Download - The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals
![Page 1: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Use of Force
•Why do we use force?•What can you do with force?
•Answer: attain political goals
![Page 2: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The Functions of Force
1. Defense2. Deterrence3. Compellence (coercive
diplomacy)4. Swaggering
Based in part on:
![Page 3: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Sources
• Thomas Schelling. Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960).
• Thomas Schelling. Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966).
• Alexander George, David Hall, William Simons. The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1971).
• Robert Art. To What Ends Military Power? International SecurityVol. 4, No. 4 (Spring, 1980), pp. 3-35.
• Herman Kahn. On Escalation (NY: Penguin, 1965).
![Page 4: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
1. Defense
![Page 5: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Defense at its most complex
![Page 6: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Defense at its most basic
![Page 7: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
2. Deterrence
•Goal: To prevent action•Method: Threat•Aimed at influencing an
opponent’s decision making•Assumption: rationality
![Page 8: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Rational ChoiceRational Choice
Cost Benefit Analysis
Threat: increases perception of costs
Options Costs Benefits
A ? ?
B ? ?
C ? ?
![Page 9: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Types of Deterrence
Deterrence by Punishment
Deterrence by Denial
![Page 10: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Communication
Europe during the Cold War
China and Taiwan
![Page 11: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Credibility and Reputation
•Capability•Will
•A bluff?
![Page 12: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Extended Deterrence
• Europe• Japan• S. Korea• Israel• Taiwan• Australia• New Zealand
![Page 13: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
What to Threaten?
![Page 14: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Irrationality?
Saddam Hussein Kim Jong-un
![Page 15: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
• If deterrence fails….
![Page 16: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
3. Compellence (coercive diplomacy)
•Goal: To change opponent behavior•To stop an opponent from doing something they are doing
•To get an opponent to do something they are not doing
![Page 17: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Basic Elements
1. Brute force won’t work2. Assumes rationality3. War is bargaining4. The power to hurt allows you
to enter the bargaining
![Page 18: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
1. Brute force won’t work
![Page 19: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
2. Assumes Rationality2. Assumes Rationality
Cost Benefit Analysis
Options Costs Benefits
A ? ?
B ? ?
C ? ?
![Page 20: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
3. War is Bargaining
![Page 21: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
4. Entering the Bargaining?
•The power to hurt•Capability• Intentions
![Page 22: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Some Lessons1. Shadow of the Future2. It doesn’t always work3. Commitment4. Credibility5. Democracies and Compellence6. Balance of Commitment7. Non-state Actors8. Civilians9. Uncertainty and Risk10.Domestic Politics11.Irrationality?
![Page 23: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
1. Shadow of the Future
• What coerces?• The promise of future violence
![Page 24: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
2. It doesn’t always work
![Page 25: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Compellence Success
• Cuban Missile Crisis
![Page 26: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Compellence Failure• F-105s over Vietnam
![Page 27: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
3. Commitment
• Berlin Airlift 1948
![Page 28: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
4. Credibility
A. Continue the pain
![Page 29: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Credibility
B. Interdependence of credibility and commitment• Reputation• Was Vietnam about Europe?• “Doctrine of Credibility”
![Page 30: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
5. Democracies
• Poor at compellence?• Vulnerable?
![Page 31: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
6. Balance of Commitment
Vietnam War
![Page 32: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Balance of Commitment
Ukraine
![Page 33: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
7. Non-State Actors
• Two ErasA.Cold War
•Insurgencies and Marxist ethno-nationalist terrorists
•Vietcong•Palestinian Liberation Organization
(PLO)
![Page 34: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Non-State Actors
B. Post-Cold War:• Network organizations living
off of globalization• Not state sponsored
• AQAM• Boko Haram• ISIL• Al-Shabab
![Page 35: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
8. Civilians
Dresden, Feb 1945 World Trade Center
![Page 36: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
9. Uncertainty and Risk
•Competition in risk taking•Brinkmanship•“The Threat That Leaves Something to Chance”•Escalation
• Herman Kahn
![Page 37: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
10. Domestic Politics and Compellence
![Page 38: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
The Politics of the Target
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
![Page 39: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Dilemmas
• Irratioality• Perceiving message• Can the opponent do what you
ask?
![Page 40: The Use of Force Why do we use force? What can you do with force? Answer: attain political goals](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/56649d365503460f94a0e4e6/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
4. Swaggering
• The Great White Fleet 12/07-2/09