THE CHATHE CHA RACTERISATION RACTERISATION OF A RIVER BASIN DISTRICTOF A RIVER BASIN DISTRICT
Case study on the construction
of the baseline scenarioInspired from
the Oise case (F)
Most elements picked from "Réalisation de scénarios de référence sur le bassin de l'Oise et de l'Aisne",
Agence de l'eau Seine-Normandie, 2002
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
Only mentioned in the directive annex III: one aspect of the 2004
characterisation What role for the baseline scenario?
forecast what would happen in a given river basin district without WFD
basis of risk of non-compliance analysis feeds economic analysis
BASELINE SCENARIO UNDER WFD
Most elements come from WATECO
Guidance2/11
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
FLOW CHART OF THE PROCEDURE FOR CONSTRUCTING BASELINE
SCENARIO
3/11
Main steps
WFD procedure
Goal
Characterisation
- Description of the district
- Economic analysis of water uses /
services- Recovery of costs- Baseline scenario- Identification of
potential gaps
Monitoring programm
e
Management plan
Good Ecological Status
2004
2006
2009
2015
Assess current trends in trend variables
Project certain changes in water policy variables
Derive one/several realistic business as usual scenarios
Integrate changes in critical uncertainties (optional)
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
BASELINE SCENARIO IN PRACTICE
Sourc
e:
Min
istr
y o
f th
e e
nvir
onm
ent,
Québ
ec,
Canad
a
1995 2005 2015
4/11
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
PRESENTATION OF THE RIVER BASIN
Physical description17 000 km²2 400 km of streams with 2
main rivers (A and B)14 sub-sectors1,8 M inhabitants
5/11
Water related concerns High diffuse pollution from agricultural runoff High urban water intensity Dense industrial concentration Poor water quality in River A and in small
tributaries
River A
River B
River basin
sub-sectors
Goal:
forecast water
status
in 2015
Source of original map: Agence de l'Eau Seine-Normandie
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
THE METHODOLOGY APPLIED
Con
tin
uou
s in
volv
em
en
tof
stake
hold
ers
Appraisal of water status in
2015
Experts' judgements
Hydrological model to simulate impact of discharges
Statistical forecasts
6/11
Determination of trends until
2015
from evolution of activities… …to evolution of discharges
E.g. +50 000 inhabitants +3 new industries ~+58 000 EH to be treated
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
1990-99: +2,7% 1,8 million inhabitants in
1999 higher increase close to
major urban areas and along rivers A & B
Trend 1988-00: -8% livestock
Present annual discharges: organic matters: 1900t reduced nitrogen: 250t phosphorus: 50t
ASSESS CURRENT TRENDS IN TREND VARIABLES
Do not rely too much on past projections:it may lead to false projections
Disaggregated approach might be preferable. E.g. for demand forecasting
7/11
Demography Rural discharges
individual stormwater
Urban discharges collective stormwater
Agricultural discharges Industrial discharges
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
PROJECT CERTAIN CHANGES IN WATER POLICY VARIABLES
E.G. URBAN DISCHARGES
8/11
Hypothesis: full implementation of
urban wastewater directive (91/271/EEC)
• Actions 306 000 more inhabitants con-
nected to pipes rehabilitation of pipes creation, extension,
improvement of 270 existing treatment plants (2,175M EH)
improvement of stormwater col-lection
• Impacts better collection rate
more effluents to treat increased treatment
performances higher depollution rate
Connected industry
340
- 12%
HousingActivities
1 147
140
Urban wastewatertreatment plant
Charge : 1 487Depollution: 1 347
Urban soils
Charge: 71Depollution: 7
71
13 64 158
Stormwater treatment
Discharges of organic matters from urban origins: projection in
2015
Figures: x1000 EHSource of original map: Agence de l'Eau Seine-Normandie
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
Hypothesis: full implementation of urban wastewater directive
(91/271/EEC)
• Impacts69 M€/yr if actions are
phased between 2000 and 2015
185 M€/yr if directive deadline (2005) is implemented
101 M€/yr if implementation is "postponed" until 2010
Actions Cost
306 000 more inhabitantsconnected to pipes
610 M€
rehabilitation of pipes 75 M€
