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THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATION
African Futures and DriversMore Important or More Impoverished?
Greg Mills
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Six DriversPeople
Growth and Differentiation
Democracy and Conflict
Resources
Food
Competitiveness and Technology
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DRIVER ONE: People
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4
SSA Population: 1950-2050
19501960
19701980
19902000
20102020
20302040
20500
0.5
1
1.5
2
1.4 Billion in 2025
(Bill
ions
)
Source: United Nations
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Some facts worth pondering … - Between 1950 and 2050, Asia’s population will have
grown by a factor of 3.7. Africa’s population, from 2000 to 2100, will grow by a factor of 5.18.
- Growth rates are driven by lifespan increases and birth-rates (average is 4.9 children per woman 2005-2010).
- Eg. Tanzania: 45 million people today; 2100, projected 276 million. Nigeria: 160m today, one billion by 2100.
- Just 56 percent of Africans are at working-age. Dependency ratios will improve radically.
- A demographic dividend is possible.
- One in four young people will, by 2025, be from SSA.
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6
The Urbanization Phenomenon
Source: United Nations
1950 1975 2000 2025 20500
0.5
1
1.5
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Total Population % Urban
Billi
ions
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19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
African Per Capita Income, Constant (2000) US$
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8
UPSIDE DOWNSIDE
PEACE DIVIDEND RISING INEQUALITY
BETTER GOVERNANCE SMALL MIDDLE-CLASS
POVERTY DOWN LOW SAVINGS
DIFFERENTIATION POOR INFRASTRUCTURE
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DRIVER TWO:Growth & Differentiation
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Much has been achieved –- 40+ democracies- Range of donors and allies- Governance improved - Growth over 5%- More honest inward scrutiny- Commodities revival …
Differentiation important phenomenon
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Feb-0
2
Jul-0
2
Dec-0
2
May
-03
Oct-0
3
Mar
-04
Aug-0
4
Jan-
05
Jun-
05
Nov-0
5
Apr-0
6
Sep-0
6
Feb-0
7
Jul-0
7
Dec-0
7
May
-08
Oct-0
8
Mar
-09
Aug-0
9
Jan-
10
Jun-
10
Nov-1
0
Apr-1
1
Sep-1
1
Feb-1
20
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
African Exports Track Commodity Prices
Africa total exports (USD milion)Commodity prices (CRB, 1967=100, Right scale))
70+% African exports still oil & other minerals
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DRIVER THREE:Democracy & Conflict
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1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
5
10
15
20
25 Sub-Saharan African Conflicts
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DRIVER FOUR: Food
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‘A hungry man is an angry
man’.
Raila Odinga
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Angola Ethiopia Niger
Benin Gabon Nigeria
Botswana Gambia Sao Tome and Principe
Burkina Faso Ghana Senegal
Burundi Guinea Seychelles
Cameroon Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone
Cape Verde Kenya Somalia
Central African Republic Lesotho South Africa
Chad Liberia Sudan
Comoros Madagascar Swaziland
Congo, Dem Republic of Malawi Tanzania, United Rep of
Congo, Republic of Mali Togo
Côte d’Ivoire Mauritania Uganda
Djibouti Mauritius Zambia
Equatorial Guinea Mozambique Zimbabwe
Eritrea Namibia
Africa’s net food importers
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Angola Ethiopia Niger
Benin Gabon Nigeria
Botswana Gambia Sao Tome and Principe
Burkina Faso Ghana Senegal
Burundi Guinea Seychelles
Cameroon Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone
Cape Verde Kenya Somalia
Central African Republic Lesotho South Africa
Chad Liberia Sudan
Comoros Madagascar Swaziland
Congo, Dem Republic of Malawi Tanzania, United Rep of
Congo, Republic of Mali Togo
Côte d’Ivoire Mauritania Uganda
Djibouti Mauritius Zambia
Equatorial Guinea Mozambique Zimbabwe
Eritrea Namibia
Africa’s net food importers: 39 of 49
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000Cereal Yields (Kg/Ha) in Developing Countries
Sub- Saharan Africa
East Asia & Pacific
Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East & North Africa
South Asia
1961 2005
Just 20% of Africa’s 400m ha arable land currently cultivated
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22
Thank you very much