-Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 29-Sep
(Index)(Shrs'000)
Ready Volume (LHS) KSE100 Index (RHS)
Indices KSE-100 KSE-30
This w eek 42,409 21,606
Last w eek 42,750 21,881
Change -0.80% -1.26%
Indices KMI-30 Allshare
This w eek 71,443 30,396
Last w eek 72,121 30,462
Change -0.94% -0.22%
Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bn
This w eek 8,857 84.03
Last w eek 8,884 84.28
Change -0.30% -0.29%
Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)
This w eek 146.37
Last w eek 160.90
Change -9.03%
Top-5 Volume Leaders
Symbol Volume (mn)
KEL : 97.05
BOP : 45.57
WTL : 32.39
TRG : 31.10
KOSM : 27.50
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
FATI
MA
KEL
PO
L
FFC
PTC
LUC
K
MLC
F
FCCL
GW
LC
NB
P
33,000
35,000
37,000
39,000
41,000
43,000
45,000
47,000
49,000
51,000
53,000
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Au
g-17
Au
g-17
Sep
-17
(Index)(share mn)
Volume (LHS) KSE-100 Index
AKD Securities Limited
29 September 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Week’s Daily Reports
2
Sep 28, 2017
Pakistan E&Ps: Triggers in the making, (AKD Daily, Sep 29, 2017)
Arab Lite has recently hit US$55/bbl mark bringing the index heavy Oil and Gas exploration sector back into limelight (outperformed KSE-100 index by 3.8%CYTD). Fueled by geo-political tensions and hopes of a market rebalance, intl. oil prices are firming up and the domestic E&P sector remains a major beneficiary where companies in our universe derive ~43% of the FY18E revenue through oil. Moreover, taking advantage of low cost Oil Field Services around the globe post FY14, the companies embarked on multiple exploration programs including geological surveys, seismic data acquisition (total 2D/3D seismic data acquisition reached its peak in FY16 with 7632kms/6585 sq. kms) and drilling of wells in lesser explored areas of Balochistan and KPK. A sneak peek at the ongoing E&P activities reveals that post- security clearance, seismic activities are underway in blocks of Balochistan and KPK by OGDC and PPL. Workovers in Adhi, Sui, Kandhkot and various other fields, appraisal and tie-in of newer discoveries in TAL block (Tolanj West, Makori Deep etc), and plans to spud 100 wells in FY18 shall act as major volumetric triggers in times to come. In this backdrop, PPL remains our top-pick with a TP of PkR205/sh, providing a potential upside of 17.2% from last close.
Power: The boat has sailed on low generation costs, (AKD Daily, Sep 28, 2017)
CPPA generation numbers for 2MFY18 clocked-in at 47.8TwH, 11.8% higher over 2MFY17. Hydel and FO based generation maintained the highest share of the power mix with 8.0/6.3TwH contributed. Increased generation was largely led by RLNG/coal based production adding 1,070/509MW in net dependable capacity, as new plants were tied-in to the grid in the recent months. Unit cost of electricity moved up by 12.3%YoY to PkR4.98/KwH, in tandem with global oil price movements (reflected in FO/RLNG cost of generation climbing). Having said this, we highlight the worsening circular debt position which has crossed PkR400bn mark as per the latest news flows with NEPRA rejecting to incorporate PkR235bn in to the consumer tariff. KAPCO looks attractive based on a high probability of an extension in PPA for 15 years and its recent plan to acquire 17.4% stake in HUBC while maintaining hefty payouts (FY18E/19F D/Y of 12. 7%/12.7%).
Pakistan Fertilizers: much needed boost, (AKD Daily, Sep 27, 2017)
As per Aug'17 NFDC data, fertilizer offtake continues to recover on the back of persistent support of subsidy package and inspiring kharif season. According to latest figures, total fertilizer sales in Aug'17 stood at 1.15mn tons against 842k tons sold in Aug'16 (up 37%YoY/55%MoM). Similarly, urea sales have also jumped by 65%YoY/180%MoM to 948k tons during the month under review. Furthermore, imported urea sales also depicted improvement (65k tons sold in Aug'17 vs. 46k tons in Jul'17) due to availability at significant discount to local urea prices (15% discount). DAP sales on the other hand registered a decline of 38%YoY/71%YoY to 83k tons in Aug'17. On a cumulative basis, total fertilizer sales posted encouraging growth of 26%YoY to 6.04mn tons during 8MCY17 where urea offtake posted a significant growth of 26%YoY to stand at 3.99mn tons. Moreover, the recent recovery in int'l urea prices (up 60% since low of US$163/ton in Jun'17) alongwith normalization of inventory level (urea inventory standing at 653k tons vs. 1.15mn tons in Aug’16) makes room available for local manufacturers to reduce the prevailing discount offerings while further reducing inventory levels by exporting excess urea at better prices.
