![Page 1: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The History of Wargaming
Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.27 July 2015
![Page 2: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
How Do We Test Hypotheses?
Set Up Experiments?
![Page 3: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
How Do We Test Hypotheses?
Set Up Experiments?
Find Natural Experiments
![Page 4: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Innovation Cycle
History
Theory
Doctrine
Plan
Execution
![Page 5: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
In the Beginning
It all started with language - and toys
The Royal Toys
![Page 6: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
In the Beginning
EgyptEgypt EgyptRome EgyptChina EgyptIndia
![Page 8: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
On The Brink
Fredrick‘s use of maps Clerk models naval
combat Abstract games grow
less abstract:1664 Koinigspiel1780 Kriegschach1797 New Kriegspiel
![Page 9: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The Long Haired Revolutionary
![Page 10: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Napoleon’s Advantages
Technology
Genius
Meritocracy
Numbers
![Page 12: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The Origins of Modern Wargaming
1811 - Herr von Reisswitz - a base of sand
1824 - Lt Reisswitz - the expanding circle
![Page 13: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
- Offsite
- Brain Storming
- Wargame
- Exercise
- Deliberate Planning
Moltke’s Process
![Page 15: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
World Wide Wargaming
Austro-Hungarian
England
Italy
France
Russia
Secondary diffusion
1820 / 1875 / 1905
1874 / 1889
1873
1872 / 1883
1866
Japan, Turkey, Latin Am.
![Page 16: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Coming to America
1883 - Major Livermore
![Page 17: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Coming to America
1886 - US Naval War College
1883 - Major Livermore
![Page 20: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Coming to America
1900 - US Army War College
1886 - US Naval War College
1883 - Major Livermore
![Page 22: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Innovation
EgyptMoral
FactorsEgyptFreeWar-
gaming
Innovation & Decline in Germany
Innovation
Decline
EgyptMoraleFactors
EgyptFreeWar-
gaming
EgyptFaceTime
EgyptCmdInflu-ence
![Page 23: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Birth of Modern Civilian WargamingThe Reserve Connection
1873- Wilkinson - one man’s impact
1890s Delbrück - first duty of the new rulers
![Page 24: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Birth of Modern Civilian WargamingThe Popularizes
![Page 25: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Birth of Modern Civilian WargamingThe Popularizes
![Page 26: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Wargaming the Great War
Pre-war Wargamingl 1905 The wargames that shaped the worldl 1910s Moltke the Younger and the return
of rigorl 1914 The wg that didn’t change history
Wargaming & the Great Warl The Peace offensive –
• UK• German
![Page 27: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Germany – Strat Innovation > “Blood & Soil” - Opp Innovation
> Blitzkrieg > Wolf Packs
Inter War Wargaming
![Page 28: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Innovation Cycle
History
Theory
Doctrine
Plan
Execution
![Page 29: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Innovation CycleWith Wargamig
History
Theory
Doctrine
Plan
Wargame
![Page 30: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Germany – Strat Innovation > “Blood & Soil” - Opp Innovation > Blitzkrieg
US
Germany – Strat Innovation > “Blood & Soil” - Opp Innovation > Blitzkrieg
US
UK - Negative example
USSR - Victory through defeat
Inter War Wargaming
Navy PME:- Teach how to learn- Accelerate MTR
Army: Just in Time
Air Corps: A false dawn
![Page 31: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
World War II
Germany
l Mannstein makes his case
l Barbarossa - an accurate mistake
l Victory at Normandy, twice
![Page 32: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
World War II
Japan The Total War Research Institute
![Page 33: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
World War II
![Page 34: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
World War II
Both attacks on Pearl Harbor
Japan
The Total War Research Institute
![Page 35: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
World War II
![Page 36: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
World War II
Both battles of Midway Why did Japan keep on fighting
Japan
The Total War Research Institute
Both attacks on Pearl Harbor
![Page 37: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
World War II
UKBoth extremes
![Page 38: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
![Page 39: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
World War II
UKBoth extremes
USUS Army Ground Forces - unknownUS Army Air Forces - sorely missedUSMC “eerie” success, then..Navy success - but ...
![Page 40: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
World War II
The war with Japan had been [enacted] in the game roomhere by so many people in so many different ways that nothing that happened during the war was a surprise, – absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze…”.
Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz
![Page 41: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Eclipse
Did „The Bomb“ make
wargames obsolete?
Decline in thestudy of war
at the war colleges
Rise ofdeterrence &
the efficient DoD
Korea seen asan aberration
![Page 42: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
The onset of the Cold War
Assumed credibility of computers
Prestige of Operations Research
Reaction against the management mindset of Vietnam
Why was Wargaming Reborn?
The obsolescence of war had been greatlyexaggerated
![Page 43: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
1950s Analysis models
US Naval - “NEWS” from the Naval War ColUSMC - Landing Force War Game seriesArmy - “Aggressors,” at least a start Air Force - RAND & war gaming
International Soviet historical rigor UK OR
![Page 44: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
![Page 45: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
1960s Pentagon Games
US Joint - Wargaming at the heartNaval - NWC goes to “WARS”Army - making the case for Air MobileAir Force - looses Skybolt, gains PME WG
International - UK & Canadian OR
![Page 47: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Wargaming - The Vietnam War
US Wargame predicted
stalemate -- NOTcontinued to conflict resolution
Limited in theater use Wargame predicted victory
North Vietnam- Soviet method of wargaming- Partial explanation of
lack of radio use,style offighting
![Page 48: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
US
Naval - Top Gun, to CRP, to Global
Army - Tech solution to a people problem?
Air Force - Red Flag!
1970s Education and Training
![Page 49: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
USNaval - The golden age of GlobalArmy - From III Corps to NTCAir Force - Air Force Wargaming CenterUSMC – The right wargame for each needJoint
CENTCOM takes the leadDARPA’s modest innovation
1980s O-Plan Development
![Page 51: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
![Page 52: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Wargaming - The Gulf War
US
Iraqi- Soviet method for ground forces
- a reason for the halt- US software for air
forces - a reasonthey did notfight
Exercise in the Desert - Patriots accelerated Internal Look 90 - a reason we moved so fast? Wargamers at war - the road not taken Wargames in the field The US training edge
![Page 53: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Naval – Global – transformation eventArmy – Initiates Title 10 wargameAir Force – Initiates Title 10 wargameUSMC – Starts then stops Title 10 WGJoint
Service Wargames “talk” to each otherFewer, more Joint “engines” JSIMS,
JWARS
1990s US - Jointness
![Page 54: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
1990s Globally - “Expanded” Use
Congressional LiaisonProcurement DecisionsTactics Development Force TradeoffsGrowing use of virtual wargamingInternational Study US
![Page 55: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads
More money going to wargaming
Relatively less
expensive
No environ-mental impact
Secure from
“overhead”
observation
Exploits more
computing power for
less money
Credibility with
Congress
Credibility with
Congress
![Page 56: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads
More money going to wargaming
More doubts than any time since the late 40s- High Desert Storm Casualty Predictions- RAND’s Base of Sand Paper- HQ USAF concerns- Irrelevance in armed conflict with Serbia- “Competition” from commercial wargames
![Page 57: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
DOD / Commercial War Games 1950 - 1990
Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation
[Bottom Up]Operational
ResearchModels
History BasedWargames
[Top Down]
![Page 58: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
The Rise of Commercial Wargaming
More Accessible Wargames
- 1950s Charles Roberts
- 1960s Eric Dott & Avalon Hill
- 1970s James Dunnigan & the S&T Staff +
- 1980s Chris Crawford & Gary Grigsby
- 1990s 25 Billion dollar global industry
![Page 59: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
The Rise of Commercial Wargaming
More Citizens Playing Wargames
- 1950s Thousands
- 1960s Tens of Thousands
- 1970s Hundreds of Thousands
- 1980s Millions
- 1990s Tens of Millions
![Page 60: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Commercial/DOD Integration
Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation
[Bottom Up]Operational Reasearch Models
History Based Wargames[Top Down]
![Page 61: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Early 2000s
Old bothersome problems become major needs
OEF to fast to wargame
OIF“This is not the enemy we wargamed
against.” Lt Gen Wallace, V Corps CCHow do you wargame Phase IV?
![Page 62: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
The Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla, 1990 http//www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/
caffrey.html On Wargaming, Matt Caffrey, coming late 2016
To Learn More
![Page 63: The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. 27 July 2015](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649dd45503460f94acbe4a/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Questions?
Comments?
Discussion?
Material for the 2nd Edition