The Canadian
Retail Real Estate Market
Presented to:
2012 Real Estate Forum
Presented by John G. Crombie
National Retail Director Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
416-756-5448
Retail Real Estate
Canadian Retail Market – Basic Facts
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Retail in Canada
Basic Facts!
Retail Sales in Canada
In 2011, retailers sold an estimated $456.3 billion worth of goods and services.
Record high sales of Food & Beverage in 2011 with $104.3 billion.
Employment
Retail sector is Canada’s largest employer. 12.5% of Canadian jobs
Retail Stores in Canada
• 220,000 retail establishments
• 2,724 shopping centres (72 super regional) – 505 million SF
(average size Shopping Centre – 186,000 SF)
• 487 power centres - 162 million SF
(average size Power centre – 333,000 SF)
Top 100 Retailers in Canada control over 70% market share
<50% of Canada’s Leading Retailers are Foreign Owned & Operated (largely US)
Top 5 Foreign Owned Retailers in Canada
• Wal-Mart, Costco, Safeway, NRDC Equity Partners (HBC) & Home Depot
• Controls 19% of total retail sales (1,423 stores)
Retail Real Estate
Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales
- Canada & US
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Canadian Consumer Confidence
Three Year Trend
Source: J.C. Williams
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100O
ct-
09
No
v-0
9
De
c-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Feb
-10
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
May-1
0
Ju
n-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct-
10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Feb
-11
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Jul-11
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Sep-1
2
Con
fide
nce
In
de
x (
20
02
=1
00
)
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Canada vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Ja
n-0
5
Apr-0
5
Ju
l-05
Oct. 0
5
Ja
n. 0
6
Ap
r. 06
Ju
l. 06
Oct. 0
6
Ja
n. 0
7
Ap
r. 07
Ju
l. 07
Oct. 0
7
Ja
n. 0
8
Ap
r. 08
Jul. 0
8
Oct. 0
8
Ja
n. 0
9
Ap
r. 09
Ju
l. 09
Oct. 0
9
Ja
n. 1
0
Ap
r. 10
Ju
l. 10
Oct. 1
0
Ja
n. 1
1
Ap
r. 11
Ju
l. 11
Oct. 1
1
Ja
n. 1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Con
su
me
r C
on
fide
nce
(20
02
=1
00
) Canada
U.S.
Source: J.C. Williams/ICSC
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Canadian Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Statistics Canada
$30
$31
$32
$33
$34
$35
$36
$37
$38
$39
$40
July
Janu
ary
July
Janu
ary
July
Janu
ary
July
Janu
ary
July
Janu
ary
July
(bill
ion
s)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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Canadian Retail Sales Geography - 2011
92% of sales in Western & Central Canada
Source: Statistics Canada,
Western Canada (34.4%)
Northern Canada (0.4%)
Eastern Canada (7.5%)
Quebec (22.4%)
Ontario (35.4%)
Alberta = 14.1%
British Columbia = 13.1%
Manitoba = 3.6%
Saskatchewan = 3.6%
Yukon = 0.1%
NW Territories = 0.2%
Nunavut = 0.1%
Nfld & Labrador = 1.7%
PEI = 0.4%
Nova Scotia = 2.9%
New Brunswick = 2.4%
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Canadian Retail Sales by Province – August 2011 2012
Year Over Year % Change
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
BritishColumbia
Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec AtlanticCanada
Source: J.C. Williams
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Retail Sales Productivity – Canadian Malls
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: ICSC Research
Approximately $580 PSF
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Retail Sales Productivity – U.S. Malls
$320
$340
$360
$380
$400
$420
$440
$460
$480
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: ICSC Research
Approximately $440 PSF
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Recent Arrivals or Expressing Interest in Canada
American Retailers
European Retailers
Source: Cushman & Wakefield 2012
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Foreign Arrivals in Canada 1999 2011
Source: Ryerson University CSCA
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Canadian Retail Space – Square Feet Per Person
14.1
25.1
27.9
22.4
14.7
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Toronto Montreal CanadianAverage
Square
Feet/C
apita
Source: Ryerson University CSCA
Shopping Centres & Big Box Stores (excludes street front)
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Retail Inventory by Age
Toronto & Ontario
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Toronto Ontario
Source: Cushman & Wakefield 2012
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Technology Affecting Our Industry
Omni-Channel Strategies
Evolving multi-channel
dynamics increase the
importance of a
cohesive omni-channel
strategy
QR CODE-DRIVEN VIRTUAL
SUPERMARKETS
(South Korea Subway Stations)
BRICK & MORTAR MOBILE
AMAZON.COM STORE
BRICK &
MORTAR
INTERNET
POP-UP STORE
BRICK &
MORTAR
SOCIAL MEDIA
Retail Real Estate
Rental Rates, Vacancy Rates
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National Retail
Rental Rates 2010 vs. 2011/12
Retail Product 2010 Average Net Rent
($/sq.ft.)
2011/12 Average Net Rent
($/sq.ft.)
CRU (New) $22-$28 $24-$30
Big Box (New) $16-$22 $16-$24
Pads (New) $30-$45 $32-$50
Street Front $25-$100 $30-$120
Source: Cushman & Wakefield 2012
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High Street Rental Rates
2011 vs. 2012 (Street Level)
City Submarket 2011 Average Net
Rent ($/sq.ft.)
2012 Average Net Rent
($/sq.ft.)
Vancouver Robson Street $240 $220
Calgary 17th Avenue SW $45 $50
Edmonton Whyte Avenue $40 $45
Montreal Saint-Catherine West (street
level) $160 $180
Ottawa Sussex Drive $50 $50
Toronto Bloor Street $315 $320
Toronto Queen Street $100 $100
Ottawa Sussex Drive $50 $50
Montreal Saint-Catherine West (street
level) $160 $180
Source: Cushman & Wakefield 2012
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Canadian Retail Vacancy Rate
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Global Real Estate Trends. Scotiabank Group, Global Economic Research (2011)
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Retail Vacancy Rates – Street Front
2008 2011
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Toronto Ottawa
2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Cushman & Wakefield 2012
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Retail Vacancy Rates by Shopping Centre Type
2008 2011
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011
Power Centre Super Regional Regional Community Neighbourhood Strip
Average
Source: Cushman & Wakefield 2012
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This report contains information available to the public and has been relied upon by
Cushman & Wakefield on the basis that it is accurate and complete. Cushman &
Wakefield accepts no responsibility if this should prove not to be the case. No warranty
or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions,
change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any
special listing conditions imposed by our principals.
Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 2012