Torino Process
2018-2020
LVIV 25 October 2019
Torino Process 2018-202
THE TRIANGLE OF ANALYSIS
POLICIESISSUES
ASSESSMENT
Torino Process 2018-203
THE ETF ASSESSMENT• Human capital development issues, for example:
• Demographic development
• Education attainment
• Labour market performance
• Education sector reforms and policy responses
• Main government strategies and reform initiatives
• New legislation and policies related to VET and skills development
• ETF assessment
• How VET policies fit with the overall developments and “big picture”
• Main areas and topics which require immediate attention and action
SELECTED HUMAN CAPITAL INDICATORS ON UKRAINE
Data source: ETF KIESE
Indicator 2013 2017 2018
Total Population (,000.000) 45,37 42,41 42,22
Relative size of youth population (age group 15-
24, %)
16.7 13.7 13.2
SELECTED HUMAN CAPITAL INDICATORS ON UKRAINE
Data source: ETF KIESE
(1) Population structure (%) Year
0-24
2015
25.9
25-64 58.2
65+ 15.9
0-24
2025
26.0
25-64 55.1 - 3,1%
65+ 18.8(2) Average years of schooling 2017 11.3
(3) Expected years of schooling 2017 15
(4) Learning-adjusted years of schooling 2017 10.2
(5) Adult literacy 2015 99.8
DECREASING YOUTH POPULATION
Share of youths (0-24) in the population
Data source: ETF KIESE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Republic of Moldova Ukraine
2011 2014 2017
HIGH AND IMPROVING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Data source: Eurostat
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
EU-28
Ukraine (¹)
Georgia
Moldova
Armenia (²)
Azerbaijan
Proportion of 30-34 year olds having completed tertiary education, 2017 (%)
RELATIVELY HIGH ACTIVITY – 2007-2017
IN UKRAINE ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT RATES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY DECLINING
Data source: Eurostat
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Ukraine (³)
Moldova
Georgia
Belarus (²)
Azerbaijan
Armenia (¹)
EU-28
Employment rates (15-64)
2017 2012 20070.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Ukraine (¹)
Moldova
Georgia
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Armenia
EU-28
Activity rates (persons aged 15-64), 2017
LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES BY EDUCATION LEVELS, 2017
Data source: National statistics
2017
EXCESS LABOUR SUPPLY RELATIVE TO DEMAND, BY EDUCATION, 2005–2017
Data source: WB calculations
based on LFS data
%0
50%
100 %
150 %
200 %
%250
Tertiary university
education (ISCED 5A/6)
Short-cycle tertiary
education (ISCED 5B)
Secondary education
(ISCED 2-4)
Primary education
(ISCED 1)
2005 2010 2015* 2017*
HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION HELPS COMBAT THE POVERTY
Data source: School to work
transition study, 2016
Poor
Not poor, but below
the national average
Around the national
Average
Fairly well off
Well off
EDUCATION LEVEL OF MIGRANTS BY DESTINATION COUNTRY
%2 %2%9
%3%6
%2035 %
36 %
%30%52
46 %
34 %24 %
34 %24 %
%17%19 %18
%17
19 %
16 % %11 %13 %1626 %
0%
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
Poland Russia Italy Labour
migrants
Population*
complete higher
education
basic higher or
incomplete higher
education
vocational
general secondary
education
basic secondary or
primary education
Data source: SSSU, LFS
2017
Torino Process 2018-2014
KEY ISSUES EMERGING ON THIS• Decreasing working age and youth population
• Higher education remains popular because it provides the best labour
market outcomes and seems to be still the best way to combat poverty and
unemployment
• Skills mismatch – underutilisation of skills due to “overeducation” – people
with higher education background work in semi-skills occupations
• Difference in wage premium is insignificant at secondary VET level, pre-
tertiary and basic higher education (bachelor) in similar fields of studies
• Limited trust and confidence in vocational qualifications vs HE diploma
• Increasing migration in recent years – skilled workers with VET background
move for better jobs and working/living conditions (particularly to Poland)
NUMBER OF GRADUATES OF VOCATIONAL AND TECHNICAL SCHOOLS, COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES, 1990–2013
Data source: Kupets, 2016
EVOLUTION OF VET INSTITUTIONS AND PARTICIPATION
