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the National Security Strategy
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Vital interests
Threats Resilience
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ALL-HAZARD APPROACH
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NATIONAL SECURITYthe ‘Dutch definition’
5 vital interests: Territorial security Phsyical safety Economical security Ecological security Social and political stability
Societal disruption
All-hazard approachSafety and security
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NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
GOAL: To increase our national resilience through insight in threats and capabilities
• Multi-sector approach• Ministries remain primarily responsible – for
prevention and preparation and – in cooperation with the ministry of Security and Justice – for response
• Ministry of Security and Justice is primarily responsible for crisismanagement
• Government-wide cooperation based on equality• Public-private cooperation
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WORKPROCESS
Threat/RiskAnalysis
RiskAssessment
Tasks CapabilitiesPolicy
initiatives
Which threats do we face?
What is the impact?
What do we need to do?
What do we need to have?
Strategic foresight
Short-termanalysis
National RiskAssessment
CapabilitiesAnalysis
Political Decision
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ACTORS INVOLVED
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Scenario
Impact
RISK
Likelihood
RISK: likelihood and impact
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10 IMPACT CRITERIA
1. Territorial security
2. Physical safety
3. Economical security
4. Ecological security
5. Social and political stability
1.1 infringement of territorial integrity 1.2 infringement of the international position of the Netherlands
2.1 fatalities2.2 seriously injured or chronically ill2.3 physical suffering (lack of basic necessities)
3.1 costs
4.1 longterm impact on environment and nature (flora & fauna)
5.1 disruption of everyday life5.2 violation of the democratic system5.3 social-psychological impact
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Uncertainties in risk assessment• Experts should state source of
know-how (e.g. empirical data)
• Available empirical data may not be rejected, replaced or removed
• Experts should differentiate between uncertainties (due to a lack of knowledge) and differences of opinion between experts
• Records should be kept of all references, sources assumptions and uncertainties used by experts
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WORKPROCESS
Threat/RiskAnalysis
RiskAssessment
Tasks CapabilitiesPolicy
initiatives
Which threats do we face?
What is the impact?
What do we need to do?
What do we need to have?
Strategic foresight
Short-termanalysis
National RiskAssessment
CapabilitiesAnalysis
Political Decision
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CAPABILITIES ANALYSIS
GOAL: Identifying capabilities that help reduce the impact and/or likelihood of a threat.
General capabilitiesThe capabilities analysis primarily identifies capabilities that have a positive effect on more than one type of threat. reasons are:cost-efficiency and also covering unknown threats
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Prevention Preparation Response Recovery
TRADITIONAL PARADIGM
RESILIENCE
POLICY INITIATIVES
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• All ministries: • Responsible ministry leads capabilities analysis• Secretariat by NCTV
• Experts:• Private sector and critical infrastructure companies• Thematic experts (e.g. social media)• Other bodies of government:
• Local/Regional• International
• Societal organisations and civilians
ACTORS INVOLVED
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WORKING TOGETHER
Different responsibilities – Common interest To avoid societal disruption
• Government: Prevent fatalities and injury and prevent a loss of confidence in government
• Private sector: Prevent loss of income/profit/customers• Individuals: Prevent personal losses (cash,
gas/water/electricity)
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POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY
• Yearly report to Parliament about:• The National Risk Assessment• Priorities (based on Capabilities analysis)• Progress on previous priorities
• Interdepartmental cooperation:• Interdepartmental Workinggroup on National Security (IWNV)• Steeringgroup National Security (SNV)• Council on Safety and Security• Council of ministers
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ADVICE & DECISIONMAKING PER STEP
Riskassessment Capabilities Analysis
Choosing themes
Policy Initiatives
Scenario-development
IWNVSNV
Coregroup IWNVNetwork of Analists
IWNVSNV
Workinggroup
Capabilities Analysis
IWNVSNVMRRoles:
Decisionmaking
&Advice E.g.:
Network of Analists
Ministries
Thinktanks
Safety Regions
Steps workprocess
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QUESTIONS?
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PRIVATE SECTOR & CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
• Critical infrastructure sectors:• products, services and underlying processes that, if interrupted,
can cause societal disruption• The dependency of society on these (mostly) basic needs is a
reason to take extra measures.
• Critical infrastructure in NL: 12 sectors, partly public, mostly private companies
• What is expected of C.I.-sectors?• Resilience, garanteed continuity, prevention of disruption
• Mutual aim: to avoid losses as a result of discontinuity• Mutual interest: shared notions of possible risks and ‘solutions’
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CIVILIANS & SOCIETAL ORGANISATIONS
• Openness to the public on risks:• Risk map on the internet: www.risicokaart.nl• Mass communication campaign
•Resilience of citizens•Public participation (encourage citizens to act)
• Implementing a cell-broadcast system
• Cooperation with societal organisations:• Red Cross & Orange Cross (Disaster response and first aid)• Educational organisations• Knowledge & advice organisation for post-disaster psychosocial care• Center for Crime-prevention and Safety
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THE INTERNATIONAL CONNECTION
• International attention for risk-analysis is rising:• EU (guidelines for risk assessment)• NATO (Civil Protection Committee)• OECD (future global shocks)• UN (ISDR-Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015)
• Similar approaches in different countries (UK, France, Germany, Norway, Canada, The Netherlands)
• But many different ways of organising the process
• Exchange on methodology, process and outcomes• Exchange of experiences, also in crisissituations