The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism for the IGAD Region
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• Conflict
• Early
•Warning &
•Response
•Mechanism
C E W A R N
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Need for the Establishment of CEWARN
• 1995: recognition by Member States to address conflicts in the region by revitalizing the IGAD Charter
• 30 potentially threatening inter-communal conflicts by late 1990s
• Proliferation and availability of small arms in the region
• A collapsed state due to internal conflicts (Somalia)
• Recent inter-state war between two Member States
• A great number of endemic violent cross-border pastoral conflicts
• Continued threat of inter-state wars arising from cross-border inter-communal and inter-clan conflicts
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The Process of Establishing CEWARN
• “Khartoum Declaration“ in 2000
• Development of the CEWARN Protocol and methodology
• Opening of the CEWARN Unit in Addis Ababa/Ethiopia, July 2003
• Entry into force of the CEWARN Protocol in August 2003
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CEWARN's Mandate
The CEWARN mandate is:
“to receive and share information concerning potentially violent conflicts as well as their outbreak and escalation in the IGAD region, undertake analysis of the information and develop case scenarios and formulate options for response.”
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Programmatic Focus on Pastoral Conflicts
Though the CEWARN mandate covers all types of conflicts, it was agreed that, as entry point, the Mechanism should start by monitoring cross-border pastoral conflicts, because:
• Over 60% of the region’s land is arid and semi-arid lands inhabited by pastoralists.
• Agreement among MS on the need to address the plight of pastoral communities across borders of the IGAD region.
• Many conflicts in the region are natural resource based.
• The focus on pastoral conflicts is a spring board for building the necessary confidence among MS to address other conflicts through EW and ER.
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The Functions of CEWARN
� Collection of information by Field Monitors based in the Areas of Reporting
� Analysis and verification of information collected using a software Program - the CEWARN Reporter.
� Formulation of best, worst and most likely case scenarios and response options.
� Communication of recommendations on policy and response options to prevent/mitigate pastoral conflicts to decision-makers at the national level through the National Early Warning and Response Units (CEWERUs).
� Promote the exchange of information and collaboration among MS on EW and ER through regional structures like the Committee of Permanent Secretaries (CPS) and Technical Committee on Early Warning (TCEW).
� Creation of linkages and sharing information with other regional and international organizations dealing with EW and ER including the AU-CEWS, ECOWAS-EW, ECCAS, SADC and EAC.
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CEWARN Unit
�Coordination, Monitoring and Quality Control
TCEWTechnical Committee on
Early Warning
IGAD Secretariat
Peace &
Security
Division
Agriculture
&
Environment
Division
Economic
Cooperation
Division
IGAD Council of Ministers
CPS
Committee of Permanent Secretaries
�Policy Decisions at Regional Level
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CEWERU
Conflict Early Warning
and Early Response Unit
(Steering Committees)
�Response Initiatives
NRINational Research Institutes
FM
Field Monitors
�Data Collection in
Areas of Reporting
Local Committees
�Implementation at Local Level
CC
CEWARN Country Coordinator
�Coding and Analysis of Information
�Early Warning Reports
Sub-Regional
Peace Councils
(to be created)
EARLY RESPONSE EARLY WARNING
= structure
in all
IGAD Member
States
Structural
Relation
Flow of
Information
Organizational Structure of the CEWARN Mechanism
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CEWERU/Local committeesbased at national and local levels
in each Member State
NationalResearch Institute
tasked with data collection,coding, analysis at national level
data
data
reports
IGADSecretariat
CEWARNMonitoring at regional level; quality
control in coding and analysis
Committee of PermanentSecretaries
(CPS)
COUNTRY
LEVEL
Technical Committeefor Early Warning
(TCEW)
reports
reports
Regional reports
reports
Information Flow
FM FM FM FM FMInformation collection
REGIONAL
LEVEL
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THE CEWARN UNIT – ADDIS ABABA
• Falls under the Peace and Security Directorate of IGAD
• Serves as the regional coordination office for the Mechanism
• Headed by a Director, 4 professional staff members (+ 2 more)
• Houses the country and regional data reporter system
• Responsible for supervision, coordination and quality control of data collected and analysis produced by CEWARN
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Composition of the National CEWERU’s
The CEWERU Steering Committee comprises both state
and non-state representatives:
�Representatives of the central government, including members of Parliament, provincial administration, police and military.
�Representatives of CSO’s, including religious organizations, elders, academic and research institutions
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Functions of CEWERUs
• Receiving and reviewing reports of analyses received from the NRI.
• Formulating and adopting response strategies to prevent or mitigate pastoral conflicts in the MS.
• Acting as a link between MS and CEWARN.
• Responsible for the establishment and functioning of local committees in the Areas of Reporting.
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The National Research Institute (NRI)
An NRI is an independent academic institute or NGO contracted byCEWARN.
