The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze The August 9, 2001 Lake Breeze Severe Weather Event Across New Severe Weather Event Across New
York and Western New EnglandYork and Western New England
Thomas A. WasulaThomas A. Wasula
NOAA/NWS WFO at AlbanyNOAA/NWS WFO at Albany
MotivationMotivation
CSTAR II ProjectCSTAR II Project– Northeast Warm Season Severe WeatherNortheast Warm Season Severe Weather– Identify the role terrain features and land/water Identify the role terrain features and land/water
boundaries (i.e. Great Lakes, Long Island Sound, boundaries (i.e. Great Lakes, Long Island Sound, Chesapeake Bay, etc.) have on convective Chesapeake Bay, etc.) have on convective development and evolutiondevelopment and evolution
– Several case studies will analyzed and a climatology Several case studies will analyzed and a climatology will attempt to be developedwill attempt to be developed
– Mesoscale datasets (observational and model)Mesoscale datasets (observational and model)
Contributors to CSTAR II ProjectContributors to CSTAR II Project
Thomas Niziol, (MIC) WFO at BuffaloThomas Niziol, (MIC) WFO at Buffalo Bob LaPlante, (SOO) WFO at ClevelandBob LaPlante, (SOO) WFO at Cleveland Steven Zubrick, (SOO) WFO at SterlingSteven Zubrick, (SOO) WFO at Sterling Dr. Lance Bosart, University at AlbanyDr. Lance Bosart, University at Albany Dr. Daniel Keyer, University at AlbanyDr. Daniel Keyer, University at Albany Warren Snyder, (SOO) WFO at Albany Warren Snyder, (SOO) WFO at Albany
DataData
Surface and Upper Air Data (SPC)Surface and Upper Air Data (SPC) Soundings from SPC archiveSoundings from SPC archive 40-km RUC, 80 km ETA grids40-km RUC, 80 km ETA grids Satellite imagery Satellite imagery Radar data (High resolution KENX Radar data (High resolution KENX
Archive Level IV)Archive Level IV)
Background Background August 9, 2001 EventAugust 9, 2001 Event
A hot and very humid air mass was in place over A hot and very humid air mass was in place over NY and New EnglandNY and New England
Surface temps ranging from 32Surface temps ranging from 32˚C˚C to 37 to 37˚C˚C (Syracuse high temp of 100(Syracuse high temp of 100˚F <ASOS>)˚F <ASOS>)
Surface dewpoints 20-25˚C coupled with large Surface dewpoints 20-25˚C coupled with large values of surface based CAPE (exceeding 2000 values of surface based CAPE (exceeding 2000 J/kg)J/kg)
Numerous reports of straight line wind damage (60 Numerous reports of straight line wind damage (60 to 80 mph) in the Mohawk Valley and hail to the to 80 mph) in the Mohawk Valley and hail to the size of hen eggs (2 inches or 5.1 cm)size of hen eggs (2 inches or 5.1 cm)
Severe Weather ReportsSevere Weather Reports
Storm Reports across NortheastStorm Reports across Northeast
NY-VT-NH-ME
• 21 Wind Reports
• 2 Hail Reports
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 500 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 500 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs
www.spc.noaa.gov
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 850 hPa Raob Heights, 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 850 hPa Raob Heights, Temps, Dewpoints and IsotachsTemps, Dewpoints and Isotachs
www.spc.noaa.gov
www.spc.noaa.gov
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 250 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 250 hPa Raob Heights, Temps and Isotachs
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC ALB Sounding9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC ALB Sounding
www.spc.noaa.gov
9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC BUF Sounding9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC BUF Sounding
www.spc.noaa.gov
10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC BUF Sounding10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC BUF Sounding
www.spc.noaa.gov
10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC ALB Sounding10 AUG 2001/0000 UTC ALB Sounding
www.spc.noaa.gov
Lake Ontario SST’sLake Ontario SST’s
http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/
SPC1300 UTC and 1630 UTC DAY 1SPC1300 UTC and 1630 UTC DAY 1
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis
MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed
500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis
250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded
850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K)
ETA: 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC Initial Analysis
500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x10-10 s-1) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines
250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hr and 12-hr Forecasts for
1800 UTC and 0000 UTC
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hour Forecast for 18 UTC
MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed
500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 6-hour Forecast for 18 UTC
250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded
850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K)
ETA: 9 AUG 2001/1200 UTC 6- hr forecast for 1800 UTC
700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent
