The Arab Spring
IAFS 1000
Outline
• Tunisian Trigger• Misconception re Status Quo Ante• Spread of Arab Spring• Role of Social Media• Implications for Syria• Conclusions
Origins• 17 Dec 2010:
Mohammed Bouazizi, Tunisian fruit-seller, self-immolated to protest abuse
• Protests spread throughout Tunisia
• 14 Jan 2011: President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali forced into exile
Tunisian Themes
• Focus on economic issues• Mass uprisings spontaneous• Young people central to protests• Uprising successful in driving Ben Ali
from office
Misconceptions aboutPre-Rising Status Quo
• Autocrats’ tight control of military> varied widely from state to state
• Autocrats’ ability to use oil money to buy off disgruntled citizens
> yes, except in Libya• Weakness of Pan-Arabism
> leaderless revolts won broad Arab following
Repercussions (as of July 2012)
Spread of Unrest
• Egypt (Jan-Feb 2011): Mubarak handed power to military–Muhammad Morsi (Muslim Bros) to
power• Yemen (Feb 2011-ongoing): Saleh
handed power over to crony VP al-Hadi• Bahrain (Feb 2011-ongoing): protests put
down by Saudi forces
Spread of Unrest
• Libya (Feb-Oct 2011): Gaddafi killed–Jul 2012: parliamentary elections
• Syria (Mar 2011-ongoing): military response from government–Jul 2011: emergence of Free Syrian
Army (FSA)~ Nov 2011: civil war
Role of Social Media
• Calls to protest on Facebook• Social media a primary news source• Egyptian efforts to limit internet
backfired• Wael Ghonim (Google): “We Are All
Khalid Said”
Social Media
Young Egyptians post videos of events in Tahrir Square, 7 Feb 2011)http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2011/12/25/sunday-review/25YIP_ARABSPRING-4.html
Social Media
http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-07/how-pentagon-program-and-hacker-assisted-revolution
Social Media
Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT
http://npgportraits.si.edu/
Appropriating Well Known Images
Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT
SocialMedia
“We are all Khalid Said”
Social Media
Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT
Social Media
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/translated-egyptian-protest-signs
Antigovernment protesters in Bahrain’s Pearl Square Feb. 20.
Social Media
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2011/12/25/sunday-review/25YIP_ARABSPRING-8.html
“Occupy Yemen”
“Occupy Bahrain”
Social Media Challenges
• Anonymity– “Gay Girl in Damascus” hoax
• Social media dominated by US private companies–Result of clash of business or national
interests?
Arab Spring’s Impact on Syria• Military conflict• Entire country
disintegrating• Assad’s Alawite
regime supported by China, Russia, and especially Iran
> hope to preserve “Shiite Crescent”?
new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2012/03/making-sense-of-arab-spring-7-syria-and.html
Arab Spring’s Impact on Syria
• Assad opposed by US, Saudi Arabia• Possible proxy war?• Syria at heart of multiple conflicts:–Arab-Israel–Saudi-Iran–US-Russia–Hezbolah-Israel
Conclusions
• Complicated events, varying results• Arab Spring not over yet, esp. in Syria• US relations with new Islamist
governments?• Haytham Bahoora: watch for ongoing
conflicts to be coopted by a range of interests for their own purposes