NRI’s are responsible for:
• Recruitment and supervision of CEWARN Country Coordinators and Field Monitors.
• Receiving, coding and analysis of field data as well as timely submission of analyzed reports to the CEWARN Unit and the CEWERU.
The NRI’s in the region are:
Ethiopia:Inter Africa Group (IAG)
Kenya: Africa Peace Forum (APFO)
Uganda: Center for Basic Research (CBR)
Sudan: Peace Research Institute (Univ.Khartoum)
Eritrea: Citizens for peace
Djibouti: Cabinet de Consultant Formation et Ingenierie Sociale (CCFIS)
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Areas of Reporting (AoR’s)
Karamoja and Somali Clusters
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Methodology
Collection of information
• CEWARN collects and analyses information using a software tool - the Reporter.
• The Reporter is fed with both Incident Reports and Situation Reports on a weekly basis.
• Violent incidents recorded include raids, armed clashes, protest demonstrations and other crime like assaults and banditry.
• The information collected is based on a set of 52 behavioral indicators tracking communal relations, civil society activities, economic activities, governance and media,natural disasters and resource use, safety and security and social services.
• In addition to this event data, CEWARN now is in the process of collecting and integrating structural data in the Reporter.
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Welcome
Introduction
Identifying
Reporting
Incident Reports
Situation Reports
Agenda
Conclusion
Quality Control
Incident Reports
Incident Reports
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Welcome
Introduction
Identifying
Reporting
Incident Reports
Situation Reports
Agenda
Conclusion
Quality Control
Situation Reports
Situation Reports
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Violent Incidents
Chart 1. Karamoja Cluster Violent Incident Reports
(Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda combined)
July 2003 - December 2006
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Armed Clashes Protest Demonstrations RaidsOther Crime All Reported Violent Incidents Cross Border
Total No. of Violent Incidents = 1,715
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Human Deaths
Chart 2. Karamoja Cluster Human Deaths
(Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda combined)
July 2003 - December 2006
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330340350360370380390400
July
2003
Septe
mber
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y 200
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arch
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y 200
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ber 2
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ember
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ry 2
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arch
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All Deaths Women & Children
Total no. of human deaths during July 03 – December 2006 = 2,874
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Livestock Losses
Chart 3. Karamoja Cluster Net Livestock Losses
(Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda combined)
July 2003 - December 2006
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
100001100012000130001400015000
July
200
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mbe
r 200
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r 200
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f L
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ss
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Net Livestock Losses (Number killed and stolen minus those recovered)
Total no. of net live stock loss (Livestock Raided-Recovered) during July 03 –December 2006 = 144,513
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CEWARN Outputs
Type of Report Frequency Level
� Alerts Immediately National/Regional
� Situation Briefs As the need arises National/Regional
� Country Updates Every four months National
� Cluster Reports Every four months Regional
� Annual Risk Assessment Annually National/Regional (to be launched)
� Country Baseline Studies For all new areas;and evaluation every 5 years
National
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Experiences in Establishing CEWARN
Achievements
• Most developed data-based regional EW system in Africa
• State of the art field monitoring and data analysis tool
• Documenting extent of violence in the pilot pastoralist areas
• Capacity building in CPMR
• Enhanced confidence and trust between stakeholders
Gaps & Lessons Learnt
• Lack of efficient response component for CEWARN
• Broadening sources of information necessary
• Work of CEWARN remains largely unknown
• Institutional and functional weaknesses
• Absence of comprehensive fundraising plan
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Challenges
• Poor infrastructure and inaccessibility of the areas of coverage
• Inadequate capacity in addressing conflicts
• Lack of information and coordination between the various actors
• Complexity of conflicts in the region
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CEWARN Strategy 2007-2011
CEWARN has developed a 5-year strategic plan with the following focus:
• Strengthen the early response side of the mechanism by fully operationalizing CEWERUs in all IGAD Member States.
• Expand the monitoring and reporting of pastoral and related conflicts in all IGAD Member States.
• Strengthen the institutional and functional capacity of CEWARN.
• Widen sources of information, enhance the information collectionsystem, and strengthen the data analysis capacity of CEWARN.
• Develop a public relations and communication strategy and promote awareness on CEWARN’s work.
• Implement a sustainable long-term funding strategy that will ensure CEWARN’s access to adequate resources to fulfill its mandate.
• Lay the foundation and build the capacity to expand to other types of conflicts.
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CEWARN Rapid Response Fund
Rationale
� To provide CEWARN with the flexibility and rapid response capacity which it requires to be an effective mechanism to address pastoral and related conflicts
� Proposals will come from local or regional peace communities, submitted through the respective CEWERUs.
� Projects to be financed by the Fund should be directly targeted to prevent, de-escalate or resolve pastoral conflicts.
� Decisions will be taken by a Steering Committee (IGAD, CEWARN, Member States, Partners in Development).
� Initiatives to be funded can be of a regional, cross-border, national or of community based nature.
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