Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production,
efficiency, livelihoods and the environment
M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton
WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation
21st September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi
The Global Livestock SectorOpportunities and Challenges
Jimmy Smith (ILRI)
ILRI-World Bank High Level Consultation on the Global Livestock Agenda by 2020Nairobi, 12- 13 March 2012
The big picture–global drivers and trends• Feeding the world• Price fluctuations• Population and urbanization• Poverty
Trends in the global livestock sector• Consumption• Food production• Trade
Pressing issues in the global livestock sector• Climate change• Water• Land• Human and animal diseases• Over consumption
Challenging issues–divergent views
Overview
The big picture – global drivers and trends
FAO: SOFA2011
Feeding the world1 billion hungry today
?
2.5 billion more to feed by 2050
Additional food needed1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to
2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009)
Additional grains1048 million tonnes
more to 2050
Humanconsumption
458 million MT
Livestock430 million MT
Monogastrics mostly
Biofuels160 million MT
FAO: SOFA2011
Volatile pricesImpacts on livestock sector and the poor?
Blip or emerging trend?
A growing–and urbanizing–population
Photo by NYT
Population growth by region1750−2050
Urbanization
Source: Economist
Changes in globalpoverty indicators
% of populationliving on less than$1.25/day• 1990−41.7%• 2005−25.2%
Millions of peopleliving on less than$1.25/day • 1990−1,818 • 2005−1,374 http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
11
> 80 60−80 40−60 20−40 < 20 no data
Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day−2010
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
Trends in the global livestock sector
Consumptionof livestock products
Consumption continues to rise with income and urbanization
Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption
Highest rates of increase are in the developing world
Livestock products contribute:17% of global kilocalorie consumption33% of global protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008)
Livestock provide food for at least 830 millionfood-insecure people (Gerber et al. 2007)
Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita consumption
Total consumption
Year Meat (kg)
Milk (kg) Meat (Mt)
Milk (Mt)
Developingcountries
20022050
2844
4478
137326
222585
Developedcountries
20022050
7894
202216
102126
265295
Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
Global value of productionof all livestock products
Herrero et al. 2011
Where does theworld’s food come from?
Herrero et al. 2009
FAO: SOFA 2009
Growing trade in livestock commodities–with impacts also at local level
ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
Pressing global issuesin the livestock sector
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050
Climate changeWhat will happen to feed resources?
diseases? productivity?
Courtesy of Andy Jarvis
Global greenhouse gas efficiencyper kg of animal protein produced
Large inefficiencies in the developing world–an opportunity?
Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
A global water crisis
2 billion peoplelack access
Demand is growing; freshwater is getting scarcer
70% of total freshwater useis for agriculture,of which 31%is for livestock
Livestock and land use Land use
• 3.4 billion hectares (about 26% of emerged lands) • low intensity in developing countries but growing in Latin America
(this accounts for 80% of deforestation in LAC)• marginal land frontier exhausted• 20% of rangelands are degraded (higher in the dry lands)
Extent of feed-crops• 470 million hectares (about 33% of arable land)• cereals: production growth mainly based on intensification /
regional distribution of crops• soybean: production growth based on expansion in a limited
number of countries (20% of deforestation in the neotropics)
22
Steinfeld et al 2006
What role for rangelands?
Potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands (Conant and Paustian 2002)
• Largest land use system
• Increasingly fragmented
• Potentially alarge C sink
• PES: important source of income diversification
• Difficulties in: Measuring and
monitoring C stocks Establishment of
payment schemes Dealing with
mobile pastoralists
World Land Acquisition
Livestock and human disease
Animal source foods are the biggest contributor to food-borne disease
Diseases transmitted from livestock and livestockproducts kill more peopleeach year than HIV or malaria
One new human disease emerges every 2 months−20% of these from livestock(Jones et al., 2008)
Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita consumption
Total consumption
Year Meat (kg)
Milk (kg)
Meat (Mt)
Milk (Mt)
Developing 20022050
2844
4478
137326
222585
Developed 20022050
7894
202216
102126
265295
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2009
Too much?2 billion overweight!
Enough?
Animal welfare?
ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
Challenging issues – divergent views
Large or small farms?Land consolidation vs growth and
intensification of the smallholder sector
Large commercial farms pro-efficiency(foreign capital investment)
Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor
Smallholders: Low opportunity cost of labour
Do diversified smallholder farms promote biodiversity and better managementof ecosystems services?
Smallholder sector fragmented:What actors are needed to support it?
Trajectory of change?
Supermarkets or informal sector? ‘Supermarket revolution’
took off in 1990s
Increases in market sharevary around the world
General features• Impacts the rich first• Vertical integration of food markets• Threat to smallholder participation
Effects not samefor all products• First in processed foods
(flour, oil, condiments)
• Last in fresh foods(meat, dairy, fruits and veg)
Informal milk market80% in India
ILRI/Mann
Trade-offs: Environment−livelihoods
Use of biomass–for soil or feed (or fuel)
Reduction ofanimal numbers–implications forlivelihoods
Producingwith smallerenvironmentalfootprint
To eat or not to eat . . .meat, milk and fish
1 billion undernourished2 billionoverweight
Main messages The big picture
• Feeding the world is possible• Sustaining the natural resource base is possible• Reducing absolute poverty is possible
Trends• Demand for livestock products continues to rise• Livestock systems producing much of the World’s food• Vast divide between regions and countries but increasingly interconnected
Pressing issues• Livestock impact on all global development issues• Need for reliable evidence-based assessments of hard trade-offs
Challenging issues• Organization within the sector• Managing trade offs at multiple scales• Achieving equity