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The Opportunity for Sustainable Habitat Development in India
Bangalore 11th December 2012
Aromar Revi
AromarRevi
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The Global context: 2000-2100
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This earth-system is largely closed (Daly et. al., 1972)
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There is Only One Earth and its in a small corner of
the known Universe (Gagarin, Armstrong et. al. 1960s)
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Present consumption requires ~2.0 worlds
21st century Population growth needs 1.5+ worlds
Ending poverty at present throughput ~2.0 worlds
Availableonly One
World
The Challenge of the 21st century Sustainability Transition
The Sustainability traverse will be largely played out in Chinese & Indian cities
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A Narrowing Global Window of Opportunity
Window ofOpportunity
Years 2000 20301970
Reso
urc
es
A narrowing ‘window of opportunity’ beyond which irreversible changes will take place
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Design for
Resilience
Reality is more complex: punctuated by multiple Shocks
SARS
Currency crisis
Oil peak
Asian growth
El Nino
FloodDrought
Desertification
We need to design our economic and urban systems for both performance & resilience
Wall St. crash
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Sustainable Habitat: Key ‘Governing’
Equations• Entropy aka Second Law of Thermodynamics
– Closed Systems - Earth
– Open Systems – Habitats
• Exergy or available energy
• Gibbs, Massieu-Planck, Boltzmann’s ‘negentropy ‘equations
• Shannon-Hartley theorem
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The Climate challenge: 2000-2100
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Evidence of Dangerous Climate Change
• Cumulative mean global temperature impact– Total anthropogenic GHG emissions to 2008 0.8 oC
– Thermal inertia 0.6 oC
– Albedo flip 0.3 oC
– Slow feedback impacts 0.3 oC
Impact of historical emissions & lag 2.0 oC
(2 oC mean implies > 4 oC inland and over 6 oC at the poles)
– Current emissions to 2030 0.4 oC
– Addition emissions due to growth 0.6 oC
BAU Global mean temperature deviation 3.0 oC
• 3 to 5 m Sea Level Rise by 2100– Thermal expansion
– Artic sea ice melt
– Greenland icesheet loss
– West Antartic icesheet loss
– East Antartic icesheet loss
• Glacial melt
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Himalayan Glacial melt (1921-2009)
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A ‘naïve’ Climate Change Impact Equation
Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations =
Historical GHG concentrations
+
[Population (1+ population growth rate)
X
GDP per capita (1 + GDP growth rate)X
Energy per unit GDP outputX
Carbon emission / unit Energy]
History, industrialisation, past-
consumption & equity
Economic and human
development, poverty
Growth, investment,
productivity, technology
governance & equity
Investment, technology,
‘metabolic’ change,
markets
Investment, technology,
efficiency, markets
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The built environment & the
Energy-Climate debate
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Relative National Share of Global Economic Output
(1500 to 2050)
Asia returns to centre of the global economy after a gap of 250 years
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Urbanisation: a key growth & economic development driver
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The battle for Carbon ‘space’ and growth potential
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A possible reframing of India’s Climate
challenge/opportunity
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The Great Transition: balancing growth & ecosystem health
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‘Sustainable
Development’
Can China traverse the environmental Kuznets curve; Germany & USA converge without serious Human Development decline India ‘tunnel through’;
or will there be serious international ‘resource’ conflict?
Future History - Sustainability Transitions: 2005
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The national context: 1970-2030
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India: the opportunity of ten simultaneous Transitions
1. Demographic transition: population stabilisation & aging
2. Health transition: infectious + lifestyle disease burden
3. Education transition: elementary secondary tertiary
4. Energy transition: oil + coal gas + renewables
5. Environmental transition: ‘brown’ + ‘grey’ + ‘green’ agendas
6. Information transition: post phone cell phone + www
7. Livelihoods transition: agrarian green + knowledge jobs
8. Economic transition: primary + secondary tertiary-led
9. Political transition: decentralised, youth and urban
10. Urban transition: rural ‘urban’
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India: Inclusive Wealth trends (1990-2008)
India’s Inclusive Wealth base is about 4 times its GDP.