850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 12-hour Forecast for 00 UTC
MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed
500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded
ETA: 9 August 2001/1200 UTC 12-hour Forecast for 0000 UTC
250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded
850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, and Theta-e (K) dashed and shaded (every 5K)
1500 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis1500 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis
1745 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite1745 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite
1800 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis1800 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis
1845 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite1845 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite
2215 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite2215 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Visible Satellite
40 km RUC Analyses40 km RUC Analyses
9 AUG 2001/1500-2200 UTC9 AUG 2001/1500-2200 UTC
RUC: 9 August 2001/1500 UTC Analysis
2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)
2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/1600 UTC Analysis
2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)
2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/1700 UTC Analysis
2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)
2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/1800 UTC Analysis
2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)
2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/1800 UTC Analysis
MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness (dam)
Pressure tendency (mb/hour)
RUC: 9 August 2001/1900 UTC Analysis
2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)
2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/2000 UTC Analysis
2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)
2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
RUC: 9 August 2001/2100 UTC Analysis
2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)
2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
2100 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis2100 UTC 9 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis
AUG 9 2001 2100 UTC Surface Analysis with Radar and Satellite
www.unisys.com
RUC: 9 August 2001/2200 UTC Analysis
2-meter Temps (˚C) Solid lines shaded 32˚C (every 2)and greater and 10 meter winds (knots)
2-meter Dewpoints (˚C) and 10 meter winds (knots)
0000 UTC 10 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis0000 UTC 10 AUG 2001 Surface Analysis
KENX Radar Analysis Highlights of the KENX Radar Analysis Highlights of the Severe Weather Event across Severe Weather Event across
New York and Western New EnglandNew York and Western New England
1958 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity
2100 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity
2142 UTC KENX VIL Product
2141 UTC KENX Comp Ref X-Section
Herkimer Co. Storm
2146 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM and MESO Product
2156 UTC KENX COMP REF
2156 UTC KENX Echo Tops
2156 UTC KENX VIL Product
2156 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity
2156 UTC KENX Comp Ref X-Section
Herkimer Co. Storm
2202 UTC KENX VIL Product
VIL=80 kg/m^2
2212 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM and MESO Product
2258 UTC KENX 0.5° Base REF
2258 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity
0000 UTC KENX 0.5° Base REF
2354 UTC KENX VWP
0057 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity
Preliminary ResultsPreliminary Results
Lake breeze boundary from Lake Ontario sparked Lake breeze boundary from Lake Ontario sparked a cluster of well-organized severe thunderstorms, a cluster of well-organized severe thunderstorms, some of which were supercellular (some of which were supercellular (marginal shearmarginal shear))
Boundary interacted with a hot, humid and Boundary interacted with a hot, humid and unstable air mass and continued over a large areaunstable air mass and continued over a large area
850 hPa theta-e values advected into central and 850 hPa theta-e values advected into central and eastern NY in excess of 350Keastern NY in excess of 350K
Surface based CAPE values well in excess of Surface based CAPE values well in excess of 2000 J/kg (as high as possibly 5000 J/kg) provided 2000 J/kg (as high as possibly 5000 J/kg) provided plenty instability and surface dewpoints in excess plenty instability and surface dewpoints in excess of 21of 21°C°C an incredible amount of moisture an incredible amount of moisture
Future WorkFuture Work
To further explore mesoscale observational To further explore mesoscale observational and model data (10-km ETA and 20-km and model data (10-km ETA and 20-km RUC)RUC)
Create cross-sections of the evolution and Create cross-sections of the evolution and movement of the lake breeze boundarymovement of the lake breeze boundary
To compare this case with other possible To compare this case with other possible Lake Ontario and Lake Erie casesLake Ontario and Lake Erie cases