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Innovation’s New World Order
2015 Global Innovation 1000
October 2015 Webinar
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Introduction
R&D spending and trends
Globalization of R&D
October 2015 1
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Study authors
October 2015 2
Barry Jaruzelski [email protected]
is a principal with Strategy&, PwC’s strategy consulting business, and with PwC US. Based in Florham Park, N.J., he works with high-tech and industrial clients on corporate and product strategy and the transformation of core innovation processes. He created the Global Innovation 1000 study in 2005, and in 2013 was named one of the “Top 25 Consultants” by Consultingmagazine.
Kevin [email protected]
is a principal with PwC US, and leads the firm’s innovation and development consulting services. Based in San Francisco, he focuses on driving enterprise-wide innovation and enabling growth through new products, services, and business model innovations.
Volker [email protected]
is a principal with Strategy&, PwC’s strategy consulting business, and with PwC US. He focuses on engineered products and services, particularly in the automotive and heavy equipment industries, and specializes in strategic product value management, turnarounds, and implementation of global M&A.
Strategy& | PwC
For the 11th year Strategy&, PwC’s strategy consulting business, studied innovation trends at the world’s 1,000 largest publicly listed corporate R&D spenders
October 2015 3
2009:Profits Down,
Spending Steady
2005: Money Isn't Everything
2006: Smart Spenders
2007: The Customer
Connection
2008: Beyond Borders
2010: How Top
Innovators Keep Winning
2011:Why Culture
Is Key
2012:Making Ideas
Work
2013:Navigating the Digital Future
2014:Proven Paths to
Innovation Success
2015:Innovation’s New
World Order
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The study has become a recognized contributor in better understanding what drives success in R&D and innovation
October 2015 4
• The Global Innovation 1000 study has received significant media and academic recognition over past decade:
– Called “the most comprehensive assessment of the relationship between R&D investment and corporate performance” by The Economist in 2009
– Awards:• Silver (2011) and Gold Medals (2014)
for original research by the American Society of Business Press Editors
• “Best of Visions” award from PDMA in 2009
• Special Achievement Award for advancing innovation dialog from the Innovate Forum in 2006
– Cited in more than 180 publications spanning 27 countries & 6 continents
Global Innovation 1000: Selected Press Coverage
Strategy& | PwC
In addition to performing our annual R&D spending analysis, we examined the globalization of R&D
October 2015 5
•R&D Spending and Trends
Analysis of R&D Spending and Trends− Annual R&D spending across the 1,000 largest R&D
spenders globally (publicly-traded firms)− R&D spending by region and industry (absolute
spending, growth, and proportion of total)− R&D intensity (spending as a percent of revenue)− Top 20 R&D spenders globally− 10 Most Innovative Companies
Methodology− Spending determined on the basis of companies‘
annual reports from their most recent fiscal year, as of June 30, 2015
− Most Innovative Companies determined based on a web survey of 369 senior R&D executives and Innovation leaders
•The Globalization of R&D
Understanding Global R&D Flows − How much and where in the world are companies
choosing to spend their R&D− How regional spending has changed since we last
looked at this topic in 2008, “Beyond Borders”
Methodology− We researched the global R&D footprint of:
• Top 100 companies from the Global Innovation 1000
• Top 50 companies in the largest three industries: auto, healthcare, and computing & electronics
• Top 20 companies in industrials, and software & Internet
− This resulted in 207 companies – reflecting overlap – which are headquartered in 23 countries, conducting R&D activities at 2,041 R&D sites in more than 60 countries, and represent 71% of the total Global Innovation 1000 R&D spend.
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Introduction
R&D spending and trends
Globalization of R&D
October 2015 6
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Executive Summary
7
• In 2015, R&D spending by the Global Innovation 1000 increased 5.1% to $680 billion, the largest year-over-year increase since 2012. R&D spending is now in line with the long-term trend of R&D spending growth of 5.4% over the last 10 years.
