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Astrobiology Science Strategy for the Search for Life in the Universe
January 18, 2018
Dr. Jill Tarter – Bernard M. Oliver Chair, SETI Institute
THE 21ST CENTURY: THE CENTURY OF BIOLOGY
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THE 21ST CENTURY: THE CENTURY OF BIOLOGY ON EARTH AND BEYOND
Astrobiology Science Strategy for the Search for Life in the Universe
January 18, 2018
Dr. Jill Tarter – Bernard M. Oliver Chair, SETI Institute
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Life Beyond Earth • Discover it
• In situ biomarkers
• Artifacts in the solar system
• Remote biosignatures
Life Beyond Earth
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Life Beyond Earth • Discover it
• In situ biomarkers
• Artifacts in the solar system
• Remote biosignatures
• Detect its work product • Technosignatures
• Serendipitous observations
Life Beyond Earth
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Life Beyond Earth • Discover it
• In situ biomarkers
• Artifacts in the solar system
• Remote biosignatures
• Detect its work product • Technosignatures
• Serendipitous observations
• Export it • Moon, Mars, Asteroids
• Breakthrough StarShot, 100 Year Starship Study, Icarus
Life Beyond Earth
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We Need To Watch Our Language
• SETI ≠ The Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence can’t define Intelligence uses technology as a proxy for intelligence
• SETI == searching for evidence of somebody else’s technology
• pragmatic definition of technology == ability to deliberately modify an environment in ways that can be sensed over interstellar/interplanetary distances (including unintended consequences)
• SETI ≠ CETI --- the search precedes the decoding
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SETI: A SEARCH FOR TECHNOSIGNATURES
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Charge to This SSB Committee • Identify the most promising key research goals in the
field of the search for signs of life in which progress is likely in the next 20 years;
• Discuss which of the key goals could be addressed by U.S. and international space missions and ground telescopes in operation or in development;
• Discuss how to expand partnerships (interagency, international and public/private) in furthering the study of life's origin, evolution, distribution, and future in the universe;
• Make recommendations for advancing the research, obtaining the measurements, and realizing NASA’s goal to search for signs of life in the universe
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What Do Technologies Do? • Harvest energy and do work with different levels of
efficiency
• What kind of energy? • Chemical combustion and fermentation • Wind, Solar, Wave • Geothermal • Nuclear • ???
• What kind of work? • Generate, transfer, store information • Construction (local, regional, global, solar system(s) ) • Transportation • Resource extraction • Manufacturing / replication • Maintain homeostasis
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What Do Technologies Do?
• Harvest energy and do work with different levels of efficiency
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1962 Clarke’s three laws 1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that
something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
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Karl Schroeder’s third law
1. ...
2. …
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from nature.
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Natural vs. Engineered To Be Natural
• Unexpected albedo or ‘glint’
• Surface temperature is ‘wrong’
• Lack of extreme weather
• Latitudinal homogeneity
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Natural vs. Engineered To Be Natural
• Unexpected albedo or ‘glint’
• Surface temperature is ‘wrong’
• Lack of extreme weather
• Latitudinal homogeneity
• Multiple identical planets
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Terraformed TRAPPIST-1
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Natural vs. Engineered To Be Natural
• Stellar modifications
• Unexpected albedo or ‘glint’
• Surface temperature is ‘wrong’
• Lack of extreme weather
• Latitudinal homogeneity
• Multiple identical planets
• Clusters of habitable worlds
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Nick Bostrom’s third law*
1. ...
2. …
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from the goal programmed into an insufficiently constrained and boxed superintelligent singleton.
* I’m putting words in his mouth. He is a philosopher writing about Generalized AI
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Natural vs. Engineered By Machines
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Where should we look for GAIs? Matrioshka Brains around host star (Thermal IR excess and signals between other brains)
Sources of great energy BHs and Neutron Stars (pulsar planets?)
Star StarShot, Dragonfly, Starwisp – in our own SS (Lagrange points, asteroids?)
