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The Delta Project: Past and Future
ASCE Met Section Infrastructure Group Seminar 2009
March 2009
Dr. Jeroen Aerts
www.adaptation.nl
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Content
1. Geographical location
2. History of Delta project
3. Climate Change: New Delta Project
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Content
1. Geographical location
2. History of Delta project
3. Climate Change: New Delta Project
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Rotterdam
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NYC
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R’dam
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-4m / -7m -2m / -4m +15m / -2m +50m / +15m +322m / +50m
Belgium
Germany
North Sea
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Flood 1855
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1938 Hurricane 1953 SW Holland(‘Zeeland’)
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NY 1938 Zeeland 1953
# casualties 600 1800
Max waterlevels ~4-6m ~4m
#houses destroyed
14000 49000
damage 300 mill. U$ 700 mill. U$
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Content
1. Geographical location
2. History of Delta project
3. Climate Change: New Delta Project
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Delta-act Delta Plan
A
A B C D
A
B B
B
B
B
B
C
D
C
C
C
D D
D
D
D
D
DC
C
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B
B
D
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Series of dams and barriers
Rotterdam
Antwerp
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• Full protection: Storm surge may not happen again
• Dams & barriers shorten the coastline : raising 1000 km of dikes is more expensive
• Create fresh water reservoirs & protection against salt intrusion
• Fresh water as potential for recreation
Arguments for Delta plan
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Brouwersdam
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Haringvliet Sluices
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3km
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Haringvliet sluices
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Haringvliet sluices
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Value of Estuary: Eastern Scheldt Barrier
Rotterdam
Antwerp
Tide
Tide free shipping routeMussel fishing
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Eastern Scheldt barrier: 3 barriers over 3 km
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Maeslantbarrier; Accessibility Rotterdam harbor
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Construction costs
Yearin
operation
Net presentvalue 2007million €
Net presentvalue 2007million €
[Disc rate 2%] [Disc rate 4%]
Storm Surge barrier Hollandse IJssel 1954 98 126
Haringvliet barrier 1961 1,464 1750
Brouwersdam 1961 353 421
Hellegatsplein and Volkerak sluices 1961 477 570
Grevelingen dam 1961 165 197
Storm Surge barrier Oosterschelde 1986 3,850 6161
Compartmentworks 1984 837 1295
Canal through Zuid-Beveland 1984 915 739
Maeslant storm surge barrier 1997 477 559
Europoort barrier and Hartel barrier 1997 253 259
Total costs [Billions Euro] 8,9 12,1
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Content
1. Geographical location
2. History of Delta project
3. Climate Change: New Delta Project
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Climate Change / Sea level rise
2929
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Climate Change / Sea level rise
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Climate Change
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Socio Economic trends
31 2015 2100
16 milj
22 milj
10 milj
Pop growth
Economic growth
+2.5%
+1 %
Pop decrease
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Rotterdam 1684
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Rotterdam 1940
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Rotterdam 2000
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"Gezicht op Nieuw Amsterdam" by Johannes Vingboons (1664)
landgebruik
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landgebruik
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landgebruik
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Source: project Aandacht voor Veiligheid 2007
www.adaptation.nl
16 Mil. inhabitants
Land use 2015
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Source: project Aandacht voor Veiligheid 2007
www.adaptation.nl
22 Mil. inhabitants
Land use 2100
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Risk based approach
• Socio – economic impacts:– Casualties– Direct damage– Indirect damage
• Probability of an extreme flood• Risk = probability * damage
Resilience• Adaptive capacity (o.a. finance, recovery, governance ….)
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Nichols et al, 2008
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Risk : probability * Damage
Current risk:
~100 milj. Euro/year
year
Development of flood risk for the Netherlands
Only low economic growth
Only high economic growth
Only 60cm SLR
Only 85cm SLR
Only 150cm SLR
RiskMilj euro/year
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Uncertainty
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Source: http://info.insure.com, 2002 Source: cnn 2007
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Erosion: work with nature
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NY area: +/- 4 million m3 sand/ year Netherlands: +/- 20 million m3 sand/ year
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New Delta PLan
Extra pumping capacity
River widening
Beach Nourishment
Dike
Dike
Dike
Dike
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Building codes, Innovation in Architecture
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SLR [cm]
Max Discharge Rhine [m3/s]
Max Discharge Meuse [m3/s]
Re enforcement Levees
[Billions Euros]
Beach nourishment
[Billions Euros]
Costs [Billions Euro’s]
Costs of adaptation
Far Future
Total [Billions Euros]
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Time
2006 2050 2100
Acceptable level of risk
When to invest?
Ris
k
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Original costs in 1970: 1,5 Billion Euro’s (2007)
Option 1. Replacement of doors for 60cm = 100 Million EuroOption 2: replace whole barrier = 1 Billion Euro’s
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Lifetime barrier = 100 years
Design criteria in 1970 = 20cm sea level rise in 100 years
Barrier is 50 years old: “ only10cm sea level rise to go”With a SLR of 60cm/100years, the barrier would not fit design criteria in ~2025In 2025 invest 100 Million Euro to replace doors (replacement whole barrier in 2070-2120)
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However: If SLR is 150cm
then replacement of whole barrier would be much earlier,and hence, replacing only doors in short term is not an option
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Conclusions
• Barrier concept works, but adjustments needed:– Environmental aspects– Shipping
• Working with nature– Beach nourishment– River widening
• Architecture / building codes• Climate change poses new challenge
– How to design measures such they are flexible to accommodate different future scenario’s
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Thanks!
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www.adaptation.nl
www.deltacities.com