• R&D intensity – spending as a percent of revenue - also spiked to 3.7% from 3.5% in 2014, which is the result of falling revenues experienced by the Global Innovation 1000. Similar to what happened in 2010 after the Great Recession, companies tend to stick with their innovation program despite cyclical revenue fluctuations.
• Software & Internet had the highest year-over-year growth rate (27%) of all the industries, which propelled it past the industrials sector to become the fourth-largest industry by R&D spend.
• Apple made its first-ever appearance in the Top 20 R&D Spenders list and has an intensity of 3.3%, compared to an average of 12.5% for the other 19 companies on the list.
• Apple and Google remain the two most innovative companies, according to our survey respondents, while Tesla jumps to third place, pushing Amazon down to fifth. Toyota rejoins the ranking at number 10 after a two-year hiatus.
October 2015
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Higher R&D spend doesn’t ensure performance…
October 2015 8
The Performance DisconnectExample analysis showing relation between R&D & financial performance
y = 0.032x + 1.2914R² = 0.0114
-5
0
5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Indexed Sales Growth
~10,000 analyses found NO statistical relationship between R&D spend and:• Sales growth• Gross profit growth• Operating profit growth• Operating margin• Net profit growth• Net margin• Market cap growth• Total shareholder return
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis, Bloomberg data, Capital IQ data
Strategy& | PwC
…however, there is a minimum threshold – you can be “Too Rich” or “Too Thin”
October 2015 9
The Performance Disadvantage of the Bottom 10% of Spenders
1.01.0
1.71.9 1.9
1.7
Operating Profit Growth Index Regionally Adjusted Shareholder Return Index
Inde
xed
Perf
orm
ance
Indexed Middle 80%Indexed Bottom 10% Indexed Top 10%
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis, Bloomberg data, Capital IQ data
• Spending much less than industry median does lead to consistently lower performance
• Spending much more than industry median does notdrive consistently better performance
Strategy& | PwC
$680$647$638$614$560
$508$538$501$447$409$400
2006 2015
+70%
20132005
5.44%
2014201220112010200920082007
Y-o-Y Growth 2.2% 9.3% 12.2%
10-year CAGR = 5.4%
7.3% -5.6% 10.3% 9.7% 3.8%
10
1.4%
In 2015, R&D spending by the Global Innovation 1000 saw the return to the long-term growth trend
Global Innovation 1000 R&D Spending $US Billions
5.1%
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis, Bloomberg data, Capital IQ data
October 2015
Strategy& | PwC
Innovation 1000 firm revenue fell 1%, reversing the long-term trend of decreasing R&D intensity
11
Global Innovation 1000 R&D Intensity (Spending as a Percent of Revenue)
Y-o-YGrowth -8.5% -2.0% -0.8% -4.5% 5.3% -5.5% -2.0% 2.5% -2.2% 6.1%
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis, Bloomberg data, Capital IQ data
10-year Average
October 2015
2007
3.6%
2006 2011
3.6%
2013
3.6% 3.5%
2009 2014
-11.7%
3.7%3.7%3.9% 3.8%
2008
3.8%
2005
-1.24%
2010 2012
4.2%3.5%3.8%
2015
10-year CAGR = -1.2%
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Computing & electronics, healthcare, and auto continue to be the three largest industries in terms of total R&D spend
12
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis, Bloomberg data, Capital IQ data
2%3%
2%
TelecomConsumer
24%
11%Software and Internet
Auto
11%
Computing and Electronics
21%
16%
Healthcare
Aerospace and Defense3%
6%
Industrials
Chemicals and Energy
Other
2015 R&D Spending by IndustryTotal = $680 Billion
