The Fast-Approaching Frontier: Employment Outcomes of College Graduates
How Do We Make Sense of it All?
Patrick J. Kelly
National Center for Higher Education Management Systems
• Federal Gainful Employment
• Effective utilization of federal SLDS grants
• College attainment/completion goals – state retention of graduates and economic returns
• Increased focus on “credentials of value” – the attainment of credentials of less than two-years in length (primarily) that yield living/competitive wages
• Meeting employment demand in key areas – e.g. health, education, STEM, trades
• Increasing need for employment outcomes data to make the case for continued investment (state and federal policymaking environments)
Environmental Pressures
The Data are Simple
• Employed – record in the database (excludes self employed, military, and employed out-of-state)
• Earnings
• Industry of Employment
• Region of Employment
Employment/Wage Records
Data Available Quarterly
• Completions
• Level of Award (Certificate, Associates, Bachelor’s Masters, Doctorate, Professional)
• CIP Code of Award – Field of Study
• Continued Enrollment
Institution Records
Data Available by Term
LinkSSN
• What percentage of the graduates are employed in-state – by level and type of award?
• Are the graduates employed in the region in which they graduate?
• What are their quarterly earnings?
• What industries are the employed in? (only relevant in a few fields)
• What percentage continue to enroll/persist in postsecondary education?
Major Questions Answered
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60
Median Annual Wages by General Field of Study and Age (United States)(Includes Only Bachelor’s Degree Holders, Not Residents Who Earned Graduate/ Professional Degrees)
Employment Outcomes Metrics/
UI Data Match
AgeSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample)
STEM
Health
Business and Communications
Psychology and Social Sciences
Liberal Arts
Education
• State brain drain. Is the state retaining the graduates it produces? How is it changing over time? (the impact on the degree and attainment goals of the state).
• State-level supply and demand. What is the employment status of graduates in key areas of demand for the state? E.g. health and STEM fields, certain trades. Don’t fall into the trap of overly detailed program-to-occupation supply and demand studies.
• Regional supply and demand. Are institutions producing graduates that meet local employer needs? What are the employment status and wages of the graduates they produce?
• Information for students and families. What programs provide the highest wages in the short-run? What programs are more likely to require continued education upon completion?
Most Effective Uses of the Data
• Small numbers of graduates for many programs
• It is very difficult to calculate the “value added” by institution – i.e. the likely employment and wages of students had they not completed their college credentials
• The state economy treats graduates from some institutions better than graduates from others (with the same credentials) – the “prestige” factor
• Institutions serving large numbers of place-bound students are victims of their local economy (e.g. a part of the state that has low wages relative to other parts of the state)
• The difficult balance between directing students into programs with competitive wages and providing student choice
Institutional Accountability (Difficult at Best)
• Voluntary participation of 20 institutions – represented by nearly all sectors
• Pilot a few employment outcomes metrics using the match between graduate student unit records and the state unemployment insurance (UI) databases
• Data Captured: Employment, continued enrollment, and wages one and five years after graduation (by level and field of study)
• Documentation of the results, barriers, what the data tell us, what they don’t, and the most responsible/effective uses of the data in policy and practice
Gates Foundation Voluntary Metrics Project
Context
Why Indiana?
Career and training opportunities associated with:
• Levels of education that are greater than high school and less than a bachelor’s degree.
• Typically requiring undergraduate postsecondary certificates, certifications, associates degrees.