Autos: Weak JpY to fatten margins, (AKD Daily, Sep 26, 2017)
Having weakened 1.94% during the month of September'17 and averaging 110.9JpY/US$ for 3QCY17, a weak Yen continues to suppress costs for automotive OEMs. Despite this, possible shelving of Punjab Orange cab scheme and lackluster earnings due to tepid margins on new offerings have cemented Auto industry weakness, with PSMC/INDU losing -42/-2%FYTD. Even though current JpY averages match levels we have assumed in our forecasts (110.94JpY/US$ average for FY18E), we highlight heightened geopolitical tensions in the Korean peninsula and possible elections in Japan as furthering weakness in the Yen. News reports reveal relatively subdued picture on new entrants, with current OEMs expected to lay out plans for fending off market share accordingly. Barring any substantial initiatives Source: KSE & AKD Research
Sep 27, 2017
42,000
42,100
42,200
42,300
42,400
42,500
42,600
42,700
9:3
0
9:5
5
10:2
0
10:4
4
11:0
9
11:3
4
11:5
9
12:2
4
12:4
9
13:1
3
13:3
8
14:0
3
14:2
8
14:5
3
15:1
8
Sep 29, 2017
42,050
42,100
42,150
42,200
42,250
42,300
42,350
42,400
42,450
42,500
9:3
0
9:5
4
10:1
7
10:4
1
11:0
5
11:2
8
11:5
2
12:1
5
12:3
9
13:0
3
13:2
6
13:5
0
14:1
3
14:3
7
15:0
1
15:2
5
Sep 26, 2017
42,600
42,655
42,710
42,765
42,820
42,875
42,930
42,985
9:3
0
10:0
2
10:3
5
11:0
7
11:3
9
12:1
1
12:4
3
13:1
5
13:4
7
14:1
9
14:5
1
15:2
4
42,270
42,314
42,358
42,402
42,446
42,490
42,534
42,578
9:1
5
9:4
4
10:1
2
10:4
0
11:0
9
11:3
7
12:0
6
12:3
4
13:0
2
13:3
0
13:5
8
14:2
6
14:5
4
15:2
3
15:5
1
16:2
0
Sep 25, 2017
42,600
42,677
42,754
42,831
42,908
42,985
43,062
43,139
9:3
0
10:0
2
10:3
5
11:0
7
11:3
9
12:1
1
12:4
3
13:1
5
13:4
7
14:1
9
14:5
1
15:2
4
AKD Securities Limited
29 September 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Week’s Daily Reports
3
mitigating increased competition, and emphasizing relative value in the space we maintain our BUY calls on INDU and PSMC.
EFOODS: Fundamental issues remain deeply rooted, (AKD Daily, Sep 25, 2017)
EFOODS has lost 52%CYTD struggling on account of continuous slowdown in earnings - 1HCY17 profits have been the lowest ever. Topline growth remains the biggest concern (down 22.5%YoY) in the backdrop of intensifying competition, with EFOODS losing out presence in all major dairy categories. Moreover, declining GM has added on to the pressure, straining profitability further. With international milk prices on an uptrend (FAO dairy index +44.3%YoY in 8MCY17) and effective marketing strategy deployment by new entrants (particularly in the tea whitener segment where EFOODS commands a leadership position), we see a challenging operating environment for EFOODS. Citing the aforementioned factors, we revise down our CY17F/CY18F earnings estimates by 55%/53% while consequently bringing down our TP to PkR84.20/sh. Going forward, fundamental weakness is likely to persist with pressure on volumes remaining intact. Product initiations under the new management remains the only bright spot, however nothing in this regard has been put forward yet. At current price level, the stock trades at unjustifiably high multiples (forward PE/PS at 80.3x/1.74x) vindicating our Reduce stance.
