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A Curmudgeon’s Guide to RTC:Market Status
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
TADSummit, Lisbon, November 2016
[email protected] @disruptivedean
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Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis
Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991 Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecasting Cross-silo, contrarian, independent Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016November 2016
Network Tech, Policy & Business Models
Communications Apps & Services Telco-Futurism*
*Corporate astrology, per AQ
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The world is polarising between open / closed
LiberalismEqualities
Entrepreneurialism Internet/SocialCollaboration
AuthoritarianismInequalitiesInterference
CentralisationAutonomy
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“The 21st Century is a Terrible Time to be a Control Freak”Alec Ross, The Industries of the Future
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5 parallel trends for the telecom industry. All link to RTC
Accelerating shift to IP PSTN switch-off, slow drift to IP in mobile
Faster networks, primarily for Internet/mobile The "software telco“ & the cloud Commoditisation of core services
Slow death of basic P2P telephony & SMS Drive for new services, APIs & sources of revenue
Intersection with “Orthogonal Futures” IoT, AR/VR, AI etc…
November 2016
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Is the “Telecom Establishment” capable of evolving RTC?
Is Telecoms too important to leave up to Telcos?Is there too much “closed” Establishment control-freakery?
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Peak Telephony
Many markets past peak telephony
Despite lower prices & more competition
Other voice / calling apps growing
Shift to messages & apps / notifications
Some move to video Enterprise use of UC &
conferencing
November 2016
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Total Outgoing Minutes of Telephony (fixed + mobile), billion
Source: Disruptive Analysis
-15%
-13%
-11%
+9%
Spain
Germany
France UK
Telephony v1.0 is “The Establishment” & is crumbling
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Growth of VoLTE & VoWiFi means…… Not much.
Primary use cases are utilitarian / tech-driven: VoWiFi: Indoor coverage (mostly for operators with little <1GHz 4G spectrum) VoLTE: Eventual spectrum re-farming from 2G/3G to 4G/5G Complex implementation (esp VoLTE). Needs IMS, policy infrastructure, testing etc Maybe lower opex, when old CS core can be decommissioned
No new revenue / service opportunities Maybe lower churn / higher customer satisfaction
T-Mo US: 22m VoWiFi calls per day; 6.5m MAUs Vodafone UK: “Single-digit % of calls”
November 2016
Telephony v1.1 from The Establishment = Meh
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What do all these technologies have in common?
November 2016
“Digital” won’t save the Telecoms Establishment either
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RCS? Was dead, still dead, still trying to eat brains
November 2016
Let's go to the Winchester, have a pint, and wait for this to blow over.
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“Anti-Establishment” doesn’t mean “disorganised”
November 2016
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So what is cool in consumer comms?
November 2016
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… future comms experiences much deeper than today
November 2016
[Whisper] “Close the deal, now!”
Anger detected: change script / escalate to mgr
“The person you are calling is at the airport & running”
20K followers on Twitter! Influential so offer video call
Person is outdoors: mask background
noise
“Please breathe into the phone’s
mic & then cough”
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A quiet game-changer?
November 2016
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UCaaS in middle of a variety of enterprise comms trends
November 2016
WCC & work-
streams
cPaaS & Verticals
Contact centres &
CRM
A2P messag-
ing
Cloud Security
Context, Video &
WebRTCSD-WAN & NaaS
UCaaSEnterprise RTC
has more migration from
establishment to anti-establishment
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What about WebRTC? Billions of end-points
Hundreds of millions of occasional users Tens of millions of regular users
Consumer / B2C use is mostly mobile in-app Desktop & B2B use more patchy & browser-dependent Key use-cases (+ a long tail of niches)
Video-chat in messaging & social apps Conferencing / UC guest-access “Greenfield” UC apps Video in banking / insurance / health / education / expert services
Mixed adoption by telcos outside UC & PaaS services Some in-house development; some resale & partnership
November 2016
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Next up: Voice, video, messaging intersect IoT
November 2016
Ordinary calls
Non-voice audio
Context data
Video calls/confs
Cognitive
AR / VR
Messaging
cPaaS
In- vehicle
Industrial IoT
Wear-ables
Smart city
Ag-Tech
Drones etcetc
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www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedean
Skype:disruptiveanalysisappear.in/disruptiveanalysis
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