October 2015
Strategy& | PwC
Software & Internet passed industrials and healthcare is closing in on C&E as the largest industry by R&D spend
13
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis, Bloomberg data, Capital IQ data
$166
$145
$109
$75
$42
$76
$22$20$12
$60
$80
$0
$100
$140
$20
$180
$40
$160
$120
Healthcare
‘12
Chemicals and Energy
Other
Industrials
‘11 ‘15‘10‘05
Auto
Aerospace and Defense
‘14‘08
Consumer
‘07‘06
$10
‘09 ‘13
Computing and Electronics
Software and Internet
Telecom
R&D Spending by Industry$US Billions
October 2015
Strategy& | PwC
Software & internet grew at over 27%, far greater than the growth of all other industries from 2014 to 2015
14
-10.0%
-4.3%-2.8%-0.7%-0.1%
4.5%5.0%6.0%8.9%
27.4%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Software and Internet
%
Industrials Other ConsumerComputing and
Electronics
Chemicals and Energy
Aerospace and Defense
Auto TelecomHealthcare
% Change in R&D Spending by Industry2014-2015
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis, Bloomberg data, Capital IQ data
October 2015
Strategy& | PwC
Apple made its first-ever appearance in the Top 20 R&D Spenders in 2015 despite having a low intensity
15
Rank Company Region Industry 2015 R&D Spending ($B) Intensity (%)
1 Volkswagen Europe Auto 15.3 5.7%2 Samsung Asia Computing and Electronics 14.1 7.2%3 Intel North America Computing and Electronics 11.5 20.6%4 Microsoft North America Software/Internet 11.4 13.1%5 Roche Europe Healthcare 10.8 20.8%6 Google North America Software/Internet 9.8 14.9%7 Amazon North America Software/Internet 9.3 10.4%8 Toyota Asia Auto 9.2 3.7%9 Novartis Europe Healthcare 9.1 17.3%
10 Johnson & Johnson North America Healthcare 8.5 11.4%11 Pfizer North America Healthcare 8.4 16.9%12 Daimler Europe Auto 7.6 4.4%13 General Motors North America Auto 7.4 4.7%14 Merck North America Healthcare 7.2 17.0%15 Ford North America Auto 6.9 4.8%16 Sanofi Europe Healthcare 6.4 14.1%17 Cisco North America Computing and Electronics 6.3 13.4%18 Apple North America Computing and Electronics 6.0 3.3%19 GlaxoSmithKline Europe Healthcare 5.7 15.0%20 AstraZeneca Europe Healthcare 5.6 21.4%
Total $176.5
NEW
NEW
Increase or decrease within Top 20 ranking compared with 2014
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis, Bloomberg data, Capital IQ data
Top 20 R&D Spenders
Companies that have been among the Top 20 R&D Spenders since 2005
Honda fell to #21, IBM fell to #26,
October 2015
Strategy& | PwC
Apple & Google continue to lead the Most Innovative list, while Tesla has moved up to third
16
Rank 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1 Apple Apple Apple Apple Apple Apple
2 Google Google Google Google Google Google
3 3M 3M 3M Samsung Amazon Tesla
4 General Electric General Electric Samsung Amazon Samsung Samsung
5 Toyota Microsoft General Electric 3M Tesla Amazon
6 Microsoft IBM Microsoft General Electric 3M 3M
7 Procter & Gamble Samsung Toyota Microsoft General Electric General Electric
8 IBM Procter & Gamble Procter & Gamble IBM Microsoft Microsoft
9 Samsung Toyota IBM Tesla IBM IBM
10 Intel Facebook Amazon Facebook Procter & Gamble Toyota
10 Most Innovative Companies
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 survey data and analysis
October 2015
Strategy& | PwC
As in previous years, the 10 Most Innovative Companies outperform the top 10 R&D spenders
17
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis, Bloomberg data, Capital IQ data*Only 9 of the 10 Most Innovative Companies were included in Market-Cap Growth. Tesla was removed as it does not have Market-Cap data spanning back five years.