*3-Days
AKD Securities Limited
29 September 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
4
Commodities
International Major Currencies
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Major World Indices’ Performance
Source: Bloomberg
TRJ-CRB Index
Source: Bloomberg
PkR/US$ Trend
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Valuations (2017)
Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe
165
168
171
174
177
180
183
186
189
192
195
198
Sep-1
6
Oct-16
Nov-
16
Dec-
16
Jan-1
7
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-
17
Jun-1
7
Jul-17
Aug-1
7
104.0
104.5
105.0
105.5
106.0
106.5
107.0
Sep-1
6
Oct-16
Nov-
16
Dec-
16
Jan-1
7
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-
17
Jun-1
7
Jul-17
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
SPOT Units 29-Sep-17 22-Sep-17 WoW CYTD
TRJ-CRB Points 182.9904 183.5685 -0.31% -4.95%
Nymex (WTI) US$/bbl. 51.44 50.66 1.54% -4.24%
ICE Brent US$/bbl. 57 56.64 0.64% 2.87%
N. Gas Henry Hub US$/Mmbtu 2.9222 2.9448 -0.77% -20.64%
Cotton USd/Pound 78.8 78.55 0.32% -0.76%
Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1286.61 1297.4 -0.83% 11.66%
Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 16.8085 16.995 -1.10% 5.59%
Copper US$/MT 6473.5 6415.75 0.90% 17.21%
Platinum US$/Oz 919 933 -1.50% 1.72%
Coal US$/MT 90.6 89.5 1.23% 8.18%
SPOT 29-Sep-17 22-Sep-17 Chg +/- WoW CYTD
Dollar Index 93.076 92.171 0.905 0.98% -9.35%
USD/PkR 105.415 105.420 -0.005 0.00% 0.56%
USD/JPY 112.510 111.990 0.520 0.46% -3.46%
EUR/USD 1.181 1.195 -0.014 -1.20% 12.55%
GBP/USD 1.339 1.350 -0.012 -0.87% 9.18%
AUD/USD 0.783 0.796 -0.013 -1.63% 8.49%
NZD/USD 0.722 0.733 -0.011 -1.51% 3.65%
CHF/USD 0.971 0.969 0.001 0.12% -5.13%
CAD/USD 1.244 1.234 0.010 0.81% -7.87%
USD/KRW 1,145 1,137 8.700 0.77% -5.17%
CNY/USD 6.652 6.590 0.062 0.94% -4.38%
Country Bloomberg Code 29-Sep-17 22-Sep-17 WoW CYTD
Pakistan KSE100 Index 42,409 42,750 -0.80% -11.3%
Srilanka CSEALL Index 6,438 6,427 0.17% 3.4%
Thailand SET Index 1,673 1,659 0.85% 8.4%
Indonesia JCI Index 5,901 5,912 -0.18% 11.4%
Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,756 1,771 -0.87% 6.9%
Philippines PCOMP Index 8,171 8,281 -1.33% 19.5%
Vietnam VNINDEX Index 804 807 -0.34% 21.0%
Hong Kong HSI Index 27,554 27,881 -1.17% 25.2%
Singapore FSSTI Index 3,220 3,220 -0.01% 11.8%
Brazil IBX Index 30,487 31,296 -2.58% 23.0%
Russia RTSSTD Index 13,382 13,223 1.21% -9.2%
India SENSEX Index 31,284 31,922 -2.00% 17.5%
S&P SPX Index 2,510 2,502 0.31% 12.1%
DJIA INDU Index 22,381 22,350 0.14% 13.3%
UK UKX Index 7,369 7,311 0.80% 3.2%
Germany DAX Index 12,751 12,592 1.26% 11.1%
Qatar DSM Index 8,312 8,361 -0.58% -20.4%
Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 4,397 4,455 -1.29% -3.3%
Dubai DFMGI Index 3,564 3,633 -1.89% 0.9%
Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 6,680 6,849 -2.47% 16.2%
Oman MSM30 Index 5,137 5,100 0.72% -11.2%
Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 7,283 7,326 -0.59% 1.0%
MSCI EM MXEF Index 1,072 1,102 -2.71% 24.4%
MSCI FM MXFM Index 602 607 -0.84% 20.6%
EPS Growth PE(x)
Pakistan 18% 8.05
Indonesia 10% 15.18
Malaysia 13% 15.51
Philippines 6% 15.45
Vitenam 12% 17.79
India 25% 16.10
China 13% 13.02
% ROE Divd Yld
Pakistan 16.3% 6.33
Indonesia 14.89 2.37
Malaysia 9.98 3.39
