Download - Strategic Outlook of Global Hybridization Trends in Select Off Highway Commercial Vehicle Markets
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Strategic Outlook of Global Hybridization Trends in Select
Off-highway Commercial Vehicle Markets Growth in Demand is Set to Drive Production to Around 90,258 Units by 2018
NB77-18
February 2013
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Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 4
Research Scope, Objective, Background and Methodology 19
Definitions / Segmentation 26
Market Overview 30
Technology Trends and Analysis 41
Global Off-Highway Vehicle Powertrain Market – Quantitative Forecast 52
Competitive Dynamics 59
Key OEM Profiles 64
Conclusions, Recommendations, and Future Outlook 76
Appendix 81
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Impact of Mega Trends on Off-highway Construction and Agricultural Vehicles
Markets
Expansion of Industrial
Agriculture to ROW
• More global large-scale farms as governments address food security concerns
• Large harvesters and combines see sales growth in developing nations for mono-culture farming.
• Engines with more horsepower (100−400 hp) to see increasing demand.
Growth Industries of the Future
• Government infrastructure investment expected to resurface roads and rebuild bridges
• Agriculture: Population growth expected to result in increased food production especially from land sources, because fish and seafood stock are projected to decline.
Waste Diversion Programs
• Waste streams increasingly seen as potential new source of supply for metals, plastics, compost, and natural gas.
• This trend is expected to result in lower than projected demand for newly mined resources.
Smart and Eco Cities, Mass
Transit Infrastructure
• Mass transit infrastructure expected to see high demand in the future. Specifically, high speed, light, and monorail, along with bus rapid transit systems, to see increased market adoption.
• Increased demand seen for specialised equipment.
Alternative Fuels
• With emissions regulations for diesel engines becoming more stringent, a few OEMs are seeing a resurgence in demand for gasoline, LPG, and CNG engines in smaller equipment.
• Demand for bio-diesel and ethanol expected to remain strong.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Image source: zenlifesolutions.com,
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Impact of Mega Trends on Off-highway Construction and Agricultural Vehicles
Markets (continued)
Decreased demand for construction
equipment in developed markets
• The construction market is mature, and has relatively fewer activities in progress.
• A transition to rebuilding and maintenance rather than infrastructure expansion is occurring, indicating a demand for smaller vehicles and equipment.
New product opportunity—hybrid heavy construction
equipment
• Heavy-use, high duty-cycle heavy equipment demonstrating business case for hybrid power trains allows for smaller internal combustion engines than are normally associated with this equipment.
Rightsizing and downsizing
• Shift toward smaller engines expected, which provide the added benefit of offering greater visibility around equipment.
• Users are hobby farmers, small orchards, and vineyards using smaller tractors.
Growing regulations
• Trends toward stricter and greater regulations for noise and emissions from urban construction vehicles; in turn, this trend is expected to drive demand for low hp equipment. e.g. Tier IVi/Stage III
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Image source: zenlifesolutions.com,
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Key Findings Rising fuel prices and increasingly stringent emissions legislation expected to propel hybrid powertrain
production to 90,258 units by 2018.
• Strengthening emission regulations globally and continued volatility in fuel prices are the
key drivers for hybridization of off-highway equipment powertrains.
• Hybrid powertrains are expected to account for 3.0% (90,258 units) of global off-highway
powertrain production in 2018.
• Hybrid technology development is gaining focus in the regions of Europe, Asia and North
America in that order.
• Asia is expected to emerge as the key market among these three regions with an
estimated production of 43,000 units in 2018.
• Every major OEM in key markets is researching and developing hybrid powertrains.
Frost & Sullivan expects key product launches in the short- to medium-term.
• An estimated potential to reduce fuel consumption by up to 50.0%, these hybrid
powertrains are expected to command a price premium of 30.0% over equivalent
conventional powertrain equipment.
• Developments in power electronics, in particular in the field of insulated gate bipolar
transistors (IGBTs), are expected to drive cost reduction of hybridization in the medium
to long-term.
• Hybridization is an effective engine downsizing strategy; and hence Frost & Sullivan
expects market opportunity in the below 56kW (76hp) power bandwidth. The emission
requirements become less stringent below this point.
