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South China Sea:Major Developments in 2013
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. ThayerFifth International Workshop on theSouth China Sea, Melia Hotel, Hanoi
November 11-12, 2013
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Outline
1. ASEAN Unity on a Code of Conduct
2. New Tensions in China-Philippine
Relations3. China-ASEAN Consultation on a COC
4. Role of the Major Powers
5. South China Sea in Bilateral Relations
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1. ASEAN Unity on COC Restored
http://globalbalita.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/ASEAN-April-2013.jpg -
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2. New Tensions
in China-Philippines Relations
Claim to the Arbitral Tribunal
JanuaryPhilippines lodges Notification and
Statement of Claim AprilArbitral Tribunal established
Julyfirst session held
Augustfirst procedural order March 30, 2014 deadline for Philippines to
respond
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China posts
PLAN and Coast
Guard ships to
Second Thomas
Shoal
http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=fY81Z8H126dTuM&tbnid=WnAfRMT_HkuegM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines_and_the_Spratly_Islands&ei=cK99UpSyCIWMkwXvmoBI&bvm=bv.56146854,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNFxo0pRiamQWHStdzo0OfWKqWieCA&ust=1384054971460136http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=fY81Z8H126dTuM&tbnid=WnAfRMT_HkuegM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines_and_the_Spratly_Islands&ei=cK99UpSyCIWMkwXvmoBI&bvm=bv.56146854,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNFxo0pRiamQWHStdzo0OfWKqWieCA&ust=1384054971460136http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=fY81Z8H126dTuM&tbnid=WnAfRMT_HkuegM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines_and_the_Spratly_Islands&ei=cK99UpSyCIWMkwXvmoBI&bvm=bv.56146854,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNFxo0pRiamQWHStdzo0OfWKqWieCA&ust=1384054971460136http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=fY81Z8H126dTuM&tbnid=WnAfRMT_HkuegM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines_and_the_Spratly_Islands&ei=cK99UpSyCIWMkwXvmoBI&bvm=bv.56146854,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNFxo0pRiamQWHStdzo0OfWKqWieCA&ust=1384054971460136http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=fY81Z8H126dTuM&tbnid=WnAfRMT_HkuegM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines_and_the_Spratly_Islands&ei=cK99UpSyCIWMkwXvmoBI&bvm=bv.56146854,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNFxo0pRiamQWHStdzo0OfWKqWieCA&ust=1384054971460136http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=fY81Z8H126dTuM&tbnid=WnAfRMT_HkuegM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines_and_the_Spratly_Islands&ei=cK99UpSyCIWMkwXvmoBI&bvm=bv.56146854,d.dGI&psig=AFQjCNFxo0pRiamQWHStdzo0OfWKqWieCA&ust=1384054971460136 -
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Second Thomas Shoal
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Scarborough Shoal: Rocks or Blocks?
Concrete blocks preludeto construction
Violation of the DOC
Diplomatic protest
mooted
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3. China-ASEAN Consultations
on a Code of Conduct
MarchNational Peoples Congress elects XiJinping President, Wang Yi Foreign Minster
April - 19thASEAN-China Senior Officials
Consultations June - ASEAN China Foreign Ministers meet in
Brunei
August Foreign Minister Wang Yis caution
September6th SOM and 9thWorking GroupMeeting on the Implementation of the DOC
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4. Major Powers
U.S. Rebalancing and the Philippines
Philippines continues force modernization and
purchase of frigates and jet aircraft
Joint Vision Statement to upgrade Mutual
Defence Treaty (August)
Discussions on increased rotational presence
of US forces at Philippine military facilities
Current impasse over issue of control and
access to temporary US facilities
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Major Powers
U.S. Rebalancing and Vietnam
July 25Joint Statement establishes
Comprehensive Partnership
US investment in Vietnams energy sector
Defense and Security Cooperation
October - 6thPolitical, Security, and Defense
Dialogue
October - 4thDefense Policy Dialogue
MOU cooperation between Coast Guards
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Major Powers
China Provocative Military Exercises
James Shoal 80 kmoff East Malaysia
March 2013
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Bilateral Relations
Philippines and Taiwan
May 9, Philippines Coast Guard officers fatally
shoot a Taiwanese fisherman
Three-month crisis in bilateral relations
Taiwan issues 72-hour ultimatum, Philippines
apology deemed insincere, eleven sanctions
imposed, military exercises conducted
AugustPhilippines apology accepted,
sanctions ended, fishery talks commence
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Bilateral Relations
China Hypes Joint Development
China and Vietnam
Decline in maritime incidents
Premier Li Keqiang promotes joint development
China and Malaysia Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein, Just
because you have enemies, doesn't mean yourenemies are my enemies.
China and Brunei agreed to enhance maritime cooperation to promote
joint development
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Conclusion
ASEANs new sense of political unity to enter
into consultations with China over COC
Chinese wedge politics to isolate Philippines Change in Chinese policyconsultations on
COC, maritime cooperation, magic wand of
joint development Intrusion of power politics by major powers
US rebalancing, Chinese military exercises, Japanese provision of
patrol boats
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Conclusion
Taiwans role as claimant cannot be ignored
China-Vietnam relations on a positive upward
trajectory
Malaysiahedging strategy towards China
China-Bruneicommercial agreement
China hyping maritime cooperation and jointdevelopment as part of a new charm offensive
COC discussions will be protracted
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South China Sea:Major Developments in 2013
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Email: [email protected]