creation, extension, improvementof 270 existing treatment plants
323 M€
improvement of stormwatercollection
110 M€
Total estimated costs 1 113 M€
• Estimation of costs
EXAMPLE OF PROJECTION OF CERTAIN CHANGES
IN WATER POLICY VARIABLES: APPLICATION TO URBAN DISCHARGES
Figures to be
compared with
actual
investment: 46
M€ in 2000
9/11
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
HYPOTHESIS: +4% average annual rainfall i.e. +18-44mm/year
CONSEQUENCES
• cope with stormwater runoff collection and treatment disposal
• manage severe floods threats creation of 1 storage dam development of wetlands
and natural protections
INTEGRATE CHANGES IN CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
E.G. CLIMATE CHANGE
10/11
Impact on the status of water
simulation for 2015 with hydrological model
Source of original map: Agence de l'Eau Seine-Normandie
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
SIMULATION OF WATER STATUS IN 2015
Main statements Comments
Rough estimates of respectiveimpact of policies and main activities
Indications of the respective impactof policies and of main activities
Pre-identification of potential nonconformity with the goal
Consider supplementary measures +costs/benefits
Identification of main factors ofuncertainty (e.g. industry)
Useful further investigations wouldbe relevant
Experts' judgements coherent withmodel simulation
Relevant easy-to-use method to geta general overview
11/11
ConformityNon conformity+ improvement
Water status2000-2015
(results with the model)
Source of original map: Agence de l'Eau Seine-Normandie
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
GO FURTHER
Different types of variables to be examined when constructing the business as usual scenario
The role of public participation Data to be gathered in task 1 Recommended approach for task 2 Key issues to examine during task 3 Analysis of the sensibility of the
simulations
Derogation
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
DIFFERENT TYPES OF VARIABLESVariables Example
Trendvariables
Changes in demographic factors. e.g. population growth in specific urban areas
Economic growth and changes in economic activity composition e.g. growth of the relative importance of services
(bank instead of mining industry…) Changes in land planning
e.g. new areas dedicated to specific economic activities,land management in the catchment for reducing erosion
Water policyvariables
Planned investments in the water sector e.g. for developing water services or for restoring the natural en-
vironment/mitigating for damaging caused by given water uses Development of new technologies likely to impact on water use
for industrial production and related pressures.Criticaluncertainties
Changes in social values and policy drivers e.g. globalisation / regionalisation; policies relying on
economics, technology vs. on values and lifestyles Changes in natural conditions
e.g. climate change Changes in non-water sector policies
e.g. changes in agricultural policy or industrial policy thatwill affect economic sectors
Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.115
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
THE ROLE OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION
Task Role of public participation Output
Task 1 System analysis and choice of determinant assumptions In-depth interviews with main stakeholders, experts andinstitutions of the district, aimed at: defining the key variables that determinate the water
system in the district according to the interlocutors; proposing a hierarchy for these variables (more or less
determinant); describing their range of variation
Overview of generaltrends in key variablesShort term projections
Task 2 Scenario building based on task 1 inputs and participationfrom stakeholders, experts, representatives, scientiststhrough working groups, thematic workshops, etc …
Baseline scenariowithout uncertainty
Task 3 Large-scale debate on the proposed scenarios: presentationat various policy levels, large communication, and collectionof opinions from the public. The list of assumptions thatunderlie the scenarios should be delivered as clearly aspossible to allow transparency and possibilities for criticismand reformulating, etc.
