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vThe TOD DividendOpportunities and Findings
NCDOT
Public Transportation
Conference
October 2018
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Today’s Agenda
• Durham-Orange Light Rail
• Our FTA Transit Oriented
Development Pilot Program
Grant
• Report on Key Findings
– Economic
– Community Benefits
– Affordable Housing
– Catalytic Infrastructure
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Downtown Durham Station
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#ConnectingToOpportunity
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Goals of FTA Grant
• Coordinate neighborhood planning w/ D-O LRT Design
• Assess and plan for economic development
• Optimize community benefits
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Outcomes of FTA Grant
• Prioritize complementary infrastructure
• Recommend strategies to support equitable neighborhoods
• Deliver TOD Guidebook coordinating outcomes
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Our Opportunity & Our Challenge
• 20 new people move to
Durham / Chapel Hill
metro area every day
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Connecting to Opportunity
This growth means there are new
jobs here – can we get people
who need them to those jobs?
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Personal Mobility Supports Social Mobility
“In a large, continuing study of upward mobility based at Harvard, commuting
time has emerged as the single strongest factor in the odds of escaping poverty.
The longer an average commute in a given county, the worse the chances of
low-income families there moving up the ladder.” – “Transportation Emerges as
Crucial to Escaping Poverty,” New York Times, May 7, 2015
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Light Rail: Focused on Job Centers
• Durham-Orange Light Rail Corridor ~ 106,000 jobs TODAY
• Jobs in corridor projected to be over 150,000 in 20 years
Downtown Durham
UNC Hospital
Duke/VA Medical Center
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East Lakewood at Memphis St.2016 transit network
Jobs a worker canreach by transitin 45 minutes:
66,000
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23%
Increase East Lakewood at Memphis St.Future transit network with LRT
Jobs a worker canreach by transitin 45 minutes:
66,000Jobs a worker canreach by transitin 45 minutes:
81,000
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23%
Increase East Lakewood at Memphis St.Future transit network with LRT
Jobs a worker canreach by transitin 45 minutes:
66,000Jobs a worker canreach by transitin 45 minutes:
81,000
These numbers are based on the jobs and
housing we have today. If we plan well for station area development, even
more jobs will be accessible in 45 minutes
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Key Findings
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Economic Benefits
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Net New Accumulated Tax Revenue by Jurisdiction 2018 – 2057Chapel Hill / Carrboro Schools $26MTown of Chapel Hill $100MOrange County $110MCity of Durham $480MDurham County $680M
Total $1.4 billionFinancial estimates are reported as discounted present value based on an inflation-adjusted discount rate of 2.5%
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More revenues for:o Dedicated Housing Fundo Durham Belt Lineo Athletic facilities
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Affordable Housing
#HousingForAll
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• Affordability = Housing + Transportation
• Growing population + limited supply
• Gentrification/Displacement Concerns2013: $168,000 2018: $258,000
Durham median asking price, Redfin
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Realizing Opportunities
#HousingForAll
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• Harness growth along D-O LRT
– Equitable neighborhood change
– Walkable urbanism
• Partnerships
– Encourage meaningful private involvement
– New partners (e.g., Impact Investing)
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Strategies
#HousingForAll
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• Addressing Affordable & Attainable
– Subsidized & Naturally Occurring
– Calibrate for range of incomes
• Missing Middle
– Housing type diversity
– Incremental development (e.g., ADUs)
• Preservation
– e.g., converting market rate multifamily
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Just Do It
#HousingForAll
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• Clear and predictable approval process
• Exactions alone will not suffice—Need Private & Public $$$
• Expand experimentation with every tool possible
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v
DISCUSSION
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Video
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Catalytic Infrastructure Needs
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Pre-RailRail +10
yearsRail +20
years
• Each station area has its own needs and
catalytic opportunity
• Timing matters: e.g., affordable housing can’t
happen until utilities exist
• Harnessing partnership potential is key (e.g.,
OWASA reimbursement for oversizing utilities)
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Gateway + Eastowne + Patterson Place
Middle-of-the-Line
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Gateway + Patterson Place
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• Maximize benefits
– Geography & Proximity
– Opportunity for active uses
• Economic Development
– Class “A” office / HQ
– Hospitality & Entertainment
– Retail & Residential
• Mobility: Walk, Bike, Bus, Drive, Rail
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Gateway + Eastowne + Patterson Place
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DOLRT Corridor Total 2018 – 2057Station Areas (basis for all financial estimates below) 1071 acresPotential Redevelopment Areas Within Station Areas 297 acresNet New Property Value $484 millionNet New Annual Tax Revenue $6.56 million
Net New Accumulated Tax Revenue (through 2057) $200 millionFinancial estimates are reported as discounted present value based on an inflation-adjusted discount rate of 2.5%
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Connectivity
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Gateway + Patterson Place
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Pre-RailRail +10
yearsRail +20
years
Gateway 15/501 Connections > District Parking
Patterson Place Sewer Pump Station > I-40 Bike/Hike Bridge
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Public-Led District Parking
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• Shared, Managed, Unbundled & Priced
• Mix of on-street, surface and structured
• Coordination among Chapel Hill,
Durham, and private sector
Near Term
Long Term
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Zoning
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Town of Chapel Hill
• Presently a Future Focus Area
• Adopt Framework Plan as part of
Future Land Use Map
• Formulate a TOD District
Ordinance
• Incorporate into the LUMO
(Town-wide Land Use
Management Ordinance) rewrite
City/County of Durham
• Compact Neighborhood Tier
Boundary has been adopted
• Design District requirements are
being crafted, including the
establishment of sub-districts,
future street network maps,
environmental regulations,
heights and densities, an
affordable housing bonus, and
parking regulations
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Competitive Advantages
• World – Class
Universities
• A Global Brand
• Middle of the Line