Philippines 12.18 1.57
Vitenam 15.58 2.54
India 15.78 1.66
China 11.24 2.22
5
AKD Securities Limited
29 September 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Chart Bank
FIPI Flows for the week
Advance to Decline Ratio
AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index
LIPI Flows for the week
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential
KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-16
Dec
-16
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Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-17
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-17
Sep
-17
KSE100 MSCI EM
MSCI FM
4,679
(6,658)
4,570
(1,507)
(560)
(8,000)
(6,000)
(4,000)
(2,000)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
25-Sep-17 26-Sep-17 27-Sep-17 28-Sep-17 29-Sep-17
(US$'000)
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-16
Dec
-16
Jan-
17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-17
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-17
Au
g-17
Sep
-17
(%)
Ind., (2.04)
Co., 2.22
Bank/DFI, (10.32)
NBFC, (0.07)
M.Funds, 6.23
Ins, (0.24)Others, (1.69)
Prop. Trading , 5.38
(12.00)
(10.00)
(8.00)
(6.00)
(4.00)
(2.00)
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
Sep-1
6
Nov-1
6
Dec-1
6
Jan-1
7
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Apr-
17
Ma
y-17
Jun-1
7
Jul-1
7
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
-9%
-4%
1%
6%
11%
16%
21%
26%
31%
36%
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
KSE-All Share Index AKD Universe
6
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Market PER Chart 2017
Source: AKD Research
Market P/BVS Chart 2017
Source: AKD Research
29 September 2017
Jul-0
7
Jun-
08
May
-09
Apr
-10
Mar
-11
Feb-
12
Jan-
13
Dec
-13
Nov
-14
Oct
-15
Oct
-16
Sep-
17
14.0
10.5
7.0
3.5
(x)
Jul-0
7
Jun-
08
May
-09
Apr-
10
Mar
-11
Feb-
12
Jan-
13
Dec-
13
Nov
-14
Oct
-15
Oct
-16
Sep-
17
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
(x)
7
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Active Coverage Cluster’s Valuations
29 September 2017
Source: AKD Research UR Urder Review
Stock Symbol Price TP Stance EPS(PkR) PE(x) PB(x) DY(%)
(PkR) (PkR) 16 17F 18F 16 17F 18F 16 17F 18F 16 17F 18F
Automobile and Parts
Indus Motors INDU 1,720.82 2,289.38 Buy 145.74 165.41 163.11 11.81 10.40 10.55 4.90 4.34 3.82 5.81 6.68 6.39
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 457.67 800.66 Buy 33.69 44.98 57.33 13.58 10.17 7.98 1.44 1.28 1.13 1.20 1.97 2.40
Cements
DG Khan Cement DGKC 146.86 263.00 Buy 20.06 19.73 22.71 7.32 7.44 6.47 0.98 0.85 0.77 4.09 4.09 4.77
Lucky Cement LUCK 565.18 1,150.00 Buy 40.03 42.34 44.96 14.12 13.35 12.57 2.64 2.29 2.00 1.77 2.12 2.30
Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 83.97 166.00 Buy 9.26 10.01 11.51 9.07 8.39 7.30 2.08 1.73 1.46 4.76 4.76 5.95
Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 32.52 43.00 Buy 3.89 1.89 3.54 8.36 17.18 9.18 2.43 2.28 2.15 8.46 2.77 9.23
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 89.94 170.00 Buy 11.09 13.65 13.62 8.11 6.59 6.60 1.91 1.64 1.48 6.95 7.12 8.62
Cherat Cement Co Limited CHCC 119.98 198.00 Buy 7.96 12.24 15.45 15.08 9.80 7.77 2.32 1.89 1.63 1.61 2.23 5.00
Gharibwal Cement Ltd GWLC 33.21 100.00 Buy 6.70 5.71 7.39 4.93 5.84 4.49 1.35 1.20 1.06 7.53 9.79 12.80
