The Value and Impact of Long-term Monitoring
Karina J. Nielsen, PhD San Francisco State University Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies Department of Biology
Decisions need to be made about important environmental issues
• Decisions have consequences
• Economy
• Environment
• Quality of life
• Families
High quality, long-term monitoring supports evidence-based decision making
• Reduces uncertainty
• Increases forecasting capacity
• Tracks impacts of policy, other changes
• Enables adaptive management
• Facilitates communication, engagement with broader audiences
Short-term studies are important, but not sufficient
• Seasonal cycle
• Trend?
305
310
315
320
325
330
1958 1959 1960
CO2 (
ppm
)
Year
Atmospheric CO2
Inconsistent monitoring impedes understanding
• Seasonal cycle
• Trend
• Gaps?
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015CO
2 (pp
m)
Year
Atmospheric CO2
High quality, long-term monitoring provides strong evidence
• Seasonal cycle
• Trend
• Persistent
• Convincing 290
310
330
350
370
390
410
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015CO
2 (pp
m)
Year
Atmospheric CO2
Source: R. F. Keeling, S. J. Walker, S. C. Piper and A. F. Bollenbacher Scripps CO2 Program (http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu )
Value and purpose of long-term monitoring questioned, commitment to sustain was key
• Funders
• Scientific community
http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/history_legacy/keeling_curve_lessons
Long-term ecological and environmental studies have high value and impact
• Examples of long-term studies
• Scientific value
• Policy value
• Importance, relevance for California
https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/figure/coastal-ecosystem-services
Interagency Ecological Program (http://www.water.ca.gov/iep/)
Consortium of state and federal agencies
Since 1970’s
Researchers: Wim Kimmerer, Peter Moyle, Larry Brown, John Durand, James Hobbs and others
Institution: San Francisco State University, UC Davis, US Geological Survey and others
San Francisco Estuary, delta smelt, multiple stressors
Moyle et al. 2016
Consequences of water diversion flows on delta smelt, Endangered Species Act
• Only some stressors have potential to be managed
• Entrainment loss calculations, different water diversion flows, water years
• Critical evidence for USFWS 2008 ESA-mandated Biological Opinion
• Importance evident in subsequent monitoring, analysis
Kimmerer 2008
Entrainment loss calculation Evidence-based conceptual model
Cosco Buscan oil spill, Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA)
Herring Biomass and Spawning Surveys (https://www.wildlife.ca.gov/)
California Department of Fish and Wildlife
Since 1979
Researchers: John Incardona, Gary Cherr, Katharyn Boyer, and others
Institutions: NOAA, UC Davis, San Francisco State University
Oiled shoreline Historic herring spawning areas NRDA Settlement
SF Bay Herring Biomass Cosco Busan
Oil Spill
Herring data, essential evidence for NRDA settlement, eelgrass restoration ongoing
• 2007-08: spawn mortality was 14-29% • Historic spawning areas from surveys • Spawning biomass surveys • Oil spill overlap • Toxicity, mortality of spawn
• 2008-09: Lowest spawning biomass recorded
• 2009-10: Herring season closed • 2010-11: Spawning biomass
rebounded, fishery re-opened
Sea otters recolonize estuaries
Elkhorn Slough Sea Otter Research (https://www.werc.usgs.gov/)
Data since 1965 (new partnership)
Researchers: Brent Hughes, Ron Eby, Eric Van Dyke, Tim Tinker, Corina Marks, Kenneth Johnson, Kerstin Wasson and others
Institutions: University of California-Santa Cruz, Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve, U.S. Geological Survey, CSU Monterey Bay, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
Sea otters benefit eelgrass, mitigating impacts of nutrient loading
• Recovery of top predators results in trophic cascade
• Eelgrass rebounds, despite
increasing nutrient loading
Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies (http://accessoceans.org/)
Since 2004
Researchers: Andrea Dransfield, Ellen Hines, Jaime Jahncke and others
Institutions: San Francisco State University, Point Blue, Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary, Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary and others
Northern & Central California National Marine Sanctuaries, SF Bay Shipping Lanes
Ship traffic Humpback habitat use
Understanding the consequences of policy changes: new shipping lanes, endangered humpback whales
2013 - new shipping lanes (USCG) • 69% reduction in vessel traffic footprint
within sanctuaries
• 76% reduction in overlap with highly used habitat
• Vessel traffic may be more concentrated
Pre-2013 Post-2013
Long-term monitoring addresses something people need to know
(Lindenmeyer & Likens 2009)
Attributes of useful & sustainable long-term monitoring programs are known
• Purpose (question/hypothesis)
• Both basic AND applied purposes
• Integrity of time series is maintained
• Consistency/quality of data collection
• Adaptability
• Rigorous, detailed documentation
• Data management & dissemination
• Inclusive participation by scientific community, others
• Management & governance structure
• Rigorous funding structure
• Educational component
(Hughes et al. 2017)
Stagnation of National Science Foundation funding threatens availability of long-term monitoring data
• Existing programs more precarious
• Fewer new programs being started
(Hughes et al. 2017)
Long-term monitoring addresses coastal & ocean issues important to California
Climate Change
Fisheries Management
Pollution
Marine Protected Areas Network
Emerging Issues