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The Volcanic Ash Strategic‐Initiative Team
K. Stebel, F. Prata, E. Sollum, N. Kristiansen and A. Stohl (NILU)
G. de Leeuw, T. Virtanen, M. Sofiev and J. Vira (FMI)
G. Wotawa, D. Arnold and C. Maurer (ZAMG)
C. O'Dowd, D. Martin, J. Bialek and M. Hervo (NUIG)
C. Aas and M. Kamstra (S&T)
C. Zehner (ESA)
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Volcanic ash
High silicate content Particle size (radius) ranges from 0.01–500 μm (typically) Irregular shape Melting point ~1100 ºC (800–1200 ºC).
Economics - EyaThe total impact on global GDP caused by the first week’s disruption amounts to approximately US$4.7 billion.
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Flight tracks Jebel-at-Tairvolcanic cloud
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vast.nilu.no
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2 Steps:ash detectionash retrieval
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Low clouduniformity over ocean, clouds at moderate to highZA,Cloud/SO2 test
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//fred.nilu.no/sat/
Proactive ash detection monitoring
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22.05.13Volcanic ash 10
Volcanic ash detection from AATSR
BTD=T11– T
12< 0
Etna, 10/28/2002 eruption.
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22.05.13Volcanic ash 11
Aerosol models
Standard CCI aerosol models
model rg
(µm) σ m ALH (km)
non-absorbing fine 0.07 1.7 1.4 – 0.003i 0-2
absorbing fine 0.07 1.7 1.5 – 0.040i 0-2
sea salt 0.788 1.822 1.4 – 0.000i 0-1
dust 0.788 1.822 1.56 – 0.002i 2-4
model rg
(µm) σ m ALH (km)
TI01 0.142 1.7 1.47 - 0.0015i 0-2
TI10 1 1.7 1.47 - 0.0015i 0-2
TI20 2 1.7 1.47 - 0.0015i 0-2
Ash specific aerosol models (Andesite, Pollack 1973)
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22.05.13Volcanic ash 12
Volcanic ash retrieval
AOD and mixing ratio are retrieved. From these we can derive the effective radius and column mass load.
Etna, 10/28/2002 eruption.
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22.05.13Volcanic ash 13
Comparison to standard CCI retrieval
Here we compare the AODs retrieved with the ash specific model and with the standard CCI model
Etna, 10/28/2002 eruption. Left: ash specific retrieval. Right: standard CCI retrieval.
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22.05.13Volcanic ash 14
Volcanic ash plume top height estimate
Due to parallax, the elevated ash plume is seen at different apparent position by nadir and forward views. An area based stereo matching
algorithm is used to produce an estimate of the plume top height.
Etna, 11/28/2002 eruption. Left) ash seen by nadir view (blue), forward view (green), or both views (red). Right) height estimate (km).
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Grimsvótn volcano (64.25 N, 17.20 W, 1725 m)
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SEVIRI ash retrieval 22-24 May 2011
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AATSR AOD and plume height 22 May 2011
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AIRS SO2 retrieval 24 May 2011
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Modelling activities:
Satellite data assimilation SILAM (FMI)
Inverse modelling and source term determinationFLEXPART (NILU)
Ensemble modelling (ZAMG)
WRF-Chem(NUIG)
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Emission inversion using OMI SO2 column
Grímsvötn time-height emission estimation,Unit: [kg SO2m
-1 sec-1].
Emission inversion using IASI SO2 column
Satellite data assimilation
3D-Eulerian dispersion model SILAM
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0 24 48 72hr 0 24 48 72hr
20km 20km
Grimsvötn SO2 source
• Constrained with plume-top obs
• ~200 kton of SO2
• Unconstrained inversion
• 230 ktons of SO2
Both: OMI STL product, no a priori source, SILAM run at 0.5 deg resolution
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OM
I
un
con
stra
ined
co
nst
rain
ed
22.05.2011 23.05.2011 24.05.2011
Agreement with OMI
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FLEXPART Grimsvötn ash and SO2
- transported to different directions
Ash (IASI) SO2 (IASI*)
Was ash and SO2 emitted at different times and to different altitudes?
Moxnes et al. (2013), Separation of ash and sulfur dioxide during the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption
– source term estimates and transport modeling constrained by satellite observations, In Prep.* Courtersy L. Clarisse
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Ash
Grimsvötn source terms for ash and SO2
SO2
Ash emitted to low altitudes
SO2 emitted to high altitudes
- determined from inverse modelling using IASI and SEVIRI satellite data
Moxnes et al. (2013), Separation of ash and sulfur dioxide during the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption
– source term estimates and transport modeling constrained by satellite observations, In Prep.
Hei
ght
of
emis
sio
n
Time of emission Time of emission
Emission strength (kg m-1 s-1)
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Grimsvötn modelled dispersion of ash and SO2
Ash transported South-East
SO2 transported North-West
Moxnes et al. (2013), Separation of ash and sulfur dioxide during the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption
– source term estimates and transport modeling constrained by satellite observations, In Prep.
Ash (modelled) SO2 (modelled)
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Modelled ash vs. ground-based PM10 measurements across Scandinavia
Moxnes et al. (2013), Separation of ash and sulfur dioxide during the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption
– source term estimates and transport modeling constrained by satellite observations, In Prep.
Black line=modelColuored bars=measurement
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Demonstration operational testing of ash prediction services for global aviation
The demonstration operational tool is based in four different aspects providing results with different level of complexity to the end user (see poster by Wotawa et al. for details):
1. Trigger
2. Database and modelling tool
3. Ensemble modelling with the
ECMWF EPS system
4. Source term estimation with
(dynamic) inversion
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1
Trigger:
1. Manual triggering2. Notification from SACS3. Ash detection from SEVIRI
Volcano database and modelling tool
- Web interface
- Database with basic information on
volcanos (release heights, durations,
percentage of fine ash folliwing
USGS/Mastin et al, 2009)
- GUI to set-up FLEXPART forecasts
- GUI to navigate through results
- Additional options for advanced results
(inversion, ensemble modelling, runs
with a given a posteriori source term)
2
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3
Ensemble modelling using ECMWF EPS
1. Reduction of the number of ensemble members from 50 to5-6 with cluster analysis of key meteorological variables(Klonner, 2013).
2. FLEXPART runs with the full dataset for this 5-6 ensemblemembers to obtain a multi input mini ensemble.
4
Source term estimation
1. Ad-hoc inversion2. Dynamic inversion
(development) for extended events
Combination of the sensitivity fields obtained with the atmospheric transport model (updated with incoming meteorological data), satellite re-griddedretrievals and a priori information.
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LIDAR network
4-node network in Ireland
Eye-safe UV LIDAR at Dublin Airport
(355 nm with a power of 12 mJ at 20 Hz)
LIDARS at Malin Head (North), Mace
Head (West) and Cork (South).
Real-time ash detection software
Temporal Height-Tracking approach
(Martucci et al., 2010, Milroy et al. 2011;
Haeffelin et al., 2011)
Data-streaming communications to both
the Irish Aviation Authority IAA and NUIG.
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Volcanic AshConcentration Chart
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http://macehead.nuigalway.ie/rt/lidars