Alternative baselinescenarios incorporatinguncertainty
Task 4(optional)
Amendment of scenarios, and quantification refinement:based on previous tasks, derive and calculate the precisesignificance of scenarios for their systems and instruments:investment and subsidising system, pricing, technical actions,policy organisation, etc. Organisation of large-scalepublication and participative discussions.
Exploratory scenarios
Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.129
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
DATA TO BE GATHERED IN TASK 1Action Key points Output
Identify trends inphysical parameters
Map evolution of: trends in water status over the past relevant period
E.g. evolution of pollution and ecological quality
Overview ofgeneral trends inthe hydrologicalsystem in the RBD.
Identify trends insocioeconomicdrivers influencingwater uses and,water services andimpacts
Map evolution of: equipment
E.g. water distribution and sewage, rates ofhouseholds and industries connected to public network
pricingE.g. pricing policies, average prices
usesE.g. hydropower, navigation, angling, etc.and related impactsE.g. power produced, transportation volumes,number of angling people, etc.
Overview ofgeneral trends inwater uses andservices in the RBD.
Identify trends inwater policies andregulations
list past and existing national water policies state the level of compliance with water-related
environmental directives (e.g. habitats directive)and describe past investments and efforts
describe trends in rates ofa. equipment in water distribution treatment and insewage treatment capacities;b. agri-environmental policies implementation;c. industrial compliance.
Overview ofgeneral trends inthe implementationof present waterpolicies andregulations.
Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.117
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
RECOMMENDED APPROACH FOR TASK 2
Action Key points Output
Make assumptionsabout the futuredynamics of trendvariables identifiedin Task 1
determine whether parameters have stabilisedE.g. household connections to public networks, taxlevels
determine the supposed effect of proposed futurepolicy measures on the water statusE.g. new investment programmes, new nationalregulations, already planned institutional changesand public equipment policies such as energy,transportation, etc.: what possible effect on waterquality and availability?
Assumptions on thefuture dynamics oftrends
Make projectionsbased oncertain trends
derive the projected values of the differentparameters for 2015
check the general consistency of the differenttrends, explain the apparent inconsistencies (e.g.how can we explain a forecast of growinginvestments along with a supposed decrease in riverquality? Because of a rise in general pollution flowsout from economic growth)Propose one or several combinations of assumptionson trends
Baseline or businessas- usual projectionsof the RBD in 2015
Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.123
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
KEY ISSUES TO EXAMINE DURING TASK 3
Action Key points Output
Identify changes to theparameters that areuncertain and couldhave significant impactson the water policy
Pay special attention to: increase in magnitude and frequency of uncertain
events (policy and technological shifts,meteorological events such as floods anddroughts occurrence)
possible reactions and feedbacks from theenvironment:- acceleration of water quality improvement dueto enhancing of auto-purification by the waterenvironment;
- apparition of new quality parameters previouslyhidden (again recommended use of modelling)
possible social changes having significant impactson the water system: consumption habits(housing, land planning, …), institutional designof water policy
possible economic changes having significantimpacts on the water system: economic growthcycles, investment flows, employment, economicpolicy, taxing system, etc.
associate and merge analyses of “demand” and of“supply” of water. Baseline scenarios areparticularly necessary for preventing thedissociation of supply policies and demand-sidemanagement, “putting offer and demand in thesame image”.
Alternativebaseline scenarios
Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.127
Scenario
1995 2005 2015
ANALYSIS OF THE SENSIBILITY OF SIMULATIONS
Parameters Confidencein the data used
Uncertainty regardingthe achievement
of the goalVariation of the population high except in case of
structuring projectsglobally weak but locallyhigh
Performance of wastewatertreatment plants
fair low
Present rate ofdischarge of individualtreatment systems
low globally weak but locallyhigh
Industrial activity low high
Industry: rate of depollution fair low
Industry: change ofdepollution process
low low?
Evolution of livestock low high
Rate of discharge ofbreeding in surfacewater
low high
Parameters for which further investigation is needed are indicated in bold characters