Download - The ExternE-Approach for Calculating External Costs – Methodology and Preliminary Results
ExternE _
The ExternE-Approach for Calculating
External Costs – Methodology and Preliminary Results
Peter Bickel
IER - University of Stuttgart, Germany
NEEDS FORUM 1
Accepting the Real Price for Sustainable Energy
Brussels 24 May 2005
ExternE _
History of ExternE
Project ExternE = Externalities of Energy launched in 1991, financed by the European Commission, DG Research
scope: development of a framework for estimating environmental external costs of power plants
Follow-up projects until now improving and extending the methodology, incorporating new
knowledge extending the field of applications: heat production, transport,
industrial activities, agriculture, waste treatment
ExternE _
For what purpose are estimates of external
costs needed?
to take account of external effects, when making decisions
Technology assessment: comparison of techniques, identification of weak points
Internalising external costs: getting the prices right (taxes), use of other instruments (standards, permits, subsidies …)
Cost-Benefit-Analyses, e. g. for measures and directives to protect the environment and human health
Sustainability and welfare indicator
ExternE _
Basic Concept of the Impact Pathway Approach
• Assessment or weighting of impacts should as far as possible be carried out using quantitative figures and procedures
ensures transparency and reproducibility
• Impacts are expressed in monetary units
allows transfer of values, units are conceivable, direct use of results in CBA and for internalising via taxes possible
however not essential: ‘utility points’ would give the same results
ExternE _
Basic Methodology of the Impact Pathway Approach
This implies:
valuation of physical impacts, not burdens/pressures (e.g. emissions of pollutants)
as impacts depend on time and site of activityBottom-up approach needed: the ‘impact pathway approach’
available information should be explained before measuring preferences
second best option: use of preferences of representatives (elected decision makers)
Basis of assessment: (measured) preferences of the (potentially) affected, well-informed population
ExternE _
The principle Differences of Physical
Impacts
Transport andChemical
Transformation;Noise Propagation
MonetaryValuation
Pollutant/Noise Emission
Calculation is made twice: with and without
project
ExternE _
Illustration: A Fictitious Coal Fired Power
Plant in Janin, China(Reference plant defined in Hirschberg et al. (2003))
• Capacity: 925 MW
• Electricity sent out: 860 MW
• Full load hours per year: 5469 h
• Stack height: 220m
• SO2 emissions: 3.8 g/Nm3
• NOx emissions: 1.5 g/Nm3
• PM10 emission: 0.5 g/Nm3
ExternE _
Jinan power plant
Location and Population Distribution
ExternE _
Jinan power plant
Change in Concentration: PM10
ExternE _
Exposure Response Function:
Number of new case of chronic bronchitis
= 4.9 · 10-5 · PM10 · Population
Additional cases of chronic bronchitis due to one TWh
electricity produced in the fictive exemplary power plant
due to primary and secondary particles: 710
Quantification of impacts and costs (I)
ExternE _
Impacts included (I)Impact Category Pollutant / Burden Effects
Human Health – mortality
PM10 SO2, O3
Benzene, BaP, 1,3-butad., Diesel part., radioactive subst. Noise Accident risk
Reduction in life expectancy due to short and long time exposure Reduction in life expectancy due to short time exposure Reduction in life expectancy due to long time exposure Reduction in life expectancy due to long time exposure Fatality risk from accidents (road, mining, nuclear,…)
Human Health – PM10, O3, SO2 Respiratory hospital admissions morbidity PM10, O3 Restricted activity days PM10, CO Congestive heart failure Benzene, BaP, 1,3-
butad., Diesel part. Cancer risk (non-fatal)
PM10 Cerebrovascular hospital admissions, cases of chronic bronchitis, cases of chronic cough in children, cough in asthmatics, lower respiratory symptoms
O3 Asthma attacks, symptom days Noise Myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, hypertension, sleep
disturbance Accident risk Risk of injuries from traffic and workplace accidents
ExternE _
Impacts included (II)
Impact Category Pollutant / Burden Effects Building Material SO2, Acid
deposition
Combustion particles
Ageing of galvanised steel, limestone, mortar, sand-stone, paint, rendering, and zinc for utilitarian buildings
Soiling of buildings
Crops SO2 Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, sugar beet
O3 Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, rice, tobacco, sunflower seed
Acid deposition Increased need for liming
N, S Fertilising effects
Global Warming CO2, CH4, N2O, N, S
World-wide effects on mortality, morbidity, coastal impacts, agriculture, energy demand, and economic impacts due to temperature change and sea level rise
Amenity losses Noise Amenity losses due to noise exposure
Ecosystems Acid deposition, nitrogen deposition