Engineering
Amreli Steels Ltd. ASTL 101.97 106.00 Neutral 4.31 3.72 7.11 23.68 27.41 14.34 2.83 2.62 2.34 1.96 1.96 3.43
Fertilizers
Engro Corporation ENGRO 303.09 374.00 Buy 131.94 19.21 21.32 13.54 9.90 8.52 1.85 1.75 1.59 4.43 5.56 6.45
Engro Fertilizers Limited EFERT 62.91 72.82 Accumulate 6.76 7.19 7.23 9.31 8.75 8.70 1.98 2.03 1.92 11.09 8.57 9.19
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 35.85 62.60 Buy 1.43 2.27 1.70 25.02 15.81 21.08 2.63 2.48 2.40 1.39 5.53 4.15
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 83.14 96.86 Accumulate 9.26 6.97 7.66 8.98 11.93 10.86 3.75 3.64 3.52 9.50 7.54 8.29
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 34.05 45.11 Buy 4.66 5.06 5.44 7.31 6.73 6.26 1.44 1.31 1.21 8.21 9.66 11.18
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 95.03 84.20 Reduce 3.11 0.75 1.19 30.52 127.00 79.58 4.25 3.94 3.72 - - -
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 148.64 190.00 Buy 13.94 14.83 18.46 10.66 10.02 8.05 1.34 1.23 1.11 3.50 4.04 3.70
Pak Oilfields POL 532.04 437.00 Reduce 30.58 40.92 61.32 17.40 13.00 8.68 4.17 4.00 3.64 6.58 7.52 9.77
Pakistan Petroleum PPL 174.69 205.00 Accumulate 8.47 18.10 19.82 20.62 9.65 8.82 1.79 1.64 1.47 3.29 5.15 4.58
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 281.09 422.53 Buy 9.97 16.44 21.55 28.19 17.10 13.04 5.52 4.96 4.38 2.49 3.82 4.98
Attock Petroleum APL 625.73 745.14 Accumulate 46.16 65.27 75.54 13.56 9.59 8.28 3.53 3.37 3.20 6.39 9.08 10.51
Pakistan State Oil PSO 441.76 539.31 Buy 37.81 63.38 64.82 11.68 6.97 6.82 1.32 1.17 1.06 2.83 5.66 6.11
Power
Hub Power Co. HUBC 111.81 142.70 Buy 10.00 8.29 12.42 9.89 9.99 9.00 4.69 4.22 4.14 9.84 6.71 9.84
K-Electric Co. KEL 7.04 UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 76.04 85.00 Accumulate 10.31 10.84 11.40 7.38 7.01 6.67 2.16 2.08 1.99 11.84 11.90 12.82
Fixed Line Telecommunication
Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 14.73 19.00 Buy (0.58) 1.67 1.92 8.76 7.29 7.32 0.82 0.83 0.85 15.27 15.27 16.97
Personal Goods
Nishat Mills NML 145.10 185.29 Buy 14.00 17.11 18.73 10.36 8.48 7.75 0.62 0.59 0.56 3.45 4.65 5.86
Banks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 87.49 106.61 Buy 12.84 13.16 13.92 6.82 6.65 6.28 0.98 0.91 0.85 8.00 8.57 9.14
Bank AlFalah BAFL 42.42 48.43 Accumulate 4.97 5.40 5.51 8.53 7.86 7.70 1.11 1.02 0.89 - - 2.36
Habib Bank Limited HBL 180.76 253.08 Buy 23.23 22.13 24.11 7.78 8.17 7.50 1.35 1.25 1.16 7.75 7.75 7.75
MCB Bank Limited MCB 209.00 232.52 Accumulate 19.82 19.91 23.56 10.54 10.50 8.87 1.59 1.55 1.47 7.66 7.66 8.61
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 49.14 73.67 Buy 8.35 8.59 10.12 5.89 5.72 4.85 0.56 0.55 0.53 14.25 14.25 15.26
United Bank Ltd UBL 190.17 250.87 Buy 22.70 22.31 24.32 8.38 8.52 7.82 1.42 1.33 1.25 6.84 6.84 6.84
8
AKD Securities Limited
29 September 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Coverage Cluster’s Performance
Source: KSE & AKD Research
Stoc ks Symbol Pric e 1 Ye a r 1 Ye a r
2 9 - Se p- 17 1M 3 M 6 M 12 M CYTD High Low
KSE- 10 0 Inde x 4 2 ,4 0 9 .2 7 2 .9 - 9 .2 - 12 .3 5 .2 - 11.3 52,876.5 39,872.9
Automobile a nd Pa rts
Indus Motors INDU 1720.82 0.5 - 5.9 8.2 18.7 6.6 2044.30 1449.98
