The Rise of M2M Devices Heterogeneous Uses/Heterogeneous Requirements
Robert Pepper Vice President, Global Technology Policy 3rd BEREC Stakeholder Forum 15 October 2015
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Service Adoption Forecast
Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.
Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) – 10th Year Global IP Traffic Growth & Service Adoption
Residential Mobile
Business
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VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth
34.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2009-2014 CAGR
Projected in 2010 Actual
Compound Annual
Growth Rate (CAGR)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
35.6%
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Global Connected Device Growth by Type By 2019, M2M Connections Will be More Than 40% of Total Connections
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Other (4.9%,3.6%)
Tablets (3%,4%)
PCs (11%,6%)
TVs (11%,12%)
Non-Smartphones (32%,13%)
Smartphones (15%,19%)
M2M (24%,43%)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Billions of Devices
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share
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Europe Connected Device Growth by Type By 2019, 50% of Total Connections in Europe Will be M2M
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Other (8.4%,8.0%)
Tablets (4%,5%)
PCs (13%,12%)
TVs (12%,13%)
Non-Smartphones (19%,15%)
Smartphones (14%,15%)
M2M (29%,50%)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Billions of Devices
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share
*Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia
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Europe Internet Traffic by Device Type M2M Traffic Only About 3% by 2019
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Other (0.2%,0.2%)
Non-Smartphones (0%,0%)
M2M (1%,3%)
TVs (8%,7%)
Tablets (6%,29%)
Smartphones (7%,25%)
PCs (79%,35%)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Exabytes per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share
*Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia
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Europe IP Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers
More Devices & Connections
More Internet Users
Faster Fixed Broadband Speeds
More Video Viewing
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
By 2019:
2014 2019 2.6 Billion 4.7 Billion
2014 2019 21.9 Mbps 46.9 Mbps
2014 2019 514 Million 596 Million
2014 2019 58% of Traffic
78% of Traffic
IP Broadband Growth Drivers
*Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia
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Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By Vertical Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth
Wide Range of Device Requirements
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Other* (38.2% CAGR)
Energy (31.9% CAGR)
Manufacturing & Supply Chain (8.9% CAGR)
Retail (10.5% CAGR)
Connected Cities (28.2% CAGR)
Connected Health (49.4% CAGR)
Connected Car (37.3% CAGR)
Utilities (21% CAGR)
Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (29.4% CAGR)
Connected Home (23.1% CAGR)
Billions of M2M
Connections
*Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services
48%
17%
11% 8% 7% 4%
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• Agriculture – livestock, soil monitoring, water and resource conservation, temperature control for milk tanks +
• Construction: Site and equipment monitoring
• Emergency services and national security
• New energy sources – monitoring and power generation support apps
• Smart grid and distribution
• Micro-generation– generation of power, by residential, commercial and community users on their own property
• Mining and extraction • Manufacturing and
processing • Supply chain • Warehousing and
storage
• Retail goods monitoring and payment
• Retail venue access and control
• Slot machines, vending machines
• Environment and public safety – closed-circuit TV, street lighting, waste removal, information +
• Public space advertising • Public transport • Road traffic
management
• Health monitors • Assisted living – medicine
dispensers + • Clinical trials • First responder
connectivity • Telemedicine
• Fleet management • In-vehicle entertainment
systems, emergency calling, Internet
• Vehicle diagnostics, navigation
• Stolen vehicle recovery • Lease, rental, insurance
management
• Electric vehicle charging • Smart metering
• Office building automation
• Building security • Office equipment –
printers + • Routers + • Commercial appliances
• Home automation • Building security • Network equipment –
printers + • Network infrastructure –
routers + • White goods • Tracking applications • Household information
devices
Connected Car Connected Work Connected Home Connected Health Utilities
Other Energy Retail Connected Cities
Manufacturing & Supply Chain
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$4.3T Private Sector
$2.1T Public Sector
$6.3T* Economic Value
Based on 61 Real-World
Use Cases
Value Sources
France $729B
Spain $349B
UK $706B
Germany $914B
Italy $544B
What is the IoE Opportunity in Europe?
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$736B Private Sector
$177.8B Public Sector
$914B Economic Value
Based on 61 Use Cases
Value Sources
Smart Factories
$121B
Physical/Logistical Security
$61B
Smart Grid $31B
Supply Chain Efficiency
$37B
What is the IoE Opportunity in Germany?
Smart Buildings
$19B
Others: Connected Commercial Vehicles, Connected Healthcare, Smart Parking, Smart Street Lighting, Public Transport, etc.
12 © 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
$43.7B Private Sector
$18.5B Public Sector
$62.2B Economic Value
Based on 61 Use Cases
Value Sources
Physical/Logical Security
$3.2B
Smart Grid $3.3B
Smart Factories
$4.7B
Supply Chain Efficiency
$2.2B
What is the IoE Opportunity in Portugal?
Others: Connected Healthcare, Smart Parking, Smart Street Lighting, Public Transport, Smart Farming, etc.
Connected Commercial
Vehicles $1.1B
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50% 45% 47% 48%
52% 55%
59% 61%
54% 58%
61%
68% 72%
46% 41%
31%
17% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
M2M Share of Devices (2019)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Global (43%)
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Key Takeaways • IP-enabled M2M devices fastest growing • Wide range of M2M devices for wide range of uses
• Majority non-mobile • Heterogeneous device requirements
• E.g., distance, power, bandwidth, duration, latency • Heterogeneous environments • Heterogeneous spectrum requirements • Heterogeneous regulatory requirements/regulators