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The Political Economy of Population:Trade, Treaties, and the Fertility Transition
John A. DocesBucknell University
International Political Economy SocietyAnnual Conference 2009
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Why has fertility fallen?
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My answer• Rise of international trade• Ratification of the U.N.’s Convention on the
Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW)
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Portugal
1.5
22.
53
3.5
Tota
l Fer
tility
Rat
e
3040
5060
7080
Trad
e O
penn
ess
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
Trade Fertility
Portugal, 1960-2002Trade and Fertility
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The demographic transition
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The fertility transition• Biological component
– age of menstruation• Social component
– institutions– economic development – cultural values– modernization
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Determinants of the fertility transition
• Infant/child mortality (demographic transition model)
• Relative cohort size, The Easterlin Hypothesis• Income per person• Female literacy • Female access to education• Birth control • Abortion legalization• Age of marriage
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Where does fertility fit into IPE?• Central to the study of classical political
economy.– Malthus
• Associated with conflict/security• Associated with economic growth and
development • Associated with democracy/political stability
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Trade and CEDAW Ratification• Gray et al. (IO 2006)
– TSCS analysis – international trade and ratification are associated
with women’s empowerment • Richards and Gelleny (ISQ 2007)
– TSCS analysis– international trade improves women’s status
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A simple logic
International Trade• If trade empowers women
then it should be inversely associated with fertility.
• Galor and Mountford (2008), in a cross-section analysis of the OECD, find international trade is inversely associated with fertility.
CEDAW ratification• If ratification empowers
women then it should be inversely associated with fertility.
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Theory
• I build a supply-demand framework of fertility based on Easterlin’s (1985, 2001) work.
• Components– demand for children– potential supply of children– regulation costs
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Theory
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Theory:International Trade
• **Decreases price of substitute goods**• Also,
– increases women’s employment opportunities – increases household’s real income– encourages urbanization
• Therefore, trade reduces demand for children
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Theory:CEDAW Ratification
• Increases female literacy– Earlier onset of the mortality revolution– Thus, potential supply begins to increase at an
earlier point in time
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Theory
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Hypotheses
• International trade is inversely associated with fertility
• CEDAW ratification is inversely associated with fertility
• Trade and ratification increase the probability of the fertility transition
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Empirical Analysis• Time-series cross-section of the OECD from 1960 to 2002• Dependent variables
– total fertility rate– fertility transition: 1 if TFR≤2.1 and 0 otherwise
• Test variables– level of trade openness – year after CEDAW ratification
• Control variables– relative cohort size (-) – income per capita (-) and income per capita squared (+)– infant mortality (+)– population size (-)– abortion legalization (-)– lagged fertility (-)
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Summary of Empirical Results
• International trade– inverse effect on fertility – direct effect on fertility transition– 50% increase in trade reduces fertility by about .12
children per woman• CEDAW ratification
– inverse effect on fertility – direct effect on fertility transition– ratification reduces fertility by about .07 children per
woman
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Summary of Empirical Results
• The Easterlin hypothesis– Relative cohort size has inverse effect
• Infant mortality– As predicted by the DT, directly associated with
fertility• Abortion legalization
– Reduces fertility and thus youth bulges• Consistent with research arguing legalization of
abortion reduces crime
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Implications• Population growth
24
68
10W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
(in b
illio
ns o
f peo
ple)
1950 2000 2050Year
High-variant Medium-variantLow-variant
World Population, 1950-2050
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Implications• Reconsideration of the liberal peace thesis
– more trade means less population pressure/s and less conflict
• Women’s empowerment – open trade and CEDAW ratification (and similar
policy) are good ideas for women’s empowerment• Developing world?
– UN’s population predictions for sub-Saharan Africa (2050):
• low-variant fertility: 1.5 billion• medium-variant fertility: 1.75 billion• high-variant fertility: 2.0 billion
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Thank you
• Questions?
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Appendix: Regression Results 1 2 3 4
Trade openness (log) -0.199 -0.267 -0.267 -0.413 (0.038)** (0.046)** (0.059)** (0.072)** CEDAW ratification -0.042 -0.075 -0.057 -0.159 (0.021)* (0.022)** (0.022)* (0.034)** Cohort size (log) -0.428 -0.369 -0.494 (0.137)** (0.181)* (0.204)* GDP per capita (log) -2.659 -5.673 -0.161 (0.555)** (0.527)** (0.025)** GDP per capita squared (log) 0.125 0.269 -0.032 (0.028)** (0.029)** (0.004)** Infant mortality (log) 0.065 0.109 0.112 (0.033)* (0.036)** (0.037)** Population (log) 2.576 5.534 (0.552)** (0.530)** Abortion legalization -0.072 -0.107 (0.020)** (0.021)** Fertility (t-5) 0.436 (0.045)** Constant 18.925 36.383 12.282 3.922 (3.067)** (2.588)** (1.389)** (0.313)** Observations 840 948 948 948 R-squared .91 .86 .82 .71 Number of group(country) 24 24 24 24 Dependent variable is the total fertility rate. STATA command used to produce parameter estimates xtpcse y x,corr(ar1).
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Appendix: Fixed-Effects
5 6 7 Trade openness (log) -0.094 -0.098 -0.140 (0.041)* (0.043)* (0.056)* CEDAW ratification -0.010 -0.013 -0.068 (0.016) (0.017) (0.025)** Cohort size (log) -0.595 -0.559 -1.187 (0.126)** (0.131)** (0.064)** GDP per capita (log) 0.319 1.311 -3.896 (0.617) (0.788) (0.346)** GDP per capita squared (log) -0.019 -0.072 0.189 (0.033) (0.041) (0.019)** Infant mortality (log) -0.003 -0.003 0.328 (0.026) (0.027) (0.042)** Population (log) 0.173 -0.099 1.911 (0.171) (0.219) (0.382)** Abortion legalization -0.028 -0.044 -0.142 (0.016) (0.018)* (0.025)** Fertility (t-5) -0.013 (0.030) Constant 0.287 -0.084 59.219 (0.030)** (0.033)* (2.683)** Observations 816 924 948 Number of group(country) 24 24 24 Dependent variable is the total fertility rate. STATA command xtregar y x,fe used in models 5 and 6. STATA command xtreg y x,fe used in model 7.
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Appendix: Fertility Transition 8 9 10 Trade openness (log) 10.203 12.082 18.649 (2.165)** (2.221)** (1.753)** CEDAW ratification 1.663 2.287 4.243 (0.715)* (0.769)** (0.508)** Cohort size (log) 14.181 11.534 (3.000)** (2.449)** GDP per capita (log) 15.295 3.020 (17.166) (17.438) GDP per capita squared (log) -0.701 -0.027 (0.903) (0.916) Infant mortality (log) -1.965 -4.185 (1.215) (1.153)** Population (log) 21.644 (7.667)** Abortion legalization 1.920 (0.741)** Observations 919 919 919 Number of group(country) 23 23 23 Dependent variable is the fertility transition: =1 if the fertility rate is 2.1 or less and =0 if the fertility rate is greater than 2.1 STATA command used to produce parameter estimates xtlogit y x,fe.
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Appendix: Literature Citations
• Conflict – Caprioli 2000, 2003, 2005; Caprioli and Boyer 2001;
Eichenburg 2003; Melander 2005a, 2005b; Shapiro and Mahajan 1986.
• Economic growth – Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1999; Bloom and Williamson
1998; Carter and Sutch 2003; Easterlin and Crimmins 1985, 2001; Ray 1998; Simon 1998; Weil 2005.
• Democracy/political stability– Feng et al. 1999, 2000; Przeworski et al. 2000