The Coming Economic Downturn: How it will affect inventors and what they can do.
Wednesday, 15 Oct 2008Jane Lambert
Topics- The Challenges- The Opportunities- What happened in the 1930s- Top Tips- Questions and Discussion
The Challenges - Sharply reduced demand- Reduced public spending- Reduced credit- Cautious Investment- Rising Costs of Materials and Services- Rising Costs of IP enforcement- Increasing Competition from BRICs States
Sharply Reduced Demand - Inventions are products and processes- Must compete with existing products- Consumers stick with what they know- Businesses less likely to take risk
Reduced Public Spending - Bank Bail Out has to be funded somehow- Inflation and falling markets limit borrowing- Shrinking economy limits taxation- Heavy expenditure cuts the only option- Expect squeeze on Business Link, LEGI etc.
Reduced Credit- Falling asset values will reduce collateral- Banks will become increasingly risk averse- Securitization has earned a bad name- Take time for banks to trust each other- Harder to get export credit
Cautious Investment - Shrinking market will reduce incentive for R & D- Falling profits will reduce funds- Angels and VCs hurt by falling asset values
Rising Costs of Materials- BRICs Economies will continue to grow- Recovery of fuel and commodities prices- Falling Value of sterling against $ and €
Rising Costs of Enforcement- Rising Court Fees- Less scope for “pro bono” and “no win no fee”- Insurers have been hit by financial sclerosis- Probably professional fees will be forced down
Competition from BRICs- Acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China- Coined by Jim O’Neil of Goldman Sachs in 2001- Exports hit by our troubles- Scope for internal growth- Will fuel demand for commodities- Heavy investment in R & D- China likely to overtake USA in 20 years
The Opportunities- Growth of BRICs states- Competitive Manufacturing and Outsourcing- Market for UK Goods- Potential Source of Investment - Opportunities for Licensing in Technology- Brazil, China and India are members of WTO- New Opportunities here: energy, environment etc
What happened Last Time1929 Yo-Yo1930 Frozen Food, Jet Engine, Sellotape1931 Electron Microscope1932 Polaroid and Parking Meter1933 FM Radio and Stereo Recording1934 Cats’ Eyes and Monopoly1935 Nylon, Canned Beer and Radar
What happened Last Time1936 Voice Recognition Systems1937 Photocopying1938 Ballpoint Pens and Instant CoffeeAlso many new industries began to flourish:- motor vehicles- household appliances- cinema and radio
Top Tips for Downturn- Avoid Invention Promoters like the Plague- Try to manufacture or outsource manufacture- Avoid unsolicited approaches to manufacturers- Obtain best professional advice - Members of the IPBA who accept public access work - Members of the IPLA or firms eligible to join - CIPA or ITMA members - PATLib Libraries
Top Tips for Downturn- Identify Income Streams as far ahead as possible- Consider Potential Threats to Income Stream- Consider Possible Counter Measures- Consider appropriate Legal Protection for Income- Seek adequate IP and other Indemnity insurance
Top Tips for Downturn- Network (Inventors’ Clubs, Business Clubs etc)- Internet Networking (Xing, Facebook etc)- Attend relevant Conferences Workshops and Seminars (especially if they are free)- Keep in Touch with IP Yorkshire
Any Questions?Jane LambertNIPCThe Media Centre7 Northumberland StreetHuddersfieldHD1 1RLT +44 (0)870 990 5081E [email protected]
