Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center
Energy Systems in Sustainable Future
Dwindling reserves versus worldwide growth in demand will lead to energy prices beyond consumer’s ability to pay - leads to political tension and violence.
Conventional oil and gas reserves will probably be exhausted between 2030 and 2050.
Coal is the worst possible fossil fuel (most polluting of the fossil fuels and the one that produces the greatest amount of the greenhouse gas CO2 per unit energy), but the world has at least a 150 year supply of coal.
Conclusion: Sustainable future is not possible if we continue to rely on fossil fuel for energy. Therefore, a massive and immediate shift towards renewable sources is inevitable.
Summary from Lecture 1 - Fossil Fuel Future
Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center
Energy has strong relationship with three pillars of sustainable development.
Sustainability requires secure, reliable and affordable supply of energy.
Sustainable energy future is not static - it must be continuously redefined and rebalanced with new technical solutions and technologies.
Sustainability demands that we seek to change present trends.
Change the structure of energy sector, behavior in our societies and economics
Energy and Sustainability
Challenge: To fuel worldwide economic growth with secure and reliable energy supply without despoiling our environment
Source: IEA statement on sustainable development at the world summit on sustainable development, Johannesburg, 2002
Sustainable development
Economy
Environment Society
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Taxonomy of Sustainable Development Goals
Source: National Research Council, 1999
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Per Capita Energy Consumption and HDI
HDI: Human development index - a composite measure of development based indicators: life expectancy, educational level and per capita gross domestic product. Each data point corresponds to a country. Modest increase in PCEC can lead to marked improvements in the quality of life in the developing nations.
Source: Alan D. Pasternak, Global energy futures and human development: A frame work for analysis, UCRL-ID-140773, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, U.S. DOE, 2003
Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100 1000Energy Consumption Per Capita ('000 BTU/person)
Poverty
Affluence
Burkina Faso
United Kingdom
Mexico
Bangladesh
China
Poland
South Korea
UnitedStates.
FranceJapan
El Salvador Russia
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2; Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars. Updated May 2002
Per Capita Energy Consumption and GDP
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Energy Usage Sectors
• Residential
• Commercial
• Industry
Iron and steel, Chemicals and petrochemicals,
Cement and other industries
• Transportation
Road, Rail and aviation
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Energy Sources
• Oil
• Coal
• Natural Gas
• Nuclear
• Biomass
• Renewable Energy
Wind, Hydro, Solar Etc.
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Per
cent
of T
otal
Ene
rgy
Pro
duce
d
Wood
Coal
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
NuclearHydroNon-hydro Renewables
Energy Production and Fuel Type
Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation
Qua
ds/Y
r
Nuclear
Renew ables
Petroleum -- Imported
Petroleum -- Domestic
Nat. Gas -- Imported
Nat. Gas -- Domestic
Coal
US Primary Energy Consumption by Sector - 1999
Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center
Energy Consumption by Sector
Source: IEA Key World Statistics - 2003
Sector China (%) United States (%) India (%)Industry 40 25 27
Transportation 11 40 9Agriculture 3 1 2
Commercial &public services
14 13 1
Residential 29 17 58Non energy use 3 4 3
1 Mtoe: amount of energy released when one million tones of crude oil is burnt=41.868x1015 J
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2001
2010
2015
2020
2025
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percent of Total
OilNatural GasCoalNuclearRenewables
History
Projections
Energy Use for Electricity Generation
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Retail Prices ($) in selected Countries
Country Heavy Fuel Oil for Industry (tonne)
Automotive Diesel oil (liter)
Unleaded premium (liter)
ElectricityFor Industry (kWh)
ElectricityFor Households (kWh)
Natural gas for Industry (107 kcal GCV*)
USA 174.48 0.380 0.381 0.0470 0.0830 176.27
France 189.70 0.665 1.033 0.0368 0.1045 187.27
Japan 219.42 0.518 0.829 0.1426 0.2144 406.4
India 309.58 0.416 0.613 0.0801 0.0388 ------
*GCV: Gross Caloric Value
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US Energy Consumption
Effects of conservation and improvements in energy efficient
consumer and industrial and transportation sectors
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Evolution of Energy Intensity
Source: Prof. Daniel Kammen, UC Berkeley
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World Primary Energy
Source: Arthur Rosenfeld, commissioner, California Energy Commission
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Role of Technology
Source: Arthur Rosenfeld, commissioner, California Energy Commission
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Role of Technology
Source: Arthur Rosenfeld, commissioner, California Energy Commission
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Lighting Efficiency
Source: Secondary energy infobook, The need project 2005.
