Download - The Joint Policy Committee
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The Joint Policy Committee
July 20, 2012
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JPC: Bay Area Climate & Energy Resilience Project
“Preparing the Bay Area for a Changing Climate”
June 7th Workshop
Kresge Foundation Grant
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Problem We Are Trying to Solve
Reinventing the Adaptation Wheel
Small and mid-sized cities don’t have capacity
Some impacts cross city and county boundaries — Solutions will affect neighbors
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Problem We Are Trying to Solve
Infrastructure owned by a responsible party — Natural system protection, health more complex
State providing products and services — Can do this more efficiently thru regional collaborations
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Preparing the Bay Area for a Changing Climate
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June 7th Workshop @ Metro
80 participants
18-month roadmap
Bay Area story
Project spotlights
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Kresge Foundation Proposal
Six-month initial grant to organize collaborative
$75K - $100K
20+ stakeholder meetings: Increase support for adaptation, ID needs, shape plan
Special work plans: Social equity, GHGs + adaptation, research + action
White paper: Governance/decision-making
Interim structure & 12-month action plan
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Rising Bay Area Sea Level
Source: California Climate Indicators, 2010
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California AverageAnnual
Temperature+ 1.7˚F
1895-2011
Source: Western RegionalClimate Center
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More California warmingat night
Sources: NCDC (2007), Gershunov (2008)
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Bay Area Temp Data Mixed
NBWA 100-year study: + 2.7˚F. Less warming near coast. More warming with increasing distance from ocean.
Lebassi 50-year Bay Area study: “Complex pattern” with cooling in low-elevation areas with marine air penetration and warming in inland areas.
Null 1970-2000 vs. 1980-2010 Bay Area data: San Rafael, SF, Oakland, San Jose cooled slightly. Napa, Santa Rosa, Vacaville warmed slightly.
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Longer Time Frames BETTER
Source: UCAR for National Science Foundation
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Bay Area & California
PrecipitationNO overall
trend
Source: Western Regional Climate Center
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SignificantSierra
Changes
Tahoe: More Rain Less
Snow
Source: Coats, UC Davis
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Shrinking Sierra
Glaciers
Source: Basagic, 2008
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Less Runoff April-July
Source: CA Dept of Water Resources
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Source: Westerling, 2006
Complex Forces at Work:More/Larger Western Wildfires
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Economic Impacts in Bay Area
In California, climate risk—the damage that will occur if no action is taken—would include tens of billions per year in direct economic costs for public health, agriculture, tourism and other sectors.”
Source: Roland-Holst, 2008
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Economic Impacts in Bay Area
The amount of high-value Northern California land suitable for growing premium wine grapes could be cut in half by 2040 because of global warming, based on the conservative assumption of +2˚F globally.
Source: Diffenbaugh, 2011
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Health Impacts in Bay Area
The 2006 California heat wave, unprecedented in length for Northern California, had a significant and documented affect on emergency rooms visits and hospitalizations. Young children and the elderly were especially at risk
(Knowlton, 2011)
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Ecosystem Impacts in Bay Area
Climate change will impact the future health of San Francisco Bay. This includes droughts altering freshwater flows and water use, and floods and sea level rise altering landscapes and human behavior.
Source: State of the Bay, 2011
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Water Impacts in Bay Area
The Delta is California’s Katrina waiting to happen. -- Sen. Joe Simitian
The Delta, which provides a substantial amount of the Bay Area’s water, including half of Silicon Valley’s water, is threatened by extreme storms, sea level rise, land subsidence, and earthquakes. Source: Integrated Regional Water Management Plan
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Human Impacts in Bay Area
An individual’s vulnerability to heatwaves, high air pollution days, floods, fires, and other climate-related events is affected by age, income, ethnicity, social isolation, transportation access, living conditions, and other issues.
Source: Pacific Institute, 2010
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Bay Area SLR Projects (examples)
Adapting to Rising Tides
Hayward Shoreline Sea Level Rise Project
South Bay $1 Billion Levee Drive
SFEP Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot Project
Our Coast, Our Future
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Bay Area Ecosystems Projects (examples)
Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change Consortium
North Bay Climate Adaptation Initiative
PRBO Conservation Science Climate Change Program
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Bay Area Water Projects (examples)
SFPUC Sensitivity of Upper Tuolumne River Flow to Climate Change
Sonoma County Water Agency Carbon Free Water by 2020
Bay Delta Conservation Plan
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Bay Area Energy Projects (examples)
Bay Area Smart Energy 2020
Bay Area Bridge to Clean Economy
Marin Clean Energy
Regional Renewable Energy Procurement Project
HELiOS Project (Solar Schools)
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Bay Area Resilience Projects (examples)
Bay Localize Climate and Energy Adaptation — Community Resilience Toolkit
ABAG Regional Disaster Resilience Initiative
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Lack of technical solutions is generally not the issue in California. The biggest barriers to implementing adaptation plans are institutional, motivational, and economic.
(Moser, Ekstrom, 2012)
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Benefits to JPC Agencies
Help cities and counties
Increase support for sea level rise strategy and other measures
SCS I and II input
Reduce urban heat island impacts (ozone, health, energy)
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The Joint Policy Committee
July 20, 2012