Focus of IndianaSkills.com
Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds
Less th
an High Sch
ool
High Sch
ool
Some Colle
ge, N
o Degree
Associa
tes Deg
ree
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate, P
rofessi
onal Deg
ree0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
11.2
33.5
22.4
8.6
16.2
8.2
12.6
27.0
22.2
8.4
19.1
10.7
Indiana United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey
Average Annual Net Migration of 22 to 64 Year Olds by Education Level (2005-09)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
Less t
han High
School
High Sc
hool Grad
uate
Some C
ollege
, No Deg
ree
Associa
tes Deg
ree
Bachelo
rs Deg
ree
Graduate
or Profes
sional
Degree
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2,815 2,6113,085
1,127
-1,581
-765
Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage (2010)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
24.9
24.2
23.0
22.9
22.8
22.7
22.2
22.2
21.8
21.4
21.3
20.2
20.2
20.2
19.9
19.5
19.2
18.9
18.6
18.2
17.9
17.8
17.3
17.1
16.7
16.5
15.9
15.6
15.5
15.4
14.6
14.6
14.3
14.3
14.2
14.2
13.7
13.7
13.7
13.7
13.4
12.6
12.4
11.8
11.7
11.7
11.5
10.9
10.6
10.3
9.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mis
siss
ippi
Arka
nsas
Kent
ucky
Wes
t Virg
inia
Alab
ama
Loui
sian
aN
ew M
exic
oTe
nnes
see
Texa
sSo
uth
Caro
lina
Geo
rgia
Flor
ida
Ariz
ona
Okl
ahom
aN
orth
Car
olin
aCa
lifor
nia
Nev
ada
Indi
ana
Idah
oM
isso
uri
Ohi
oU
nite
d St
ates
Mic
higa
nO
rego
nN
ew Y
ork
Mai
nePe
nnsy
lvan
iaRh
ode
Isla
ndM
onta
naIll
inoi
sKa
nsas
Verm
ont
Wis
cons
inSo
uth
Dako
taDe
law
are
Uta
hN
ebra
ska
Colo
rado
Was
hing
ton
Iow
aVi
rgin
iaN
ew Je
rsey
Alas
kaM
aryl
and
Mas
sach
usett
sCo
nnec
ticut
Min
neso
taH
awai
iW
yom
ing
New
Ham
pshi
reN
orth
Dak
ota
4.9
4.4
3.9
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
-3.0
-3.6
-3.8
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Indi
ana
Mic
higa
nG
eorg
iaW
isco
nsin
Ohi
oN
evad
aN
orth
Car
olin
aId
aho
Flor
ida
Uta
hTe
nnes
see
Ore
gon
Min
neso
taCo
lora
doM
isso
uri
Dela
war
eRh
ode
Isla
ndSo
uth
Caro
lina
Illin
ois
Verm
ont
Alab
ama
Uni
ted
Stat
esM
assa
chus
etts
New
Ham
pshi
reCo
nnec
ticut
Was
hing
ton
Kans
asN
ew Je
rsey
Neb
rask
aAr
kans
asIo
wa
Ariz
ona
Penn
sylv
ania
Mar
ylan
dM
aine
Kent
ucky
Virg
inia
Calif
orni
aTe
xas
Mis
siss
ippi
New
Yor
kO
klah
oma
Alas
kaSo
uth
Dako
taN
ew M
exic
oM
onta
naLo
uisi
ana
Haw
aii
Nor
th D
akot
aW
est V
irgin
iaW
yom
ing
Change in Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage – Since 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
Supply DemandInformation and Analysis Imposed –
A “Study”
Employers – “I’ve been telling you this for years, we can’t find people with the skills we need”
Education/Training Providers – “This is great information but you’re asking us to cut programs that generate revenue, restructure/change faculty resources, add programs that cost more to provide, and change student choice?”
Policymakers – “Interesting report but the college in my district doesn’t like it”
Potential Students – “I have no clue the report even exists, and wouldn’t read it if I did”
Information Made Accessible – Creating an Environment for Change
Information
Students Employers
Providers Policymakers
Access to Data and Information that Inform Users and Generates the
Public Will for Change
• Job seekers find career opportunities and short term training programs that best match their skills and interests, are in high demand, with competitive wages.
• Employers learn a great deal more about the occupations they are hiring for, the skills and credentials they should be requiring, and the wages being paid to similar employees around the state.
• Students become better informed about short-term training programs that lead to gainful employment in the state and regions in which they live.
Website Designed to Help:
• General information about occupations – U.S. Department of Labor, MyNextMove.org, MySkillsMyFuture.org, Bureau of Labor Statistics, O’net
• Real-time data on occupation demand – Burning Glass
• Status of recent college graduates – Indiana’s Workforce Intelligence System (IWIS).
