Download - Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm
Water Land EcosystemHigh level dialogueNew Delhi
3rd May 2013
Prof. Johan RockströmStockholm Resilience Centre
Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development:
The scientific support for a new paradigm
2 Photos: Mattias Klum
3 - 6 - 9A Biosphere Shaped by Humanity
Growing Human Pressure[20/80 dilemma]
Climate change[560/450/400 dilemma]
Surprise[99/1 dilemma]
Ecosystem decline[60 % loss dilemma]
Global Freshwater Resources
23-04-12 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Humanity has reached a planetary saturation
point
The Human ability to do has vastly outstripped our
ability to understand
A resilient biosphere the basis for humen
development
Fierce urgency of now
A great transformation to global sustainability
necessary, possible, and desirable
Goal 1: Ending Extreme Poverty
Goal 2: Achieving Development within Planetary Boundaries
Goal 3: Achieve Gender Equality, Human Rights and the Rule of Law
Goal 4: Achieving Food Security and Rural Prosperity
Goal 5: Empowering Inclusive, Productive and Resilient Cities
Goal 6: Achieving Health and Wellbeing at all Ages
Goal 7: Ensure Effective Learning for Every Child for Life and Livelihood
Goal 8: Curbing Human-Induced Climate Change
Goal 9: Securing Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity
Goal 10: Transforming Governance for Sustainable Development
…
Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475
Global fresh-water use
Transgressing safe boundaries
Global water resources in the Anthropocene
IPCC AR4 Scenario, Mean deviation (%) 2080-2099, ensemble models
Social futures 20507000 > 9000 km3/yr
Hansen et al 2012
Extreme weather events more common, with larger social and economic impacts, coupled to human induced climate change
Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters
Food production to increase by ~70 % by 2050 to eradicate hunger on a planet with ~9 billion people (IIASTD 2009)
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km3
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Increase to reach the Hunger Goal 2015
2002 base line
The MDG Water Challenge
In the search of a new paradigm
For Sustainable IntensificationOf Agriculture for Human
Prosperity
Mats Lannerstad et al., in Prep
Green-Blue resources for sustainable development
100%100%
60%60%
40%40%GLOBAL
INDIA
KENYA
Dependence on green and blue water 2000
114
654
1080
239
787
1505
1692
907
219
Comprehensive Assessment 2007
Critical transitions or regime shiftsRegime shifts are substantial, persistent,
reorganizations in ecosystem structure and processes
Diverse Coral dominated
Algae Dominated Reef
Parkland Savanna Bush steppe
Agricultural Modification of ‘Green’ (ET) water flows
Irrigation + 1800-2500 km3/yr
Deforestation - 3000 km3/yr
Gordon et al. 2005, 2008
Total ET roughly 67000 km3/yr
Monsoon collapse
Savannisation
Dry savanna – wet savanna
Moisture feedback critical for rainfall
Operationalising a Paradigm Shift
Elements of a Paradigm Shift
• Integrated reform of irrigated and rainfed agriculture (participation; watershed management; blue-green integration)
• Nexus approach to land-water-ecosystems; agriculture-energy-water
• Landscape and water restoration• Rural water and sanitation – resource reuse• Water and wastewater use • Integated land, water ecoystem management• Institution reform (national water framework)
IrrigatedRainfed
A triply Green Revolution– 2-3 X production– Social-Ecological Resilience– Green water management
Meeting the Global food challenge
Strategies to upgrade rainfed agriculture
• Increase Crop water uptake capaciy
• Increase Crop water Availability
Upgrading Rainfed agriculture
Smallholder Agriculture + Water =
Solutions to Rural Poverty & Hunger
www.awm-solutions.iwmi.orgwww.awm-solutions.iwmi.org
Resource Reuse and Recovery: Productive Sanitation
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Integrated Land and water resource managementPayments for Ecosystem Services
< 25%25 - 50%50 - 75%75 - 100%
Green Water CreditsTana Basin, Kenya
0 50 10025 Km
±Decrease in Erosion (%)
Improved land management practices in Agriculture has the potentialt to sequester 0.4 – 1.2 Gt C/år
(Rathan Lal, Science 2004)
Transforming Agriculture from Source to SinkCoupling land management, fertilisation and water resource management (e.g., CA, ES, WH)
A new framework for Sustainable Development
Photo Mattias Klum
Feeding the world in the Anthropocene within a safe operating space of Planetary Boundaries requires a major global transformation of Agriculture
Sustainable Intensification for food security and rural prosperity the only possible strategy
TitleOur vision:
A world in which agriculture thrives within vibrant ecosystems, where communities have higher incomes, improved food security and the ability to continuously improve their lives