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The role of Forestryin meeting the
Paris Agreement objectivePeter Holmgren
25 April 2019@ ”Our Forests Our Future”, Brussels
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1. The Paris Agreement is problematic for
the forest-climate nexus.
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Forest = Sink & Reservoir.
=Reservoir
Locking up carbon is the only role given to forestsin the Paris Agreement (as per Article 5)
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Greater wisdom in earlier days
IPCC 1st Assessment Report 1990. Primary recommendation on forests.
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Why did the forest perspective narrow down?• Kyoto protocol
• ”sectors” for accounting -> silos
• LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) reporting & targets• Reinforces that forest = carbon storage
• REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation +..)• Pay to keep carbon untouched in forests (but not for reducing fossil emissions)
• Conforming with generic UNFCCC goal• ”Removal of sources and enhancement of sinks”
• Pressure from nature conservation interests• Ignore active management of forests• and wood as a climate-smart material.
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Forestry is (now) erroneously & ironically presentedas a big part of the problem!
”Forestry & other land use”= 11% of global emissions
IPCC 5th Assessment Report 2014. Synthesis report, p46
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2. Complete & dynamic
perspectives on forests & forestry.
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60 GtC/yrcarboncapture(sink)
58 GtC/yr oxidation(source)
450 GtCVegetation
(not including soil)
700 GtC
1 tC = 3,67 tC02
9 Gt
C/yr
foss
il em
issio
ns
Source: IPCC
Global carbon reservoirs and annual fluxes
of whichLULUCF
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Forest growth – carbon captureForest removals, losses & substitutionFossil emissions
22MtC/yr
16MtC/yr
Source: IPCC
44MtC/yr 32
MtC/yr
1920 2019
3M
tC/y
r
15M
tC/y
r
Sweden:approximate reservoir & fluxes
1 tC = 3,67 tC02
c. 600 MtC vegetation c. 1200 MtC vegetation
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In other words:
• Carbon capture of forests is SEVERAL TIMES bigger than our fossil emissions.
• Active forest management dramatically INCREASE carbon capture.• PROVIDED it makes economic sense and is not ideologically blocked.
• IN ADDITION harvested wood gives further climate benefits.• REPLACING fossil materials and energy.
The Paris Agreement ignores all of the above.A gigantic missed opportunity.
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3. Forestry – role model for climate action.
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Atmosphere
Fossil fuels & materials underground
Biosphere
GREEN CARBON vs. FOSSIL CARBON
Photo: Ola Kårén
OtherSectors
Forestry
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Atmosphere
Fossil fuels &materials underground
Biosphere
CLIMATE EFFECT OF FORESTRY AND FOREST PRODUCTS
CLIMATE EFFECTFOREST VALUE CHAIN SUBSTITUTION
Photo: Ola Kårén
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NOTE! Total reported GHG emissions from Sweden in 2017:
63 MtCO2e including international travel (and including above 7).
43 50~ 7~ 85=
Forestry sector is
Sweden: Approximate climate effect 2017 of forest and forest products, MtCO2e
~
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We need a new deal for Forestry➢ Forests have a major role in balancing the climate.
➢ The Paris Agreement misses out on Forestry potential.
➢ Forestry – role model for climate action:
enhancing sinks, replacing fossils
➢ Forestry also provides welfare & sustainable development.
➢We need a new deal for investments in Forestry!