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What Do Technologies Do?
• Harvest energy and do work with different levels of efficiency
• What kind of energy? • Chemical combustion and fermentation
• Wind, Solar, Wave
• Geothermal
• Nuclear
• ???
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Observable Consequences for Different Energy Sources • Chemical combustion - JWST could detect CF4, and
CCl3F in ~2 days of observing time (assuming 10 X Earth) (Lin, Abad & Loeb, 2014)
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Observable Consequences for Different Energy Sources • Nuclear
• Fissile waste disposal into host star would produce enhancement of rare Earth elements e.g. praseodymium (Whitmire and Wright 1980)
Przybylski's Star HD101065
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Observable Consequences for Different Energy Sources • Nuclear
• Fissile waste disposal into host star would produce enhancement of rare Earth elements e.g. praseodymium (Whitmire and Wright 1980)
• Fusion – Tritium leakage. 12.6 year half life. Analog to 21cm HI hyperfine transitions at 1516 MHz. Emission near a star would be intriguing. (Valdes and Freitas, 1986)
Przybylski's Star HD101065
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What Do Technologies Do? • Harvest energy and do work with different levels of
efficiency
• What kind of energy? • Chemical combustion and fermentation • Wind, Solar, Wave • Geothermal • Nuclear • ???
• What kind of work? • Generate, store, transfer information • Construction (local, regional, global, solar system(s) ) • Transportation • Resource extraction • Manufacturing / replication • Maintain homeostasis
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Observable Consequences of Work • Generate, Store Information: Computronium,
Matrioshka Brains, paperclips or some other transformation of all material (Bostrom 2014, Musk 2016 …)
HEAT
• Construction: Dyson Swarms/ Megastructures/ Disappearing Stars (Villarroel, Imaz, Berstet, 2016), Star-tickling and the Galactic Internet (Learned, Kudritzki,
Pakvasa & Zee, 2008)
MODS STAR SPECTRUM (FREQUENCY & TIME)
• Manufacturing/replication: grey goo (Drexler, 1986) LACK OF DIVERSITY
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Observable Consequences of Work • Generate, Store Information: Computronium,
Matrioshka Brains, paperclips or some other transformation of all material (Bostrom 2014, Musk 2016 …)
HEAT
• Construction: Dyson Swarms/ Megastructures/ Disappearing Stars (Villarroel, Imaz, Berstet, 2016), Star-tickling and the Galactic Internet (Learned, Kudritzki, Pakvasa & Zee, 2008)
MODS STAR SPECTRUM (FREQUENCY & TIME)
• Manufacturing/replication: grey goo (Drexler, 1986) LACK OF DIVERSITY • Probes made by molecular
manufacturing could mean Kordylewski Clouds are real made of diamondoid nanobots (Freitas, 2017)
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Observable Consequences of Work • Transportation:
• Relativistic ‘Boldly Going’ (Corbet, 1999)
Gamma-ray Bursts
Accelerations of photon rockets?
Asteroid mining
Ida &
Dactyl • Slow generational ships (Papagiannis, 1982)
• Breakthrough Starshot @.2c
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FTL Travel
Millis and Davis, “Warp Drives & Wormholes, Exploiting the Boundaries of Physics (2013)
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Observable Consequences of Work • Transfer Information
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Multi-Messenger Universe • Carriers of information over vast distances
• photons – EM waves • particles of matter
neutral or charged massless or massive negative energy tachyons?
• entangled pairs • gravitational waves • FTL travel via wormholes or warp drives
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Multi-Messenger Universe • Carriers of information over vast distances
• photons – EM waves • particles of matter
neutral or charged massless or massive negative energy tachyons?
