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The role of Electrical vehicles in Europe -
Outcome from the ERA-Net Project EV-STEP
PD. Dr. Markus Blesl
Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung,
Universität Stuttgart
Copenhagen, Electro-mobility and EV-Step regional workshop
17th November 2014
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Motivation and objective
● What will be the perspective electro-mobility in the transport sector of
the EU-28 as a whole and in the countries is one main question at the
moment ?
● Varied assumptions concerning energy, climate and environmental
policy in the EU can have impact on the role of electro-mobility.
● The penetration of electric vehicle concepts can have impacts on the
sustainability of both, transport sector and the total energy system.
2
Analyze with a scenario analysis the role of electro-mobility in the
energy system in the EU-28 and there member states
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 3
TIMES PanEU
• Technology oriented bottom-up partial equilibrium model
• 30 region model (EU 28, No, CH, IS)
• Energy system model
• SUPPLY: reserves, resources, exploration and conversion Country specific renewable potential and availability (onshore wind, offshore wind, ocean, geothermal, biomass, biogas, hydro)
• Electricity: public electricity plants, CHP plants and heating plants
• Residential and Commercial: End use technologies (space heating, water heating, space cooling and others)
• Industry: Energy intensive industry (Iron and steel, aluminium copper ammonia and chlorine, cement, glass, lime, pulp and paper), food, other industries, autoproducer and boilers
• Transport: Different transport modes (cars, buses, motorcycles, trucks, passenger trains, freight trains), aviation and navigation
• Country specific differences for characterisation of new conversion and end-use technologies
• Time horizon 2010 - 2050
• GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 /Others pollutants: SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Schematic representation of the consideration
of Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) energy storage in
TIMES PanEU
• Idea: Electric vehicles (BEV, PHEV) serve as energy storage if connected to grid
• Thus, they could provide (peak) electricity if necessary
• Recharging during off - peak times
• However, keep sufficient energy for vehicle trips
• Additional battery cycles decrease battery lifetime!
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
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38
Development of specific investment cost of
batteries
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 6
Overview of the scenarios
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population Mio. 497 500 499 491 476
Average growth per annum % 0,01 0,00 -0,2 -0,3
GDP 1012€07 12,0 15,1 17,9 20,9 24,5
Average growth per annum % 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,6
REF REF- EU EU-GHG reduction
target
Renewable
Electromobility national targets no national targets no
Biofuels national targets no national targets no
EU-ETS: -21% till 2020 comp. 2005
afterwards -1,74% p.a.
Overall GHG reduction -20% till
2020 and -80% till 2050
Increasing reliance on RES, 60% share in electricity consumption
2050
Social economic assumptions:
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Mobility demand in the EU28
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38
2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
EU-28
Passenger traffic
(without aviation) Bio.
Pkm 5.857 6.458 6.796 6.884 6.911
car/motorcycles % 83,6 83,8 84,0 84,2 84,5
bus % 8,8 8,4 8,1 7,9 7,7
train % 7,6 7,8 7,9 7,9 7,8
Aviation PJ 2.066 2.947 3.399 3.634 3.787
Good transport Bio. tkm 2.549 3.268 3.762 4.009 4.133
trucks % 72,3 74,8 75,1 75,2 75,0
rail % 16,7 14,7 14,4 14,5 14,6
navigation % 11,0 10,4 10,5 10,3 10,3
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Scenario analysis CO2 Emissions (EU-28)
8
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
40002010
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
2020 2030 2040 2050
Em
iss
ion
s o
f C
O2
[Mt]
International Aviation
Transport (without int. Aviation)
Agriculture
Commercial
Residential
Industry
Conversion, production
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Net Electricity Supply (EU-28)
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
45002010
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
2020 2030 2040 2050
Sh
are
of
ren
ew
ab
le e
lec
tric
ity g
en
era
tio
n o
f to
tal
gro
ss
ele
ctr
icit
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n
Ne
t e
lec
tric
ity s
up
ply
[T
Wh
]
Electricity storage(excl. pump storage)Electricity ImportsDesertecNet Imports w/oDesertecOthers / Waste non-ren.
Other Renewables
Biomass / Waste ren.
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Hydro (incl. pumpstorage)Nuclear
Gas CCS
Gas w/o CCS
Oil
Lignite CCS
Lignite w/o CCS
Coal CCS
Coal w/o CCS
Share of renewableenergies
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Final Energy Consumption Electricity (EU-28)
10
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000M
od
ell
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ele
ctr
icit
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
Agriculture
Transport
Residential
Industry
Commercial
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Final energy consumption transport by
transport mode(EU-28)
11
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000S
tati
sit
c
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
fin
al
en
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n
[PJ
]
navigation
aviation
rail
trucks
Bus
individualtransport
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000S
tati
sit
c
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Fin
al
en
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ
]
Others
Hydrogen
Biofuels
Electricty
Gas
Kerosin
Gasoline
Diesel
Final energy consumption transport by
energy carier (EU-28)
12 /
38
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 13 / 3
7208
62266362
62116326
5392
5693
5386
5608
4725
5149
4450
4669
4201
4723
2943
3222
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000S
tati
sit
c
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
fin
al en
erg
y c
on
su
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
Others
Hydrogen
Biofuels
Electricty
Gas
Kerosin
Gasoline
Diesel
Final energy consumption cars by energy
carrier (EU-28)
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 14
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Sta
tistic
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ca
r s
toc
k i
n
[10
00
ve
h]
others
FCEV + FCHEV
BEV + PHEV
HEV (all fuels)
gas (natural gas,LPG)
bio liquides
conventional(gasoline, diesel,biofuel blending)
Stock of cars by engine type (EU-28)
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Stock of trucks and buses (EU-28)
15
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Sta
tistic
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
RE
F
RE
F-
EU
EU
-
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
tru
cks a
nd
bu
s s
tock [
1000 v
eh
]
others
FCEV +FCHEV
BEV + PHEV
HEV (all fuels)
gas (naturalgas, LPG)
bio liquides
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe
Conclusion and Outlook
16
● The penetration of electrical vehicles not only depends on the share
of renewables it is influenced mainly by the GHG reduction target.
● Till 2030 the assumed cost reduction for batteries and the GHG
reduction targets are to low to bring electro-mobility in the transport
sector without subsidies.
● Supporting electro-mobility influence the penetration in the midterm,
in the long term it’s the option to decarbonize the transport sector.
● A sensitivity analysis related the battery cost and the share of
renewable electricity generation of the gross electricity generation will
follow.
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Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 17 / 38
Thank you for your
attention !
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