2015 10 Most Innovative Companies* vs. 2015 Top 10 R&D SpendersFinancial performance normalized by indexing values within each industry
Highest Possible Score:
Lowest Possible Score:
Normalized Performance of Industry Peers:
53%
65%63%
46%
63%55%
5Y Revenue Growth CAGR
5Y Market-Cap Growth CAGR
0%
50%
100%
5Y EBITDA as a % of Revenue Avg
Top 10 R&D Spenders10 Most Innovative Companies
October 2015
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Introduction
R&D spending and trends
Globalization of R&D
October 2015 18
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Executive Summary
October 2015 19
• R&D is now a global activity for the vast majority of major corporations, as 94% conduct R&D in countries beyond their home country.
• Asia has become the number one region for corporate R&D spending, Europe has fallen to number three, and North America remains in second place. In our 2008 study, this order was reversed.
• Asia’s rise was driven by strong imports and domestic R&D spending. Most notably, China increased in-country R&D spending by 79% and is closing in on the U.S. as the largest country destination for imported R&D.
• The U.S. is still the largest in-country (domestic and imported) R&D spender. However, its overall lead is shrinking against most Asian countries, but expanded over most Western European countries.
• Europe’s fall to third-largest region for R&D spending was the result of low growth in domestic and imported R&D, and high growth in exported R&D; most noticeably in France and Germany.
• Surveyed R&D professionals ranked access to talent and proximity to customers higher than tax advantages in choosing where to conduct R&D.
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The largest spenders by region have remained the same, but where they spend their R&D has changed
20
Corporate In-Region (Domestic & Imported) R&D 2007 & 2015 $US Billions
Corporate R&D by Companies Headquartered Region 2007 & 2015 $US Billions
Asia is now the top regional destination for R&D spending, followed by North America and Europe. In 2007, that order was reversed.
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis
October 2015
30% Europe
45%
2015
$480
2007
$351
North America
24%
34%
42%
0%Asia25%
+37%
Rest of World1% Rest of World
Europe
North America
Asia
5%
35%
$480
+37%
2007
33%34%
$351
27%
35%
28%
2015
4%In 2015, almost half of all R&D spend came from North American companies, but only about a third of all R&D was actually done in North America.
Strategy& | PwC
Asia’s rise as the top region for R&D spending was driven by both robust imports and domestic spending
21
Asia In-Country (Domestic & Imported) R&D 2007 & 2015 $US Billions
$55
$25
$10
$35
$45$40
$30
$20
$0
$15
$5
$50
Taiwan
$28
$7 $7
$50
+121%
$6
Japan
+32%
+115%$40
$13
$3
South KoreaChina
$55
+98%
Singapore
$25
+121%
+120%
India
+24%
$5
Rest of Asia
$3
$13
$7
20072015
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis
October 2015
Strategy& | PwC
Leading the way for Asia was China, which is closing in on the U.S. as the largest country for imported R&D
22
12%
7%
$44
6%
+141%
+79%
9%
2007
22%
15%
21%
10%
Japan
Germany
31%
$25
Switzerland
U.S.
2015
7%
South Korea
20%
Rest of World
41%
Top Five Countries That China Imported R&D from 2007 & 2015 $US Billions
Imported R&D by Country 2007 & 2015 $US Billions
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis
$10$0 $50$30$20 $60$40
+74%
Singapore +121%
+64%
+23%
+116%
France
Germany
U.K.
U.S.
+79%
+12%
India
Canada
Japan
-7%
Israel
+12%
-21%
China
20072015
October 2015
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R&D professionals ranked strategic reasons higher than cost advantages when moving R&D functions to China
23
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
26%33%
Easier Place to Export to the Rest of the World
Reliability of Project Execution
Experienced Labor Market
30%
Access to Technical Talent
39%
Lower Development
Costs
53%
Proximity to Key Suppliers
54%
Proximity to Key Manufacturing
Sites
59%
Proximity to High Growth
Market
71%
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 survey data and analysis
What Are the Benefits of Moving R&D Functions to China?n = 369
Top three responses based on proximity
October 2015
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The U.S. remains the largest in-country R&D spender...