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 457.67 - 2.3 - 42.1 - 28.2 - 18.7 - 25.3 903.91 436.74
Ce me nts
DG Khan Cement DGKC 146.86 - 1.6 - 30.7 - 36.9 - 21.8 - 33.8 245.37 146.86
Lucky Cement LUCK 565.18 - 6.2 - 33.1 - 33.9 - 17.7 - 34.8 994.65 565.18
Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 83.97 - 4.4 - 25.7 - 33.4 - 13.6 - 34.2 137.64 83.97
Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 32.52 - 4.1 - 22.1 - 24.1 - 8.2 - 27.9 48.19 32.16
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 89.94 - 6.1 - 32.6 - 38.0 - 15.1 - 36.7 160.02 87.78
Cherat Cement Limited CHCC 119.98 - 10.2 - 32.3 - 36.9 - 6.8 - 31.1 212.00 119.98
Gharibwal Cement Limited GWLC 33.21 - 8.3 - 27.5 - 44.9 - 38.5 - 33.5 67.48 33.21
Engine e ring
Amreli Steel Ltd ASTL 101.97 9.1 - 16.4 n.a. n.a. 53.1 137.97 57.77
Fe rtilize rs
Dawood Hercules DAWH 123.36 8.3 - 12.1 - 6.6 - 6.2 - 14.5 161.23 109.27
Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT 62.91 10.5 12.0 - 1.9 16.7 - 7.5 73.28 51.90
Engro Chemical ENGRO 303.09 5.5 - 9.2 - 18.7 5.3 - 4.1 399.16 279.14
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 34.05 19.4 2.4 - 11.8 0.1 - 7.7 41.29 27.26
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 35.85 8.4 - 13.1 - 31.8 - 30.6 - 30.0 58.41 32.17
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 83.14 18.3 - 1.7 - 20.5 - 20.4 - 20.3 118.96 70.07
Food Produc e rs
Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 95.03 14.4 - 23.9 - 43.7 - 31.8 - 50.5 207.82 83.07
Oil & Ga s
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 148.64 3.1 2.4 1.5 5.0 - 10.1 188.71 133.69
Pak Oilfields POL 532.04 11.0 18.0 19.5 33.8 - 0.5 559.58 396.51
Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. PPL 174.69 3.8 16.5 14.0 7.0 - 7.2 193.32 143.73
Pakistan State Oil PSO 441.76 4.8 13.2 3.2 6.9 1.7 486.05 368.35
Attock Petroleum Ltd. APL 625.73 - 1.0 - 0.7 - 1.6 19.6 - 8.6 749.39 520.00
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 281.09 - 8.9 - 13.5 - 10.5 27.7 - 16.7 389.41 220.12
Powe r
Hub Power Co. HUBC 111.81 - 1.1 - 8.1 - 16.2 - 6.8 - 9.5 145.43 103.15
K- Electric Limited KEL 7.04 15.6 2.8 - 15.4 - 21.8 - 24.9 10.67 6.08
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 76.04 6.1 5.7 - 5.5 - 9.7 - 3.5 85.02 69.48
Fixe d Line Te le c ommunic a tion
Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 14.73 7.2 - 5.9 - 10.7 - 18.9 - 14.3 19.45 13.63
Pe rsona l Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 54.52 3.9 10.7 - 11.9 21.9 - 12.7 72.67 44.55
Nishat Mills NML 145.10 1.8 - 9.1 - 12.8 7.3 - 4.7 185.63 135.20
Ba nks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 87.49 1.9 - 1.5 - 8.1 - 10.6 - 26.6 122.00 84.34
Bank AlFalah BAFL 42.42 10.6 5.1 15.9 47.7 11.7 47.24 28.59
Habib Bank Limited HBL 180.76 - 8.2 - 32.0 - 35.1 - 17.7 - 33.8 308.57 152.94
MCB Bank Limited MCB 209.00 9.4 - 2.1 - 7.1 - 3.6 - 12.1 262.10 190.43
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 49.14 - 13.8 - 15.7 - 34.6 - 32.8 - 34.4 82.66 48.73
United Bank Ltd UBL 190.17 0.8 - 19.3 - 16.4 - 4.7 - 20.4 275.38 184.31
Absolute Pe rforma nc e (%)
9
AKD Securities Limited
29 September 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Economic Snapshot
Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research
