Download - The Forty-Year Cycle in Culture and Society
Déjà Vu All Over Again
The Forty-Year Cycle in Culture and Society
Jim Lee, APFTrends BreakfastUniversity & Whist Club
History seldom repeats itself, but it usually rhymes… Mark Twain
Why are we reliving the 1970’s?
Speaking as a GenXer
Economic Discontent
Current
1970’s 1930’s
Unpopular Presidents
Current
1970’s 1930’s
Crafting, Artisanal Everything
Current
1970’s 1930’s
Folk Music
Current
1960’s & 1970’s 1930’s
Social Experimentation
Current
1970’s 1930’s
What about the 1890’s?
What about the 1890’s?
1920’s1960’s2000’s
1930’s1970’s2010’s
1950’s1990’s2030’s
1940’s1980’s2020’s
Values and Expression40-45 Year Cycle
ExternalInternal
Relational
Material
• Internal/Relational: The excesses of the previous decades are brought into question at an individual level. Real estate values peak. The social fabric unravels and there is a shifting focus towards social reform. Young adults become less conformist and more counter-cultural. (1920’s, 1960’s, 2000’s)
• External/Relational: This is a period of public unrest and skepticism. Standards of living are redefined. The economy is in a state of prolonged stagnation, yet major progress is made in terms of providing for social equality and environmental sustainability. Institutions eventually hit the “reset” button, providing a foundation for new growth and prosperity. (1930’s, 1970’s, 2010’s)
• External/Material: Is a period of rising optimism. It is typically a “golden age” period for conservatism and business. There is privatization, de-regulation and a less involved government. (1940s, 1980’s, 2020’s)
• Internal/Material: The focus shifts somewhat towards the family. Politics are still conservative, and the economy has stabilized into a period of predictable economic growth. Wealth and power becomes more concentrated. Eventually, success leads to excess – leading to speculative bubbles. (1950’s, 1990’s, 2030’s)
• Values: Material vs. Relational
• Expression: Internal vs. External
Values & Expression Cycle
Relational• Declining social mood• Reform• Social Capital• Uncertainty• Counter-culture• Localism/Isolationism
Values Cycle
Material• Rising social mood• Growth• Financial Capital• Confidence• Conformity• Globalism/
Aggression
Expression Cycle
Internal• Thought• Family• Nesting
External• Action• Individual• Exploration
Arrogance/
ShockAnger
Confidence
Optimism
The Socionomic Connection
Declining Social Mood
Rising Social Mood
ActionContemplation
A Possible Future – Previewing the 2020’s
Politics: Smaller, more limited government. Rise of a “big man.”
Science: Massive innovations coming to market based on AI, smart robotics, ubiquitous computing, personalized genomics, energy storage technologies. Return of ambitious science projects.
Culture: Careful re-examination of male gender roles (to reach fruition by 2030’s). Greater pressures toward conformity. Designers as brands. Digital nomads, urbanization, and the continued rise of status cities.
Entertainment: More goofball humor and fewer “dark” themes. Kawaii gets big. Increasingly, the audience chooses outcomes of stories.
Economy: New bull market after restructuring (repudiation?) of the U.S. debt. Focus on emerging markets for growth.
Thinking about Tomorrow
(Koans for Futurists)• What is work without employment?
• What is the role of men in a culture with less need for risk-taking, physicality, or territoriality?
• How does one conform within a post-modern society?
• What is rare within an economy of abundance?
• What does it mean to be human?
DISCLOSURES
• Strategic Foresight Investments LLC ("StratFI") is a Registered Investment Advisor ("RIA"), registered in the State of Delaware. StratFI provides asset management and related services for clients nationally.
• Information contained in this report is for informational and educational purposes only and is not to be considered investment advice or a recommendation to purchase any particular security. One should not engage in a market timing strategy without professional guidance or training, monitoring tools, and the ability to bear losses.
• Market data, trends and other content in this presentation are based on generally-available information and are believed to be reliable. StratFI does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in this presentation. Information is also time-bound and subject to change over time.
• StratFI will provide all prospective clients with a copy of our current Form ADV, ("Brochure") prior to commencing an Advisory relationship. Existing clients will receive a copy on an annual basis. However, at anytime, you can view our current Form ADV, Part 2 online. This document also details our firm's Privacy Policy. In addition, you can contact us at [email protected]
• If you have any questions regarding this presentation, please contact us.