24
In-Country (Domestic & Imported) R&D 2007 & 2015 $US Billions
$150
$0
$50
$100
France
+120%
+34%
Germany ItalyIsrael
+115%-21% +98% +69%
-5%+15%
+12%
South Korea
+41%
China
$109
U.S.
$25
$145
$11$7$13
$7$16$20$22$23$28
$13
$32$28
$50$40
Canada
$55
$11$8 $9 $10
Japan U.K.India
+24%
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis
October 2015
20152007
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…however, its lead against key Asian countries is eroding
October 2015 25
-50% 70%-40% 0% 20% 60%-20% 50%30%-10% 10%-30% 40%
China
France
$11
$22
South Korea
$32
5%
$13
Eastern Europe*
$10
$55
$14
Germany
$11
U.K.-41%
64%
Israel
Japan
-29%$16
-16%-14%
48%
Italy
61%
26%
$50
$28
Canada
-7%
15%
India
EuropeNorth AmericaRest of World
Asia
% Change 2007-2015, In-Country (Domestic and Imported) R&D Relative to the U.S. Height of bar = 2015 In-Country R&D Spend ($US Billions)
U.S. = 0 Gained Advantage Lost Advantage
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis*Eastern Europe Includes: Russia, Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Serbia, Turkey, and Slovenia
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U.S. firms significantly increased R&D performed in low-cost Asian countries such as China and India
26
Rest of World
43% U.S.
21%
$214
Europe
2015
11%
25% Asia
17%
11%
2007
$146
27%
45%
U.S. HQ Firms’ R&D Allocation 2007 & 2015 $US Billions
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis
9%
9%
8%7%6%5%
$80
10%
2007
45%
9%7%7%5%5%
15%
15%
Japan
$121
Israel
36%
Canada
China
Germany
2015
India
U.K.
Rest of World
Top 7 Countries That the U.S. Exported R&D to2007 & 2015 $US Billions
October 2015
In 2007, the U.K. was the top export destination for U.S. R&D. In 2015, it was third.
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Europe’s decline was the result of low growth in domestic and imported R&D, and high growth in exported R&D
27
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
R&D by Domestic
Companies
R&D Imported
R&D Exported
46%
18%
2%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
50%
40%
R&D by Domestic
Companies
R&D Exported
21%
R&D Imported
16%
86%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
R&D by Domestic
Companies
R&D Exported
R&D Imported
% Change in R&D Spending By Region2007-2015
North America Europe Asia
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis
October 2015
Strategy& | PwC
European firms increased their R&D allocation to Asian and North American high-cost countries
28
32% 29%
23%16%
23%25%
13% 14%
9%
$144
2%
Asian Low-Cost Countries (LCC)
3%
Asian High-Cost Countries (HCC)
Home
4%2%
48%
North American HCC
$119Rest of World
Eastern European LCC
57%
2007 2015
Western European HCC
5%
European HQ Firms’ R&D Allocation 2007 vs. 2015 $US Billions
October 2015
Home
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysisNote: High-cost countries (HCC) refers to countries with an average engineering wage > $35,000. All countries with an average engineering wage of less than or equal to $35,000 are low-cost countries (LCC).
Offshore
Nearshore
European firms decreased their total R&D allocated to Europe from 57% in 2007 to 48% in 2015.
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The three largest economies in Europe - the U.K., France, and Germany - all increased their share of exported R&D
29
33%($6)
67%($12)
Exported R&DDomestic R&D
20%($3)
80%($11)
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis
50%($10)
50%($10)
35%($8)
65%($14)
65%($20)
35%($11)
69%($35)
31%($16)
U.K. France Germany
2007
2015
R&D Allocation by Country 2007 vs. 2015 $US Billions
October 2015
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In fact, France only saw positive growth in exported R&D, but those exports were not to other European countries.