End Month Data Units Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17
T-bill
3M % 5.84 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85
6M % 5.86 5.89 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90
12M % 5.86 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90
PIB 10Y % 8.05 8.44 8.21 8.17 8.24 8.26 8.21 8.18 8.2 8.23
KIBOR 6M % 5.84 5.89 5.87 5.87 5.88 5.91 5.90 5.90 5.89 5.90
Discount rate % 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25
Policy rate % 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75
Inflation
Headline inflation % 3.81 3.73 3.66 4.22 4.94 4.78 5.00 3.9 2.9 3.4
Core inflation % 5.30 5.20 5.40 5.30 5.30 5.50 5.50 5.5 5.6 5.5
Food inflation % 3.30 3.00 2.60 3.70 5.00 4.40 4.90 2.4 (0.10) 1.3
External Indicators
Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 1,762 1,727 1,780 1,638 1,801 1,805 1,627 1,912 1,631 1,866
Import (PBS) US$ (mn) 4,230 4,488 4,724 4,419 5,009 4,998 5,092 4,534 4,835 4,952
Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn) (2,468) (2,761) (2,944) (2,781) (3,208) (3,193) (3,465) (2,622) (3,204) (3,086)
Export (SBP) 1,841 1,860 1,783 1,769 2,061 1,766 1,954 1,865 1,828 2,104
Import (SBP) 3,785 4,109 4,196 4,017 4,305 4,108 4,633 5,054 4,720 4,262
Trade Deficit (SBP) (1,944) (2,249) (2,413) (2,248) (2,244) (2,342) (2,679) (3,189) (2,892) (2,158)
Home Remittances US$ (mn) 1,616 1,584 1,488 1,417 1,694 1,539 1,867 1,840 1,542 1,955
Current Account US$ (mn) (836) (1,037) (1,202) (822) (562) (1,337) (1,651) (1,431) (2,051) (550)
Banking Sector
Deposits PkR (bn) 10,472 11,203 10,704 10,730 11,170 11,214 10,993 11,981 11,702 11,651
Advances PkR (bn) 5,251 5,572 5,468 5,477 5,697 5,777 5,936 6,176 6,028 6,035
Investments PkR (bn) 7,053 7,233 7,374 7,467 7,670 7,794 7,849 8,166 7,989 8,145
W. A. lending rate % 8.06 8.04 8.01 7.99 7.89 7.85 7.87 7.86 7.88 n.a
W. A. deposit rate % 3.09 3.02 3.05 3.02 2.99 2.98 2.89 2.84 2.91 n.a
Spread rate % 4.97 5.02 4.96 4.97 4.90 4.87 4.98 5.02 4.97 n.a
Public Finance
Tax collection PkR (mn) 216,273 382,686 223,856 225,486 346,999 249,958 330,957 511,449 n.a n.a
Direct taxes PkR (mn) 81,120 182,988 81,741 80,019 147,242 78,407 117,084 247,210 n.a n.a
Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 135,153 199,698 142,115 145,467 199,757 171,551 213,873 264,239 n.a n.a
Currency
Fx Reserves US$ (mn) 23,383 23,200 22,242 22,072 21,572 21,019 21,190 21,402 20,223 20,387
USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD 104.83 104.58 104.84 104.84 104.82 104.79 104.84 104.86 105.48 105.38
10
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
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AKD Research Team
Analyst Tel no. E-mail Coverage
Umer Pervez +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Executive Director Research & Business Development
Zoya Zaidi +92 111 253 111 (603) [email protected] Banks, Telecoms & Consumers
Ali Asghar Poonawala +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Power & Automobiles
Waqas Imdad Ali +92 111 253 111 (637) [email protected] Fertilizer & Textile
Qasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical Analysis
Nasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production
Tariq Mehmood +92 111 253 111 (643) [email protected] Library Operations
29 September 2017