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The industry transformation by 2050: Sensing the futureSylvain Lhôte, CEPI
Slovenian Paper Week 2017
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Outline
• 2050 – Our industry has a vision and a time horizon
• Industry transformation is gaining pace
• More technology step-changes are on the horizon
• A more stable EU policy framework is being set for the next decade
• Advancing a circular bio-economy agenda will be key for the future
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the forest fibre and paper industry in2050
-80% +50%
roadmap
carbon emissions
added-value
to a low-carbon bioeconomy
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€ Bn
16.5
25
2010 2050
Delivering 50% more added-value?
Annual added-value 2010-2050 in the EU forest-fibre and paper industry
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Value creation will come from…
Material innovation Design innovation Delivery innovation
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Corrugated board?
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Aircraft paper honeycomb structures
Courtesy PTS
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Novel light bulbs?
Courtesy CTP
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Soda and beers bottles
Courtesy CTP
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EU forest-fibre and paper industry greenhouse gases emissions in Mt CO2e
Source Gaia 2016
199060 million tonnes CO2
201549 million tonnes CO2
205012 million tonnes CO2
Decarbonising by 80%?
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Energy efficiency, renewable integration, climate change: 14 projects from 12 companies in 10 EU countries
Industry’s transformation is gaining pace
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We are two machines away from 2050
EU forest-fibre & paper industries cumulative investments for decarbonisation in €Bn
Emerging technologies
Demand-side
Fuel switch
E-efficiency
Source: Gaia 2016
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http://www.providespaper.eu
DES technology is now ready for pilot
Lower heat and energyReduced CAPEX
Natural solvents basedHigh purity side products
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A policy frame for the next 10 years
EU regulatory frame
LULUCF - forest accountingRenewable energy directive
Circular economy packagePackaging waste directive
Emissions trading SchemeEnergy market and
governance
CEPI’s position
Secure biomass carbon neutralityPrevent a cap to harvest levels→RE distortion / wood markets?
Increase collection for recycling Drive quality standards for PfR→ Paper mills as final recycler?
Secure level of carbon credits Allocate funds for new tech.→ Harmonised rules for indirect costs Support demand side flexibility
wood
recycling
energy & climate
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…what’s next on the table
EU challenges
Mainstreaming bioeconomyEnhancing carbon benefits within a circular economy
Streamlining EU R&D funding,Adjusting budget to Brexit
Focusing on clear deliverable
Revision of EU commitments under the Paris agreement...
Our challenges
Everybody turns “bio” – how do we differentiate and get EU supportingmarkets growth?
Where should we focus R&D efforts? And how to make industry relevant for future R&D programmes?
Let’s implement first the new ETS ! How do we go beyond -80% emissions?
R&D
bioeconomy
climate change
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Advancing a circular bioeconomy?
renewable and recyclable
75% certified sourcing
75% recycled
renewed and recycled
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RIS
www.cepi.org/EPW
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thank you
18
cepi – The Confederation of European Paper Industries
www.cepi.org
@EuropeanPaper