Download - The New Population Boom: Demographic Change and Global Futures Jack A. Goldstone December 8, 2010
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The New Population Boom:Demographic Change and Global Futures
Jack A. Goldstone
December 8, 2010Chicago Council on Global Affairs
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POPULATION MEGATRENDS
1. Big emerging markets and the world economy
2. Aging and shrinking workforces in the developed countries
3. Youth and Islam: The New face of the developing world
4. An Urban, not rural, world
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Where will the People Be?
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000World Population, in 000s
More Developed Na-tions
Less Developed Na-tions
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Global Labor Force Growth
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Most Developed Countries
Least Developed Countries
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Worker Growth vs. Elderly Growth
US Europe Japan & S. Korea
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1950-2000
2000-2050
US Europe Japan & S. Korea
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2000-2050
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Increase in Older Folks in the USP
opul
atio
n in
Mill
ions
1950-2000 2000-20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Workers 15-59Age 60+Age 80+
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Percentage of Population under 15 years old, 2005
Red: 40+ Pink: 30-39 Light Blue: 20-29 Dark Blue: <20
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2010 20400
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2777 2882
1513
2408
Serious, High, Extreme SFI
Stable states
Pop
ulat
ion
age
15-5
9 in
mill
ions
Global Labor Force and State Fragility
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Muslim Growth in the World
2010 20500
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
U.S. and Europe
25 countries with largest Muslim gains
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Growth in Pop 15-44 age group
1950 2010 2030 20500
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
BrazilChinaIndiaRussian Fed-erationUSA
1950 2010 2030 20500
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
D.R.CongoEgyptEthiopiaNigeriaPakistan
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An Urban World
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 20500
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Total Rich World
Urban Rich World
Total Dev. World
Urban Dev. World
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What are the Solutions?
• FLEXIBILITY– Retirement /Work/Education– Immigration and Emigration– Business start-up and innovation to find Market-based solutions
• MORE GLOBALIZATION– Open Trade and Human Exchange, New Urbanism– Have faith in European/Liberal Values– Globalization of Education!