Thank you For Reading…
• Welcome to the FIFTH issue of the TradingFibz,
LLC weekly supplemental newsletter.
• It is my hope that the newsletter will take on a
new look and add in additional features to make
this a useful weekly tool in addition to my weekly
video recap and outlook.
• Major changes already in action with a new
chart look this week and video outlook on select
markets in next several weeks.
Disclaimer • Trading Stock, Futures, options on stocks/ futures and
retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.
• You may lose all or more of your initial investment.
• The lower the day trade margin, the higher the leverage and riskier the trade.
• Leverage can work for you as well as against you; it magnifies gains as well as losses.
• Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC
• HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME
OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY
ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE
SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY
ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED
WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE,
THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING
PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO
ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER
FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY
SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN
ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.
Markets can remain irrational longer than
you can remain solvent.
– John Maynard Keynes
Recap/Outlook Video
Jesse Livermore said it best…
(modified gender neutral)
“The average person doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What they desire is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. They
want to get something for nothing. They do not wish to work. They do not even wish to have to think.”
….take my charts/comments for the value that it all may go in either direction and always be prepared
regardless of where you think it should be.
Is there really a Crystal Ball?
• While there are a plethora of weekend forecasts of where the market may be headed in the next week, in the end, only a margin of those who claim to “know where we are going” get it right. The other half get it wrong.
• Truth is I have no clue and this is the core of my belief to simply trade the charts in front of me. My outlook is simply based on a “where we are currently” in technical momentum and what you should know may lie ahead or behind whether you are an intraday, short or long term trader.
Chart Key
BIG PICTURE
SPX (4hr)
Technical Momentum: BULLISH
T3 Moving Average: Bullish Pullback
Last month TREND: Bullish Indecision; Last major pullback in 2011/2012
VIX (4r)
Technical Momentum: BEARISH
T3 Moving Average: Bearish trend under 50/200 moving averages
Low Range: 9.3
This week: Look for continued momentum on Heikin Ashi bars to low range until trend change on bars followed by T3 averages. 50 period moving averages for 1st line in the sand.
Big Picture Technical Momentum
• Short term
– Q1 Earnings Season – APPL, FB to move QQQ/NQ
– Resistance and testing 2015 highs.
– Watch for pullbacks to key fib levels.
– Watch VIX as it nears low range and holds below 50ema.
– End of the Month Window Dressing, FOMC minutes
• Long Term
– Retesting highs; look for key moving averages for support
– Open Gaps will eventually be closed below signifying market will return to 2015 lows.
KEY INDICES
Key Indices
T3 Momentum
SPX(SP500)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
$DXY (Dollar)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
XAU (Gold/Silver)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
XOI (Oil Index)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
NYA (Composite Index)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
INDUSTRY LEADERS
Industry Leaders
T3 Momentum
IYJ (industrials)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
IYT (transportation)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
XLB (materials)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
XLE (energy)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
XLF (financial)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
XLK (technology)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
XLP (consumer staples)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
XLU (utilities)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
XLV (health care)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
FUTURES
Indices
Index Futures
T3 Momentum
ES
Watch VIDEO RECAP for upside and downside areas for support and resistance. Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
ES Daily – Open Gaps/Fibs
NQ
Watch VIDEO RECAP for upside and downside areas for support and resistance. Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
NQ Daily – Open Gaps/Fibs
TF
Watch VIDEO RECAP for upside and downside areas for support and resistance. Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
TF Daily – Open Gaps/Fibs
YM
Watch VIDEO RECAP for upside and downside areas for support and resistance. Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
YM Daily - Open Gaps/Fibs
6E
Watch VIDEO RECAP for upside and downside areas for support and resistance. Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
FUTURES
Commodities
CL
Watch VIDEO RECAP for upside and downside areas for support and resistance. Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
CL Daily - Fibs
GC
Watch VIDEO RECAP for upside and downside areas for support and resistance. Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
ETF FUTURES
ETF Futures
T3 Momentum
DIA
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
FXE
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
IWM
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
QQQ
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
SPY
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
GLD
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
USO
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
EEM (emerging markets)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
TLT (20yr Bond)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
MARKET CAP LEADERS
Market Cap Leaders
T3 Momentum
AAPL
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
AMZN
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
FB
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
GOOG
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
NFLX
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
SBUX
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
FX PAIRS
FX Pairs
T3 Momentum
AUD/USD
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
EUR/USD
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
GBP/USD
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
USD/CAD
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
USD/CHF
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
USD/JPY
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
TOTAL STOCK MARKET INDEX
ETF
Total Stock Index
T3 Momentum
IYY (Dow Jones)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
VTI (Vanguard)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
SCHB (Schwab)
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to
continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
WATCHLIST/HOLDINGS
Jason Kelly Strategy
Jason Kelly Strategy
T3 Momentum
Jason Kelly Quarter Signal:
BUY to achieve 3% growth
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
IJR (small cap)
Jason Kelly Quarter Signal:
BUY to achieve 3% growth
Intraday 50/144ema trend will be leading momentum on the 4hr chart to continue trend or counter to key moving averages.
MVV (mid cap)
CONNECT WITH….
For more information…
If you are interested in attending a FREE session in the trading room, please email me
[email protected] For a complimentary Friday Session
Where to find me online…
Recommended Sites
• JasonKelly.com
• Shadowtrader.net
• Educofin.com