• entangled pairs • gravitational waves • FTL travel via wormholes or warp drives
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NIROSETI
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Credit: Peter Backus
98 s
ec
700 Hz
Radio: Natural vs. Engineered
Frequency Tim
e
MRO
MEX
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The EM Cosmic Haystack Is Huge
Nine Dimensional
• 3 – space
• 1 – time
• 2 – polarizations
• 1 – frequency
• 1 – modulation scheme
• 1 – sensitivity
9
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The EM Cosmic Haystack Is Huge
Nine Dimensional
• 3 – space
• 1 – time
• 2 – polarizations
• 1 – frequency
• 1 – modulation scheme
• 1 – sensitivity
9
1011 stars
(persistent) ~ L/1010 yr geometric mean 100<L< 3x109
2
1010 Hz + 3x1014 Hz
100x100 =104 trials
Detect AO radar or 1015 W laser at galactic center
To date we have searched about 10-22 of 9-D volume for EM signals
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Earth’s oceans = 1.4 billion km3
= 5.9 x 1021 glasses
50+ YEARS OF SETI TO DATE
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Opportunities Now For Large Improvement
• New and faster instrumentation
• Beginning to have access to the transient sky
• AI and neural networks are beginning to allow data to call attention to signals that are present, rather than just looking for pre-defined artifacts
• Opportunities for data mining and commensal observing are increasing.
• Graduate and undergraduate curricula now available
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The ATA-42
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THE ATA-42
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20,000 RED DWARF SURVEY
Geosynchronous Belt
Kepler Field
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BREAKTHROUGH LISTEN
$100 M OVER 10 YEARS FROM YURI MILNER
1-10 GHz 1Million Stars 100 Galaxies Ecliptic Plane Survey Exotica
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BREAKTHROUGH LISTEN
$100 M OVER 10 YEARS FROM YURI MILNER
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BREAKTHROUGH LISTEN
$100 M OVER 10 YEARS FROM YURI MILNER
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BREAKTHROUGH LISTEN
$100 M OVER 10 YEARS FROM YURI MILNER
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SETI@home
ALFA at Arecibo Astropulse & Other signals
LOFAR Low Frequency Transients
SETI Italia
MORE SETI TODAY
Project Dorothy 15 Countries
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OSETI
Harvard – Sky Survey
Keck HIRES
K II K III WISE
Ĝ
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Potential OSETI ‘Telescopes’
Veritas (commensal or datamining)
Heliostat at night
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Breakthrough Watch
Instrument upgrades to VISIR on VLT Alpha Centauri A & B image planets w. Rp~2R⌖ Targets for Breakthrough Listen & Starshot
Olivier Guyon & Markus Kasper
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OSS
MANY UNKNOWNS - BUT COMPELLING REASONS TO SEARCH
ALL-SKY, ALL-THE-TIME, AT ALL FREQUENCIES
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Star 1000 deg2 0.1 deg2
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THE FUTURE
JWST and then ???
IMAGING / BIOSIGNATURES LUVOIR
HabEx
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THE FUTURE
Colossus SETI/OSETI
Laser SETI
SKA FAST
TMT
E-ELT
LSST
GMT
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On Dealing With A Discovery
• Confirm at Discovery Site or with team • Get Independent confirmation if possible (quietly) • Submit template paper • Calculate a Rio Scale 2.0* preliminary rating • Send IAU Telegram
• All observatories can then attempt other observations • Continuous time monitoring (if appropriate) • Have thus educated cadre of local experts for media
• Tell the world
*The Rio scale assigns a score to claimed detections of technosignatures to characterise their significance in a manner easily digestible by the general public. Depends on nature of evidence and credibility of detection
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Technosignatures Raise Concept of Longevity
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≈
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λ (t) x
Balbi, A. (2017) The Impact of the Temporal Distribution of Communicating Civilizations on their Detectability. Submitted to Astrobiology.
Nathalie Cabrol has suggested that λ (t) is an excellent opportunity for forming a Virtual, cross-disciplinary Institute to refine search strategy for technosignatures.
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Earthrise/ William Anders/ Apollo 8
On a finite world, a cosmic perspective isn’t a luxury; it is a necessity.
Caleb Scharf (2014)
Dome View