30
-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
R&D by Domestic Companies
R&D Imported R&D Exported
46%
-20%-21%
% Change
% Change in R&D Spending in France2007-2015
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysis
French HQ Firms’ R&D Export Allocation2007 & 2015 $US Billions
29%
26%
$14
Asia
Europe
12%
33%
Rest of World
2015
North America
2007
32%
0%$10
29%
38%
October 2015
North America replaced Europe as the primary destination for French R&D.
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R&D professionals ranked access to talent and proximity to customers as top factors in choosing where to conduct R&D
31
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Tax Advantages
71%
Access to Technical Talent
68%
Proximity to Customers
64%
Insight into Local Market Needs
56%
Operating Costs
44%
Labor Costs
38%
Software Design
34%
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 survey data and analysis
The Most Important Attributes When Considering Where to Conduct Your R&Dn = 369
October 2015
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R&D professionals ranked attributes related to managing employees most challenging when conducting R&D abroad
32
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
53%
Intellectual Property Protection
43%51%
Finding/Retaining Talent
Quality and Customer Focus
47%
Risk/Project Management
41%
Managing Cultural Differences
39%
Focus on Profitability*
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 survey data and analysis* Focus on profitability includes those who voted for “Currency risk” and “Return on investment”
The Most Challenging Attributes When Conducting R&D Outside of Home Country n = 369
October 2015
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In both 2007 and 2015, companies investing in R&D globally performed ~20% better over local R&D spenders
October 2015 33
1.31.2
1.0 1.01.00.9
3Y Op Margin
Indu
stry
Inde
xed
Med
ian
Valu
es
3Y Return on Assets
3Y Op Income CAGR
Global Local
1.31.3
1.2
1.01.01.0
5Y Return on Assets
5Y Op Income CAGR
Indu
stry
Inde
xed
Med
ian
Valu
es
5Y Op Margin
Discussion
Global R&D Driven companies invest more than 60% of their R&D spend on facilities outside their home country annually.
Local R&D Driven companies invest less than 60% of R&D spend on facilities outside their home country annually.
Global R&D vs. Local R&D DrivenMedian of OI CAGR, Op Margin, and ROA
2007 2015
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysisNote: In 2015, 38.57% is the median R&D spend at home among the universe of 207 companies studied; % of R&D spend in home countries ranges from 0 to 100%; Companies selected for the study are top 100 R&D spenders overall, the top 50 spenders in Auto, C&E and Health, and the top 20 in industrials and software.
Strategy& | PwC
Unlike in 2007, companies with more dispersed R&D footprints now outperform companies with focused ones
October 2015 34
1.4
1.31.3
1.01.01.0
3Y TSR
Indu
stry
Inde
xed
Med
ian
Valu
es
3Y Market Cap CAGR
3Y Op Income CAGR
Highly Focused Dispersed
1.01.01.01.11.1
1.2
5Y Market Cap CAGR
5Y Op Income CAGR
Indu
stry
Inde
xed
Med
ian
Valu
es
5Y TSR
Discussion
Highly Focused R&D Footprint players have the smallest number of R&D sites, after indexing against sales.
Dispersed R&D Footprint players have a widespread network of R&D locations.
Highly Focused vs. Dispersed R&D FootprintsMedian of OI CAGR, TSR, and Market Cap CAGR
2007 2015
Source: Strategy& 2015 Global Innovation 1000 analysisNote: In 2015, highly focused R&D footprint companies have less than 1.3 sales indexed R&D location, (1.3 representing the 25% percentile in the universe of 207 companies); Number of indexed R&D locations range from 0.03 to 40.77; Dispersed R&D Footprint companies have more than 1.3 sales indexed R&D location.
Strategy& | PwC 35
For the complete study and moreinformation on the annual Strategy& Global Innovation 1000 study
Please visit:http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/innovation1000
For media or other inquiries, please contact: Kiran Chauhan+1 416 890 8695
October 2015
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36October 2015