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Lighting Technology Evolution
Source: Light Emitting Diode (LED) technology and its impact on DLP television applications By DJ Segler, Texas Instruments Incorporated, DLP Products, March 2006.
Future Lighting
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Reduction in Energy Use 1973-2002 Industrial Sector
Example: 15.18 kWh/Kg to convert Bauxite to aluminum
Source: Secondary energy infobook, The need project 2005.
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Reduction in Energy Use 1973-2002 Transportation Sector
Source: Secondary energy infobook, The need project 2005.
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Urban Population Growth
Annual increments of the world population and the urban population
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Rising net income will propel consumer demand for automobiles -Effects oil consumption
Electricity Consumption:
Only 50% rural households have access in India
Power for all by 2012 in India
More money - more travel everywhere
Developing World
Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering CenterM
il lio
ns o
f Ba r
rels
per
Day
Actual: Annual Energy Review 2000 Tbls 1.2, 5.1 and 5.12Forecast: Annual Energy Outlook 2002 Tbls 7 and 11Split between Autos and Lt Truck: Transportation Energy Data Book Edition 21 Tbl 2.6 Updated April 2002
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
30 Domestic Petroleum Usage
Today
US Petroleum use in Transportation
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Domestic Oil Scenario
The United States produces 21% of Gross World Product
Uses 26% of the World’s oil
Produces 9%
Owns 2-3%
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mill
ions
of B
a rre
ls p
er D
ay
Domestic Petroleum Usage
Today
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
US Petroleum use in Transportation Sector
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Saudi Arabia 26%Iraq 11%Kuwait 10%Iran 9%UAE 8%Venezuela 6%Russia 5%Mexico 3%Libya 3%China 3%Nigeria 2%U.S. 2%
U.S. 26%Japan 7%China 6%Germany 4%Russia 3%S. Korea 3%France 3%Italy 3%Mexico 3%Brazil 3%Canada 3%India 3%
Have Oil Use Oil
Source: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), August 2002
Oil Dependency
Oil supplies are more concentrated and less secure
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Summary
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation
Qua
ds/Y
rNuclear
Renew ables
Petroleum -- Imported
Petroleum -- Domestic
Nat. Gas -- Imported
Nat. Gas -- Domestic
Coal
Immediate shift in ways to generate electricity and fuel type for transportation
Lead to reductions in coal and petroleum use
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The Electronic Way of Life
Future exponential growth of electric energy demand for
ComputersMobile cell phonesHome managementInformation technologyAviation securityHomeland defense
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Hydrogen Fuel - Electricity Demand
Electrolysis - 50 kWh/kg (commercial systems)With performance improvements: 40 kWh/kgElectric Energy Requirement for Large-Scale Production of Hydrogen Fuel
Business as Usual scenario
20 x 1012 kWh
Source: Paul Kruger, www.sciencedirect.com, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2005
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magr: mean annual growth rate
BaU: Business as Usual
World Hydrogen Fuel Energy Requirement
Source: Paul Kruger, www.sciencedirect.com, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2005
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Total World Power Capacity Requirement
Source: Paul Kruger, www.sciencedirect.com, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2005
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Transportation and Commercial energy usage are expected to increase around the world.
Transportation (especially personal) is expected to grow rapidly in developing countries and the proportion of energy in the residential sector will fall.
Electricity usage is expected to grow world wide with developingnations taking the lead.
Technology, economic conditions, energy prices and government legislation will affect the long term predictions.
Energy Demand Scenarios
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Renewable is used to describe the resource itself.
Sustainable is used to describe how the resource is used.
A resource is considered renewable when it is rechargedduring exploitation
A resource is considered sustainable if, using adequateprecautions, it can be exploited without creatingproblems for future generations
Renewable vs Sustainable
Source: Geothermal energy by Mary H. Dickson & Mario Fanelli, 2003.