Download - Sustainability - the driver of innovation
Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture
Sustainability: the driver for
innovation?
Designing Resilient
Cities
Rob MacKenzie (on behalf of the Urban Futures team)
Monday 1 July, 2013
Sustainability, no matter what definition is used,
is all about the future - putting in place now interventions
(solutions) to problems that will yield a positive rather than negative
future legacy.
Sustainability and Interventions I
Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture
Question
“how sustainable are
the interventions we
propose?”
Designing Resilient Cities
Tower Blocks
Built as a response
to post-War housing
crisis
Initially seen as sign
of modernity
People enjoyed the
light, the new
bathrooms and
kitchens
Poor maintenance
Poor management
Failed lifts and other
amenities
Key Learning
Maintenance and
management critical to
success; intervention is
a system
Tower Blocks
for housing
What sometimes happens…
Case study
(+
Assessment
modelling)
Problem
identified
Solution
designed
Nothing
Happens
Solution
Successful
Something
bad happens
INNOVATION
Sustainability and Interventions II
For an intervention to succeed, certain necessary conditions must remain
in place
but these conditions are usually only implicitly considered (if at all) in
planning and development.
The continuation of necessary conditions determines the resilience of a
solution.
Joint ICE and APM Prestige Lecture
Question
“how sustainable are
the interventions we
propose?”
Designing Resilient Cities
Answer
“it depends on
what the futures
hold”
The Future is plural
Futures thinking exploits the human capacity for change
Urban Futures are
• derived from established philosophical positions: Thomas
Hobbes, JS Mill, Adam Smith, EF Schumacher.
• derived from global scenarios → consistency across scales
Derived urban futures can pressure-test sustainability solutions
Method gives rise to a shared rationale for interventions
can guide practice at every level from policy formulation through to
implementation in specific sites, reducing the risk of “box-ticking”.
How might the future change?
The
population
decreases?
The site is sold
and the new
owner doesn‟t
prioritise reduced
car ownership?
Someone
removes the
roadside
trees?
Live/work
becomes
the
norm?
Shopping
patterns
change?
Government
policy
changes? The city
becomes
more
densely
populated?
There is no budget in five
years to pay for
maintenance?
Residents prefer a
tumble dryer to
hanging their
washing outside?
Future Scenarios
How could the future develop?
New Sustainability
Paradigm
An ethos of „one planet
living‟ facilitates a
shared vision for more
sustainable living and a
better quality of life
Policy Reform
Comprehensive and
coordinated
government action
towards greater
sustainability is
initiated
Market Forces
Well functioning
markets are seen as
the key to resolving
social, economic and
environmental
problems
Fortress World
The world is divided,
with the elite in
interconnected,
protected enclaves
and an impoverished
majority outside
The Urban Futures MethodUsing future scenarios to determine performance of
interventions made in the name of sustainability
Sustainability and Interventions III
An Intervention must have at least one intended benefit,
but it is often lost in the design or decision chains of planning and
development.
Any solution/intervention can have unintended drawbacks.
Drawbacks are often context-specific, but so too are benefits.
MacKenzie, A.R., T.A.M. Pugh and C.D.F. Rogers, “Sustainable Cities: seeing past
the trees”, Nature, 468, p765, 9 December 2010.
SolutionGreywater
Recycling
BenefitReduced
Demand for
Potable Water
Step 1Sustainability Solution & First Benefit
Step 2Necessary Conditions for Success
• Non-potable water demand
• Enough greywater must be
collected
• Enough greywater must be
stored
• Must be economically viable
• Must be acceptable to the
community
• Others?
Interactive Tool
New Sust‟bility
Paradigm
Efficient
technologies
and use
Policy Reform
Efficient
technologies
but not use
Market Forces
No change
from current
behavior
Fortress World
Rich and Poor
Non-potable
water
demand
Low demandMedium
demandHigh demand
Rich – High
demand
Poor – Low
demand
Enough
water must
be collected
Risk not
enough
collected
Enough
collected
Enough
collected
Rich – Risk not
enough collected
Poor – not enough
collected
Enough
water must
be stored
Risk not
enough stored
Enough
stored
Enough
stored
Rich – Risk not
enough stored
Poor – Not enough
stored
Economically
viable
ROI takes too
long
ROI
borderline
acceptable
Fast ROIFast ROI for rich
and poor
Acceptable to
the
community
Highly
acceptable
Questionable
acceptability
Low
acceptabilityHigh acceptability
ScenariosN
ecessary
Conditio
ns
STEP 1
Solution & Benefit
STEP 2
Necessary Conditions
STEP 3
Future Performance
STEP 4
Resilience to future
change
STEP 5b
Adapt
STEP 5a
Implement
STEP 5c
Seek Alternative
INNOVATION
STEP 1
Solution & Benefit
STEP 2
Necessary Conditions
STEP 3
Future Performance
STEP 4
Resilience to future
change
STEP 5b
Adapt
STEP 5a
Implement
STEP 5c
Seek Alternative
The analysis has flagged up reasons why
the solution may fail. This is the starting
point for adapting the solution or..
INNOVATION
STEP 1
Solution & Benefit
STEP 2
Necessary Conditions
STEP 3
Future Performance
STEP 4
Resilience to future
change
STEP 5b
Adapt
STEP 5a
Implement
STEP 5c
Seek Alternative
This analysis - reasons why the solution may fail.
Starting point for adapting the solution or..
Considering more resilient alternatives
INNOVATION
INNOVATION
Lombardi DR, Leach JM,
Rogers CDF et al. (2012)
Designing Resilient Cities: a
Guide to Good Practice. IHS
BRE Press, Bracknell, UK
Sustainable innovation puts in place necessary conditions and avoids hostages to fortune
Urban-futures.org