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Supply Chain Management: Market-Share
Matthew J. OlsonCIS 690 Research ProjectDr. Hsu
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Introduction Background: What is TAC-SCM The Base Agent: MinneTAC Why I Studied Market-Share Methodology: Winter’s Method Experiment Results Agent Variations The Second Experiment Results Conclusions
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Background The Trading Agent Competition – Supply Chain
Management (TAC-SCM) Each game has 6 autonomous agents buying
computer parts, building computers, and selling them to customers.
A game is 220 days in length. Each agent starts with a $0 balance and can
take loans. Interest on loans are charged. Interest on positive balance is given. A cost is associated with storage. The winner is the one with the biggest bank
balance at the end of the game.
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Background (cont.)
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Background (cont.)
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Background (cont.)
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MinneTAC
Minnesota’s TAC-SCM agent Code was given under the open source
license. After coming in 25th in the 2004
competition, they made some improvements and released this version.
One documented short-coming was market-share.
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Why I Studied Market-Share
Market-share was assumed at 1/6. (MinneTAC was one of six agents playing in a game.)
In the real world, market-share isn’t so quaint.
In the game, it isn’t a bad starting estimate, but as time goes on…
MinneKatTAC
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Methodology: Winter’s Method
Level: Ei=U(Ei-1+Ti-1)+(1-U)Yi
Trend: Ti=VTi-1+(1-V)(Ei-Ei-1)
U & V derived from experimentation. Y is the observed value (in our case,
(our orders)/(total orders) )
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Methodology: Winter’s Method (cont.)
double marketShare=1.0/6.0;double marketShareOld;double level=1.0/6.0;double levelOld;double u=0.995;double v=0.995;double minMarketShare=0.05;double maxMarketShare=0.5;
CustomerOrderList orderList = repository.getCustomerOrders();
for(int i=0;i<catalog.size();i++){ totalOrders+=
repository.getProductsOrdered(i);}
ourOrders=(double)orderList.size();if(totalOrders>0.0) { double orderRatio=ourOrders/totalOrders; marketShareOld=marketShare; levelOld=level; level=u*(levelOld+marketShareOld)+(1-
u)*orderRatio; marketShare=v*marketShareOld+(1-v)*(level-
levelOld); if(marketShare<minMarketShare) marketShare=minMarketShare; if(marketShare>maxMarketShare) marketShare=maxMarketShare;}
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Experiment Results 68.2%Game Results
0
5
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Game
$ A
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Us
Base
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Experiment Results 68.2%Average Revenue
22
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Us Base
$ A
mo
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Agent Variations
Ran 5 versions and the baseline 0 – previously described 1 – averaged market-share over 2 days 2 – averaged market-share over 3 days 3 – averaged market-share over 4 days 4 – halved market-share for 1st 22 days
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The Second Experiment ResultsGame Results
-10
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The Second Experiment ResultsGame Results
Base0
5
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Game
$ A
mo
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Conclusions
The modified agent is beating the baseline a majority of the time!
This shows that market-share is an important factor.
I would stand behind this agent in a competition!
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References
Berenson, Mark L., et al. Basic Business Statistics: Concepts and Apllications. Tenth Ed. 679.
Collins, John, et al. The Supply Chain Management Game for the 2006 Trading Agent Competition. November 2005. <http://www.sics.se/tac/tac06scmspec_v16.pdf>.
Collins, John, et al. MinnieTAC. University of Minnesota. <http://www.cs.umn.edu/tac/source.html>.
Collins, John, et al. Component-based Design for a Trading Agent. July 2004. <http://www.cs.umn.edu/tac/release/minnetac_design.pdf>.
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Questions
?