Of this, the largest component is ‘human capital’
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Rs
Lakh
Cro
re
Rural Urban
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pe
rce
nt
of
Tota
l
India: Rural-Urban GDP
Rural: Urban GDP share (1970-2009)
Rural: Urban GDP fraction (1970-2009)
Early economic reforms
Early economic reforms
Phase I economic reforms
Phase II economic reforms
Phase I economic reforms
Phase II economic reforms
Close to 60% of India’s GDP comes from Urban areas
Source: National Accounts
Statistics
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India: Concentration of Economic Output (2009)
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India: Urban Sectoral GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Rs
Lakh
Cro
re
Agriculture Mining Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water Construction Trade
Hotels & Restaurants Transport, Storage & Communications Banking & Finance
Real Estate & Business Services Public Admn & Defence Other Services
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pe
rce
nt
of
Tota
l
Urban sectoral GDP growth (1970 – 2009) Urban sectoral GDP structure (1970 – 2009)
Manufacturing, trade, transport, banking and real estate primary drivers of the urban economy
Decoupling of energy/carbon systems and the real economy have to be sector specific
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India: GDP & Employment structure (2009)
The urban informal sector with a quarter of the workers produces roughly a quarter of the GDP. The urban formal sector with 5 percent of the workers
produces a similar share of the GDP.
Source: NCEUS, 2009; Kannan & Raveendran (2009)
Urban Formal :
5%
Urban Informal :
25%
Rural : 70%
Urban Formal : 25%
Urban Informal :
26%
Rural : 45%
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The Dynamics of Indian Urbanisation
(1951-2031)
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India’s Coming transition (2011-2031)
• India will add at least 300 million new people to its cities in the
next 30 years
• This is on top of the current urban population of ~300 million, of
whom over 70 million are poor
• In 2031, three of the ten largest megacities in the world will be in
India: Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata
• Over 75 other cities will have a population of over 1 million
• This will be the second largest urbanisation in human history
creating huge market opportunities and development challenges
• The only option to avoid complete systemic urban breakdown is
the simultaneous transformation of India’s cities and its villages
• A wide range of technical, institutional and social innovations will
be required to enable this
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1951
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size (millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
India
W. Pakistan
E. Pakistan
Nepal
Tibet
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ett
lem
en
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(5.7)
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size
(millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971-
2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
1961
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ett
lem
en
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(6.9)
1971
Mumbai
(5.8)
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size
(millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ett
lem
en
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(9)
Delhi
(5.6)
1981
Mumbai
(8.6)
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size
(millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971-
2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ett
lem
en
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(10.9)
Delhi
(8.2)
Chennai
(5.3)
1991
Mumbai
(12.3)
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size
(millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ett
lem
en
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(13.1)
Delhi
(12.4)
Chennai
(6.6)
Bangalore
(5.6)
Hyderabad
(5.4)
2001
Mumbai
(16.1)
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size
(millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ett
lem
en
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(15.5)
Delhi
(16.9)
Chennai
(7.5)
Bangalore
(7.2)
Hyderabad
(6.7)
Ahmedabad
(5.7)
Pune
(5.0)
2011
Mumbai
(20)
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size
(millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971- 2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
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265m
112m
200m
537m
22%17%
13%10%
7% 5%3%
21%
19%
18%
15%
12%
10%
8%
20%
21%
21%
20%
19%
18%
17%
17%
18%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
5%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
17%
3%1%
1%
1%
1%1%
1%
7%8%
8%
8%
8%8%
9%
1%2%
4%6%
7%8%
9%
3%3%
3% 3%4%
5%6%
1% 3% 4%2%
2% 3%
3% 4% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
ll In
dia
Po
pu
lati
on
(%
)
Distribution of India’s Population by Settlement Size : 1951-
2011
Class I
Cities
Other Urban Centres
Large Villages
Medium and Small
Villages
Source: : IIHS, 2011
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ett
lem
en
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Kolkata
(18.6)
Delhi
(20.4)
Chennai
(9.1)
Bangalore
(8.8)
Hyderabad
(8.2)
Ahmedabad
(5.7)
Pune
(6.1)
Surat
(5.1)
2021
Mumbai
(23.9)
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size
(millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971-2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Urb
an S
ett
lem
en
ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mill
ion
s)
Mumbai
(28.6)
Kolkata
(22.3)
Delhi
(24.4)
Chennai
(11.1)
Bangalore
(10.6)
Hyderabad
(9.9)
Ahmedabad
(8.5)
Pune
(7.4)
Surat
(6.3)
Kanpur
(5.1)
2031
Large Urban Settlement Growth
Urban Population Growth
> 5
1 - 5
0.5 - 1
0.1 – 0.5
< 0.1
Population Size
(millions)
Source: Census of India, 1971-2001
UN, 2007
IIHS analysis, 2009-10
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Goa 2030:
the Challenge of Scale-up ..