Data Sources
Most Job Postings for Sub-Baccalaureate Occupations(Source: Burning Glass)
1,829 1,908 1,962 2,089 2,100 2,140 2,186 2,212 2,221 2,334 2,338 2,428 2,491 2,500 2,512 2,536 2,541
2,826 3,104
3,358 3,460
3,935 4,042
4,304 4,523 4,609 4,837
5,079 5,097
8,198 11,501
11,952 13,059
14,938 17,374
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Receptionists and Information ClerksPersonal Financial Advisors
Production Workers, All OtherCooks, Restaurant
Health Technologists and Technicians, All OtherAutomotive Service Technicians and Mechanics
Insurance Sales AgentsJanitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All OtherBookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
CashiersMerchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers
Food Service ManagersComputer User Support Specialists
TellersFirst-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers
Industrial Production ManagersStock Clerks and Order Fillers
Nursing AssistantsFirst-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational NursesOffice Clerks, General
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, HandGeneral and Operations Managers
Secretaries and Administrative AssistantsExecutive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving WorkersLight Truck or Delivery Services Drivers
Maintenance and Repair Workers, GeneralCustomer Service Representatives
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales WorkersSales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing
Registered NursesRetail Salespersons
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Most Requested/Required Certifications(Source: Burning Glass)
167169174186194195200201210214230241249300329335338376379418452461489505511557563586
8431,118
1,9622,0392,077
2,1937,528
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
SERIES 7HOME HEALTH AIDE
INDIANA CERTIFIED NURSE AIDEREGISTERED HEALTH INFORMATION ADMINISTRATOR
FIRST AID CPR AEDFORKLIFT OPERATOR CERTIFICATION
REGISTERED RESPIRATORY THERAPISTINSURANCE LICENSE
CERTIFIED A+ TECHNICIANADVANCED CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT (ACLS) CERTIFICATION
REGISTERED HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNICIANCERTIFIED SURGICAL TECHNOLOGIST
CERTIFIED PHARMACY TECHNICIANCOMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE
PHLEBOTOMY CERTIFICATIONBASIC CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT CERTIFICATION
CERTIFIED MEDICAL ASSISTANTREGISTERED NURSE
INSURANCE LICENSECDL CLASS A
SERIES 6LICENSED VOCATIONAL NURSE (LVN)
AUTOMOTIVE SERVICE EXCELLENCE (ASE) CERTIFICATIONFIRST AID CPR AED
COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSECERTIFIED OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY ASSISTANT
FORKLIFT OPERATOR CERTIFICATIONFIRST AID CPR AED
AUTOMOTIVE SERVICE EXCELLENCE (ASE) CERTIFICATIONFIRST AID CPR AED
CDL CLASS ACERTIFIED NURSING ASSISTANT
COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSELICENSED PRACTICAL NURSE (LPN)
REGISTERED NURSE
Status of Recent College Graduates(Source: Indiana’s Workforce Intelligence System)
4,521
465
3,665
391
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Graduates from 2008-09 to
2009-10
Continued Education
Employed in Indiana
Not Employed, Self Employed,
Employed Out of State
31,856
56,200
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Average Earnings One Year After Graduation
Average Earnings for All Registered Nurses
Example – Registered Nurses
Evansville
Indianapolis
Fort Wayne
South BendGary
Bloomington
Lafayette
Richmond
Terre Haute
New Albany
Columbus
Data and Information Available by Region
Additional Features• “Top 10 Lists” – e.g. Occupations with greatest
demand, highest earnings, highest percentage of employability, most requested certifications by Indiana employers, most requested specialized skills by Indiana employers, etc.
• Job Description Creator – an easy-to-use tool that enables employers to generate job descriptions for occupations they are hiring for – utilizing the data and information on the website (e.g. typical level of education required, certifications associated with the occupation, wages earned by Indiana employees, etc.)
Add Screenshots of IndianaSkills.com