• Significant potential for application in urban environments since hybridization results in
smaller and quieter engines.
Global
level
Region
level
OEM
and
techno
-logy
level
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Drivers and Restraints Hybrid powertrain technology will enable emissions compliance and reduce total cost of ownership. Further
technical developments will reduce cost and drive growth, and technology and cost restraints.
Driv
ers
R
estra
ints
Driv
ers
R
es
train
ts
Technology
transfer from
the transport
sector
Significant fuel
economy improvement
benefits over
equivalent IC-only
powertrain
Strengthening
emission legislation
necessitating adoption
of hybrid powertrain Corporate social
responsibility
improving OEM
brand image
Technological
advancement and
maturity
accelerating OEM
adoption of
technology
Government
incentives driving
unit shipment
growth
High upfront
cost of hybrid
technology
High cost
of battery
technology
Suitability for
different
applications
Challenges in battery
technology raising
application concerns
Priorities for
rental market
customers
Customer
perception of
durability
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0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
2011 2018
Re
ve
nu
e (
$ M
illio
n)
Motor Generator Control Electronics Power Electronics
Ultracapacitor Battery
Strategic Fact Sheet The hybrid powertrain market is expected to account for 3.0% of the global off-highway powertrain market by
2018. Revenue from components market is expected to reach $644.4 million by 2018.
Off-highway Hybrid Commercial Vehicle Market: Powertrain Penetration, Global, 2011 and 2018
Off-highway Hybrid Commercial Vehicle Market: Hybrid Vehicle Component Revenue Forecast, Global, 2011 and 2018
$ 20.8 million
$ 644.4 million
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Asia Europe NA RoW
Re
ve
nu
e (
$ M
illio
n)
Motor/Generators Control Electronics
Power Electronics Ultracapacitors
Batteries
$33.4 mil.
$99.3 mil.
$194.6 mil.
$317.1 mil.
Off-highway Hybrid Commercial Vehicle Market: Hybrid Vehicle Component Revenue Forecast by Region, Global,
2018
Off-highway Hybrid Commercial Vehicle Market: Key Takeaways, 2011–2018
• By 2018, hybrid powertrain is expected to reach
3.0% of suitable applications or 90,258 units.
• Certain segments of the off-highway industry are
particularly suitable for hybrid powertrain. Ex:
excavators, wheel loaders, and forklifts.
• To drive widespread adoption of hybrid technology
mild hybridization needs to be adopted, enabling
machinery to be converted quickly and at a lower
cost. Economies of scale are also possible with
integrators developing flexible hybrid modules.
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2011 2018
Total Production Hybrid powertrain
1,775 90,258
Un
its P
rod
uce
d
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Regional Perspectives The Asian market is expected to produce 43,000 hybrid powertrain systems by 2018, thus accounting for
nearly half of total global production.
0.4
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
2011
2018
Un
its
pro
du
ce
d
(‘000)
Europe
0.2
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
2011
2018 U
nit
s p
rod
uce
d
(‘000)
North America
0.1 5
0
10
20
30
40
50
2011
2018 U
nit
s p
rod
uce
d
(‘000)
ROW
Off–highway Hybrid Commercial Vehicle Market: Global Production and Customer Perception by Region, 2011 and 2018
Leading Hybrid
OEMs in N.
America
Caterpillar
John Deere
Leading Hybrid
OEMs in Europe
Deutz
Heinzmann Leading Hybrid
OEMs in Asia
Komatsu
Toyota
North America
• Corporate social
responsibility is an
important driver.
• Comparatively lower
fuel costs affect the
business case for
adoption.
Europe
Fuel savings and corporate
social responsibility are
important drivers here,
leading to high penetration in
certain applications.
South America
Natural resource development will
require the development of
infrastructure.
Asia
• Sales are driven by fuel
economy and corporate
social responsibility.
• Reduced noise is an
important factor,
particularly when operating
in built-up urban areas.
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
1.1
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
20
11
20
18 U
nit
s p
rod
uce
d
(‘000)
Asia
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Why Develop a Hybrid Powertrain? Hybridization emerges as one of the key solutions capable of overcoming challenges in emission compliance
and fuel efficiency improvement.
