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The main moisture flux sources in SAMS and evolution
of the system
Iracema F.A.CavalcantiDaniel R. Andres
Adma RaiaSilvio Nilo
Henrique Barbosa
CPTEC/INPE
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Models and simulations
• AGCM CPTEC/COLA T62L28 (~200 km)• 10 years simulation (1982-1991)
• 50 years simulation (using 1980-2002)
• Eta Regional Model (40 km)• DJF simulation (1996-2000)
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CPTEC/COLA AGCM
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MODEL VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MOISTURE FLUX
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NCEP REANALYSIS
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NCEP VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MOISTURE FLUX
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REGIONAL ETA MODEL
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1996 to 2000 DJF SIMULATION
Eta Regional Model 40 km
Downscale from CPTEC/COLA AGCM
MOISTURE FLUX
Moisture flux
precipitation
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INTERANNUAL CHANGES
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EL NINO CPTEC/COLA AGCM
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LA NINA CPTEC/COLA AGCM
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EL NINO 82/83- LA NINA 88/89 CPTEC/COLA AGCM
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Eta Regional Model
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DIURNAL CHANGE
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PRECIPITATION DIURNAL CYCLE
00 GMT
06 GMT 12 GMT
18 GMT
DJF
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WIND FLOW AT 850 hPa
00 GMT
06 GMT 12 GMT
18 GMT
DJF
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ETA MODEL
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Submonthly monsoon variabilityZCASLLJ
Dependence on the low level flow
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IMPROVEMENTS IN THE MODELS
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DJF 10 YEARS AVERAGE GRELL ENSEMBLE CONVECTION SCHEME MCGA CPTE/COLA
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MONTHLY AND SEASONAL CHANGES
• MONTHLY CHANGES OF MOISTURE FLUX : LARGE DIFFERENCES IN DJF AND JJA.
• MOISTURE FLUX FROM NORTH AND SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AMAZON REGION AND THEN TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BRAZIL AND FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC DIRECTLY TO SE, IN DJF.
• IN JJA THE MOISTURE FLUX IS DIRECTED FROM ATLANTIC OCEAN TO NORTHWEST S.A.
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CHANGES IN MOISTURE FLUX /WIND FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
• DIURNAL SCALE• SUBMONTHLY SCALE• SEASONAL SCALE• INTERANNUAL SCALE• INTRASEASONAL SCALE ?
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
VAMOS/CLIVAR, JOSS/UCAR