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Sustainable Forest, Food and Fisheries Production
FOREST
CONSERVATION
ZONE
RURBAN
AGRICULTURE
ZONES
DEEP SEA
FISHERIES NODES
URBAN FORESTRY
ZONES
ESTUARINE
FISHING NODES
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Goa 2030: Energy Futures
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Goa Urban Energy Consumption (2005)
• Main sources: Electricity and LPG
• Relatively high demands
• No heat recovery or efficiency
Without Agriculture/Industry consumption
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Goa Consumption Energyscape (2005)
• Great difference
between rural and
urban demands
• Specific energy
consumption is low
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Sustainable Goa Energy Fluxes (2030)
• Two grids: Local and Regional
• Local Grid is Fed by Gas, Wind, and
Biomass
• Increasing Demand with
Conservation
• Moderate heat recovery
• Moderate rooftop harvesting
Without Agriculture/Industry consumption
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TERRESTIAL
WIND FARMS
OFF-SHORE
WIND FARMS
500 MW of terrestrial & 1000 MW off-shore wind power
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LOCAL NETWORKS
BIO-GASIFIERS
Two way Power networks & a possible Gas network
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SOLAR WATER HEATING
TRI-GENERATION
BIO-METHANATION
Other Renewable & Soft Power sources
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Offshore and onshore wind turbines punctuate the
Panjim skyline by 2030
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A Key Change Driver:
Sustainable Transportation Networks
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High Speed Inter-regional Rail corridor
Mumbai
Mangalore
Bangalore
Mopa International Airport
Panjim State Capital
Madgaon
Cancona
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Intercity Light Rail & High Capacity Bus systems
INTERCITY
LIGHT RAIL
NETWORK
INTER-NUCLEI
HIGH
CAPACITY
BUS SYSTEM
NETWORK
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Hydrofoil and All season River Transport Systems
HYDROFOIL
NODES
SOLAR FERRY
NETWORKS
NEW CANAL NETWORK
FOR MAJOR URBAN
CENTRES
THREE INTRA-
MODAL TERMINII
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RUrban scale Mobility systems
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Key Change Driver:
Clean ‘Factor 4’ Manufacturing
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‘Green’ manufacturing zones
AEROSPACE HUB
ADVANCE MATERIAL
MANUFACTURING
UNITS
GAS BASED UNITS
BIOTECH AND PHARMA
UNITS
LARGE ‘GREEN’
MANUFACTURING
NODES
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Key Change Driver:
Service-sector led development
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Tourism Networks
BEACH TOURISM
NETWORK
ECO-TOURISM
NETWORK
HERITAGE TOURISM
NETWORK
RELIGIOUS TOURISM
NETWORK
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Wellness nodes & networks
HEALTH TOURISM
NODE
LOCAL HEALTH
NODE
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Educational & Technology networks
BIOTECHNOLOGY
PARK
ICE TECHNOLOGY
PARK
BUSINES SCHOOL
INDIAN HABITAT
SCHOOL
TECHNICAL
SCHOOLS
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Goa 2030: Sustainability Investment Plan (2005-2030)
A Sustainability transition is economically and financially viable within the following envelope:
• A 30-year transition to a service-sector dominated economy with low material-energy throughput
• Steady improvement in the quality of life, but voluntary restraints on unsustainable consumption combined with efficiency, dematerialisation and high savings rates
• An investment of between $ 15 to $ 18 billion over 30 to 50 years, financed by internal using soft credit and innovative financing mechanisms e.g. CDM
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Conclusion
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Four Transformative Challenges for Sustainable Habitat
• Transformation of exploitative and an increasingly unsustainable agrarian and Biomass-based economy to become more equitable, productive, eco-efficient and resilient (Mollison 1990)
• Transformation of industrial ecologies from linear source to sink processes to resource-conserving cyclic processes with dramatically lower environmental impacts (Hawken et. al. 1999).
• Reversal of the livelihood shift from industrial employment back to sustainable ecological services (e.g. sustainable agriculture, ecosystem services management and recycling) (Revi. et. al. 2006)
• Within the Knowledge Economy spreading the access to and benefits further along with a greater emphasis on dematerialization, lifestyle choices and embracing more community-oriented initiatives (Revi et. al. 2006)