Acidity and eutrophication (change in area where critical loads are exceeded)
ExternE _
Quantification of impacts and costs (II)
Additional cases of chronic bronchitis due to one TWh
electricity produced in the fictive exemplary power plant
(primary and secondary particles): 710 /TWhel
Monetary value (transferred using PPP adjusted income):
24 200 € per case of chronic bronchitis
Damage costs of cases of chronic bronchitis per kWh
electricity: 0.23 €-Cent per KWh
ExternE _
Monetary Valuation
Health effects Monetary value (€ 2000)Value of a prevented fatality (VPF) 1,040,000
Year of life lost (chronic effects – long time exposure) 50,000
Cerebrovascular hospital admission 16,730Respiratory hospital admission 4,320Congestive heart failure 3,260Chronic cough in children 240Restricted activity day 110Asthma attack 75Cough 45Minor restricted activity day 45Symptom day 45Bronchodilator usage 40Lower respiratory symptom 8
ExternE _
Marginal damage costs:
• 2,4 €2000 per t CO2 (ExternE 2000) – median value/ large range (ca. 0,1 to 16 € per t of CO2 in ExternE; up to 165 € per t of CO2 in other studies)
Marginal avoidance costs for EU-Kyoto aim -8% CO2eq. 2008-2012 compared to 1990
• ca 20 € per t CO2eq with emission trading(range ca. 5 – 42 € per t of CO2 )
Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
ExternE _
Uncertainties of estimations of external costs
Range of results caused by different assumptions and hypotheses (discount rate, model for assessing mortality risks)
sensitivity analysis establish conventions on hypotheses/assumptions to be
used- participative methods involving relevant social groups- guidelines by decision makers
project MAXIMA: aiming at consensusproject HEATCO to propose harmonised guidelines for the
transport sector for DG TREN
recommendations for VSL and discount rates (DG Env)
ExternE _
Site Dependence of Quantifiable External Costs
(Modern Coal Power Plant)
0
1
2
3
4
Spain
Italy UK
Poland
Germ
any
France
Belgiu
m
[Eu
ro-C
en
t / k
Wh
] NMVOC
PM10
NOx
SO2
CO2eq
ExternE _
Quantifiable External Costs of New Power Plants in Germany (near future technologies)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WEC_offs
WEC_ons
Hydro
PV-sc-Si
Natural gas CC
Bio-CHP
PAFC
Lignite, IGCC
Coal, IGCC
Coal, PFB
External Costs [Euro-Cent / kWh]
Health impacts Crops Material GHG
ExternE _
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WEC_offs
WEC_ons
Hydro
PV-sc-Si
Natural gas CC
Bio-CHP
PAFC
Lignite, IGCC
Coal, IGCC
Coal, PFB
External Costs [Euro-Cent/ kWh]
direct - operation indirect - up- and downstream
Quantifiable External Costs of New Power Plants in Germany (near future technologies)
ExternE _
Quantifiable External Costs - Core
19 Euro/t CO2, Nitrates = 0.5 PM10, YOLLchronic = 50.000 Euro
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
WECOffshore
WECOnshore
Hydro PV sc-Si ORC-HKW PAFC Lignite, IGCC Coal, IGCC Coal PFB
Ext
ern
al C
ost
s [E
uro
-Cen
t /
kWh
]
Health impacts Crops Material Climate change
Sites in Germany
ExternE _
Quantifiable External Costs
Sensitivity: 50 Euro/t CO2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
WECOffshore
WECOnshore
Hydro PV sc-Si ORC-HKW PAFC Lignite, IGCC Coal, IGCC Coal PFB
Ext
ern
al C
ost
s [E
uro
-Cen
t /
kWh
]
Health impacts Crops Material Climate change
ExternE _
Quantifiable External Costs - Core
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
WECOffshore
WECOnshore
Hydro PV sc-Si ORC-HKW PAFC Lignite, IGCC Coal, IGCC Coal PFB
Ext
ern
al C
ost
s [E
uro
-Cen
t /
kWh
]
Health impacts Crops Material Climate change
ExternE _
Quantifiable External Costs
Sensitivity: YOLLchronic = 151.110 Euro
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
WECOffshore
WECOnshore
Hydro PV sc-Si ORC-HKW PAFC Lignite, IGCC Coal, IGCC Coal PFB
Ext
ern
al C
ost
s [E
uro
-Cen
t /
kWh
]
Health impacts Crops Material Climate change
ExternE _
Quantifiable External Costs - Core
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
WECOffshore
WECOnshore
Hydro PV sc-Si ORC-HKW PAFC Lignite, IGCC Coal, IGCC Coal PFB
Ext
ern
al C
ost
s [E
uro
-Cen
t /
kWh
]
Health impacts Crops Material Climate change
ExternE _
Quantifiable External Costs
Sensitivity: Nitrates have no impact on human health
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
WECOffshore
WECOnshore
Hydro PV sc-Si ORC-HKW PAFC Lignite, IGCC Coal, IGCC Coal PFB
Ext
ern
al C
ost
s [E
uro
-Cen
t /
kWh
]
Health impacts Crops Material Climate change
ExternE _
Summary
• The Impact Pathway Approach helps to estimate impacts of technologies for energy conversion and to assess them based on preferences of the affected population/environment for a large number of impact pathways.
• The methodology has been widely used for decision aid in the fields of energy conversion, transport and environmental protection.
• Gaps and uncertainties exist, however will be more and more reduced due to ongoing research (e.g. on pathways involving toxic substances, heavy metals, biodiversity, water and soil contamination…).