Off-highway Machinery Characteristics
High Power
Requirements
Fuel economy has previously
been a secondary consideration
Duty Cycle •Often repetitive
•Frequent power reversal
•Involves stop/start operation
High Fuel
Consumption
Necessary to attain intermittent
high power
Industry Challenges
• Off-highway equipment are subject to
emissions legislation.
• Volatile and high fuel prices
• Move to reduce fuel consumption and to
reduce dependence on oil
• Focus on reduced noise levels for operator
comfort and environmental advantage
• Corporate social responsibility considerations
by market participants
Off-highway Hybrid Technology
Enables
smaller IC
engines to be
used
•Reduced fuel consumption
•Reduced exhaust emissions
•Quieter operation
Regeneration Energy normally lost through
stop/start operation and braking
is captured.
Fuel
consumption
Significant fuel savings can be
made on certain applications.
Down-
speeding
Engine operates at lower speed,
enabling further fuel savings.
Technologies Involved
• Serial electric (with and without energy
storage)
• Serial hydraulic (hydrostatic)
• Parallel electric
• Series-parallel
• Mild hybrid
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Solution
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Key Industry Participants The majority of key off-highway vehicle manufacturers focusing on development of hybrid technology and
equipment.
Key Component and
System Suppliers Atlas Weyhausen
Mecalac
Caterpillar
Shantui
Komatsu , Doosan,
Hitachi, Kobelco
Case, Sany,
Sunward, Yuchai (P)
TICO
Still
Mitsubishi
Doosan (P)
Volvo
John Deere
Hitachi
P = Planned Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
BAE, Henizmann, ZF, Dana,
Maxwell, Deutz, Eaton
The following are examples of OEM involvement
towards hybrid powertrain:
Bulldo
-zer
Fork
-lift
Wheel
Loaders
Compact
Equipment
Excav
-ators
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Regional Perspectives (Machinery) The perspectives on hybrid powertrain for off-highway equipment are distinct and varied with a different
emphasis in every region.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Market Machinery Powertrain Hybridization Factors
Europe • Wheel Loader
• Excavator
• Hybrid diesel-electric with energy
storage usually in the form of battery for
wheel loaders and capacitors for
excavators.
• Engine manufacturers are beginning to
ensure that future diesel engines are
‘hybrid-compatible’.
• Recent launch. Sales will initially be made for
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)
reasons. Later in the cycle fuel economy and
emissions will become more important.
• City centre operation and driver comfort will
drive sales of some machines
• First excavators are in the 20-tonne class.
Technology will penetrate other machine
capacities
APAC • Excavator
• Fork Lift
• Diesel-electric with capacitors
• Fork lift uses both serial and parallel
technology in the same platform.
Batteries are used for energy storage
• Key drivers are fuel economy and operator
comfort. Intensive work cycles and high fuel
costs create a good business case.
• Operator comfort is also recognized as a key
benefit (reduced noise).
North America • Bulldozers
• Hybrid Wheel
Loader
• Bulldozer uses diesel –electric currently
without energy storage. Possible use of
batteries as technology matures.
• Wheel loaders moving toward full series
hybrid
• Greater use of batteries will be considered
when cost reduces and technology improves.
• Rental firms (major customer group) are
beginning to enquire about fuel economy.
Technology premium will be key however.
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Geographic Regions
The regional markets covered in this research service are:
• North America consists of United States, Mexico and Canada
• Europe consists of Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Russia
• Asia consists of China, Japan, India, South Korea, Indonesia and Pakistan
• Rest of World consists of key markets in South America, Africa, Middle East, Rest of Asia, and Oceania
(Australia and New Zealand).
Geographic Definitions and Research Timeline Research Scope
Source: Frost & Sullivan research.
Off-highway vehicles Vehicle Type
2012 to 2018 Forecast Period
2009 to 2018 Study Period
2011 Base Year
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Key Contacts
Ananth Srinivasan
Team Leader – Off highway Vehicle Research
Linkedin:
http://www.linkedin.com/in/ananthapadmanabh
ansrinivasan
Sandeep Kar
Global Director- Commercial Vehicle Research
Jeannette Garcia
Corporate Communications – North America
Direct: +1.210.477.8427
Email: [email protected]
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