Download - The perfect storm:
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The perfect storm:Are your clients prepared for the
longevity revolution?
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Agenda• The perfect storm
• Life expectancy past and present
• Medical advances
• Life expectancy in future
• More than ever, a long term business
• Our solution
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The blurring line between science and science-fiction
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The perfect storm• Exponential advances in
Biotechnology Nanotechnology Robotics and AI
• Transformative demographic shift as baby boomers enter retirement
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The law of accelerating returns
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The law of accelerating returns• First life forms took billions of years to evolve
• First technological steps - sharp edges, fire, the wheel - took tens of thousands of years
• 19th century saw more change than in previous 9 centuries
• The first 20 years of 20th century saw more change than entire 19th century
• The internet did not exist barely a decade ago
• Rate of progress now doubling every decade
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Ray Kurzweil, Inventor and Futurist
“We won't experience 100 years of technological advance in the 21st
century; we will witness in the order of 20 000 years of progress
(by today's rate)”
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Life expectancy past and present
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Historic life expectancy• In the 20s a thousand years ago
• 37 in 1800
• Now pushing 80
• Life expectancy at birth more than doubled over the last 200 years
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Life expectancy explained• The expected number of life years remaining at a
specific age
• Not just one number Life expectancy at birth vs. age 65 Varies between different countries General vs. insured population
• Just an average
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Frequency distribution
Assumptions:Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.
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Frequency distribution
Assumptions:Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.
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Frequency distribution
Assumptions:Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.
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Frequency distribution
Assumptions:Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.
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Medical advances
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Medical advances timeline
Modern medicine
420 BC
ID smallpox
910 1553 1590 1796 1816
Lung circulation
Microscope
Vaccination
Stethoscope
1st blood transfusion
1818 1870
Germ theory
1895
X-rays
1899
Aspirin
1842
Anesthesia
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Medical advances timeline
Blood types
1901
Discovery of vitamins
1906 1907 1922 1928 1936
Blood transfusion
Insulin
Penicillin
Lobotomy
Pacemaker & polio vaccine
1952 1954
Kidney transplant
1963
Lung and liver transplant
1967
Heart transplant
1953
DNA discovered
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Medical advances timeline
CT scanner
1971
MRI scanner
1980 1982 1996 1998 2003
1st artificial heart
Dolly
New cancer drugs
Human genome
Stem cells from skin cells
2007 2008
Robotic surgery
2010
1st face transplant
2010
1st artificial life
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A peek into the future• Emerging technologies
• A few controversial possibilities
• In our lifetime?
• Prepare to be amazed!
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“I spend most of my time assuming the world is not ready for the technology revolution that will be happening to them soon”
Eric Schmidt, Chairman of Google
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Stem cell technology• Growing stem cells in a
lab• Disease-in-a-dish• Dead brain cells?
Just replace them• Would you like to order a
liver, a heart?
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Nanotechnology• Ferry across the blood-brain barrier
• Creating organic and synthetic nanoparticles
• Robots in your bloodstream
Gotcha!
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Genetics• Human genome project
• Gene therapy
• DNA maintenance
• Personalised treatment
Should I buy a pizza or have my genome sequenced today?
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Telemedicine• A one-hour cancer detector on your phone. No
seriously
• How Intel and GE will monitor your grandma
• Beam me up Dr. Scotty – holograms in healthcare
Cisco's virtual doctor will see you now.
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Assistive devices• The mouse’s days are numbered – control your laptop
with your eyes
• Speak and I shall obey – voice commands for your home appliances
• Brain-computer interfaces
Neurons and computers: they mix!
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Amanda Boxtel, who has been in a wheelchair for 19 years, gets up
and walk across a stage with the help of an exoskeleton.
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Dave MacCalman, a New Zealand quadriplegic, takes his first steps in
more than 30 years.
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Artificial intelligence• They beat us in chess
• Then they beat us in a quiz game
• Now they are taking on healthcare
• The next frontier?
IBM’s Watson trouncing the competition in
Jeopardy
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The fountain of youth• Slowing down aging
• Reverse and ultimately prevent aging?
• Homo Evolutis
My, what long telomeres you have!
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Life expectancy in future
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Exponential increase in life expectancy?
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The pace of change has accelerated
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Life expectancy at retirement has probably changed more in the past 10 years than in the previous
100 years
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See how life expectancy is bound to increase even when taking a
conservative, linear view
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Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement
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Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement
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Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement
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Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement
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What happens if life expectancy continues to increase at an
exponential rate?
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More than ever a long-term business
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Changing financial planning landscape
Death
SavingDisability & illness
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Financial planning implications• Assumed age at death in FNA?
• Assumed retirement age?
• Expiry age of risk benefits?
• How do you provide for living a long but costly life with an illness?
• How do you ensure sustainable premiums?
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Changing financial planning landscape
Death
SavingDisability & illness Longevity
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Our solutions
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Our solutions• Some medical advances are to avoid disease
• Other advances are to aid people with disease
• Risk of outliving capital applies to both
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Our solutions• Solutions for clients who do not claim
Reward for saving and protecting with us Claim event for surviving to age 80
• Solutions for clients who claim Point one above, plus Critical illness solution that keeps on paying Disability benefits that protect until age 100
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Conclusion• Life expectancy has increased significantly
• Mind-boggling medical advances
• How much longer are we going to live?
• Profound implications for financial planning
• The solution