Climate Change Ecology Prof. J. Hicke 1
Topic 5: Mechanisms of influence: Species range shi�s
Climate Change Ecology Geography 404
Jeff Hicke
Climate Change Ecology Prof. J. Hicke 2
Species range shi�s 1. Introduction
focus on historical (documented) range shifts range shifts only
reminders niches (fundamental, realized) roles of climate variables when climate shifts, ranges can shift
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Species range shi�s 2. Definitions and concepts
species range area in which the species is found
range shifts
caused by movement of individuals or appearance/disappearance of individuals contraction: loss of individuals at periphery of a
species’ range expansion: dispersal to new habitat outside of
current range
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Species range shi�s
species ranges shift to track climate
evidence from paleoclimatology
2. Definitions and concepts
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Slide courtesy C. Still
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Lomolino et al., 2006
Equatorial Mountain Changes
Downward shift in land cover types during LGM
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Differential species responses: rates, direction
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Smith and Smith, 2006
Different dispersal patterns of species that coexist today
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Species range shi�s
climate change can cause range shifts through changes in mean climate short-term climate extremes
interactions with other species
2. Definitions and concepts
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Species range shi�s
current climate change is different from climate change in the past for two reasons: 1. humans have modified the landscape (habitat
fragmentation) 2. climate change is more rapid than in the past
2. Definitions and concepts
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Species range shi�s
Three responses of a species to climate change
1. move 2. adapt
evolve change behavior
3. die (extinction or extirpation)
For insects, seems like most move…
2. Definitions and concepts
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Species range shi�s
Range shifts in tropics less well documented than in extratropics
climate change has been less there
less is known about tropical species but sensitivity may be greater there
lower T ranges organisms (like insects) already at their optimum
T
2. Definitions and concepts
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Species range shi�s
Indirect effects of climate change on range shifts 1. Effects of pathogens, disturbances
2. Definitions and concepts
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Species range shi�s
increase in burned area for 1º C increase in temperature
Li�ell et al., Ecological Applica�ons, 2009; Na�onal Academies, Climate Stabiliza�on Targets, 2010
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Species range shi�s
Hannah 2011
Malaria and people
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Species range shi�s
Indirect effects of climate change on range shifts 2. Range shift allows utilization of new habitat
brown argus butterfly: northward expansion at twice global mean rate: why?
Host 1: rockrose occupies sites with warmer microclimate; not widespread
Host 2: geranium occupies sites with cooler microclimate; widespread
Patemann et al., Science, 2012
2. Definitions and concepts
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Species range shi�s
with warming, brown argus uses geranium
because geranium is more widespread, butterfly can disperse more easily
warming facilitates expansion, allowing brown argus to adapt rapidly (benefit)
species interactions are important for assessing climate change impacts
Patemann et al., Science, 2012
Indirect effects of climate change on range shifts 2. Range shift allows utilization of new habitat
2. Definitions and concepts
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Species range shi�s
Recent beetle range
Historical host
(lodgepole pine) range
Potential host (jack
pine) range
Logan and Powell 2001
Expansion of mountain pine beetle into novel host
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Species range shi�s
Indirect effects of climate change on range shifts 3. competition with other species
southern range limit retreating
northward
northward expansion
Hannah 2011
2. Definitions and concepts
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Species range shi�s
Interactions between climate change and biological invasions
2. Definitions and concepts
30 species of Hawaiian honeycreepers (Drepanididae)
endemic to Hawaiian islands on Oahu, 6 species extinct by 1900
declines in lower elevation species but not higher elevation
tied to introduction of Culex mosquitoes in
1820s by Europeans carriers of avian malaria lack of evolution in presence of
mosquitoes => lack of defense in honeycreepers
limited in elevation extent by temperature
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Species range shi�s
Upward expansion of avian malaria parasite
Implications for native birds???
Hannah 2011
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Walther et al., 2002
Climate change will facilitate invasions of exotic species
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Species range shi�s
Extinctions higher probability if
smaller populations
highly sensitive to climate change
limited habitat (including future habitat)
2. Definitions and concepts
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Species range shi�s
Extinctions Example: golden toad in Costa Rica
Hannah 2011
2. Definitions and concepts
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Species range shi�s
Meta-analyses assess changes using 10s to 1000s of studies Look for a consistent signal in responses of species to warming
poleward shift upward (elevational) shift
Estimate average rates of shifts Powerful evidence for existence of climate change
3. Meta-analyses
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Species range shi�s 3. Meta-analyses
Chen et al., Science, 2011 23 taxonomic groups, 764 species median rate of range shift:
elevation: 11 m/decade upward
latitude: 17 km/decade poleward
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Species range shi�s 3. Meta-analyses
Chen et al., Science, 2011
more warming, greater shifts latitude: range shifts can keep up with warming
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Species range shi�s 3. Meta-analyses
Chen et al., Science, 2011
substantial variability in species
related to time delays in
responses
different physiological constraints
other drivers of change
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Species range shi�s 3. Meta-analyses
Rosenzweig et al., Nature, 2008
physical and biological responses with observed changes
90% were consistent with warming
consistent across continents
very unlikely to be caused by natural climate variability
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Species range shi�s
Edith’s checkerspot butterfly
4. Additional examples of range shifts
Hannah 2011
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Species range shi�s
pika
sensitive to summer temperature
recently, lower elevation populations have disappeared
but pikas exist in hot
places
Tricky to understand the role of climate change!
4. Additional examples of range shifts