Data source: SSSU 2018, data excludes VET institutions in Crimea and territories in Donetsk and Luhansk
regions which are not controlled by the Ukrainian government
Year Number of
institutions
Number of students Share related to
1990
Students per
institution
(thousands)
Share related to 1990
1990 1246 643,400 100% 516 100%
2000 970 524,600 82% 541 105%
2010 976 433,500 67% 444 86%
2013 968 391,200 61% 404 78%
2017 756 269,400 42% 356 69%
2018 736 255,000 39,6% 347 67%
SELECTED DATA ON PROFESSIONAL PRE-TERTIARY EDUCATION
Data source: MOES 2018
2010/2011 2015/2016 2018/2019 Percentage
Number of institutions 483 387 370
Number of students 351,444 230,110 199,926
Enrolled after 9th grade 147069 73.60% Enrolled after 11th grade 52857 26.44%
New enrolment 35101
Enrolled in junior specialist
programmes
33963 96.76%
Enrolled in bachelor programmes 1138 3.24%
Source of funding per number of students
(%)
National budget 36.3 36.0 13.5
Local budget 21.8 28.1 52.6
Private tuition fees 41.8 35.6 33.9
Enterprises 0.1 0.3 0.0
EDUCATION: PUBLIC SPENDING OR INVESTMENT?
Data source: Eurostat
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Public expenditure on education as a share of GDP, 2007-2017(% of GDP)
Ukraine (¹)(²)
EU-28 (¹)
• Out of 6 % of GDP spent on education, 2.8 % of GDP went to general secondary
education, 1.3 % to higher education institutions, 0.9 % to preschool and early
childhood education and 0.3 % to VET.
ACCESS TO QUALITY LEARNING
Source : WB calculations based on EDEBO database.
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Urban Rural Urban Rural
State-funded places Privately funded contract
places
Number Average EIT score
Torino Process 2018-2020
KEY ISSUES EMERGING ON THIS• Number of enrolments decreasing at all levels of education
• Number of education providers also decreasing at all levels of education but
the average size per student raises concern on efficiency and high costs
• High expenditure in education (6% of GDP + 1% of private expenditure)
raises concerns on efficiency and maintenance of large institutional
networks
• Convergence of secondary VET and pre-tertiary professional education –
majority of enrolments after 9th grade
• High selectiveness of the education system and rural/urban disparities raise
equity concerns
Torino Process 2018-2021
Torino Process 2018-2022
ISSUES ON LIFELONG LEARNING
• Low participation in lifelong learning – EU average 11.8% (2018), lowest
participation in Romania 0.9%, EU 2020 benchmark target 15%
Indicator 2017 2018
Participation in training/lifelong
learning (age group 25-64) by sex
(%)
Source: SSSU, LFS data
Total 0.8 0.8
Male 0.8 0.9
Female 0.8 0.7
Torino Process 2018-2023
KEY POLICY RESPONSES IN 2014-2019• New legislation:
• Law on HE in 2014
• Law on Education 2017
• Law on Professional Pre-Tertiary Education 2019
• In the pipeline: Law on General Education & Law on VET
• Policies affecting VET and skills development
• Decentralisation of VET to regional level
• New Ukrainian School concept
• Concept on Modern VET until 2027
• Concept of Dual VET (2018-2019)
• Government Programme 2019-2023
Torino Process 2018-2024
KEY ISSUES EMERGING ON THIS
• Law on Education (2017) provides strategic framework for education sector
reforms
• The Law stipulates a new structure for the entire education system but it’s
aligned with old institutional framework
• Potential risks or problems: education sub-systems vaguely connected with
each other and focus on resolving their own specific problems -
fragmentation
• Missing? : A holistic policy to develop a new lifelong learning system
where different parts of the education system are well integrated with fair
and harmonised rules and principles which guide the policy implementation
for the benefit of learners, economy and society
Torino Process 2018-2025
THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONSIntegration of provision at upper secondary level after 9th grade
• Horizontal – secondary VET and general secondary education
• To create attractive pathways to both academic and vocational
tracks without institutional barriers in line with the New Ukrainian
School concept
• To reduce stigma related to VET and segregation of young
learners at early age to increase VET participation
• To develop an alternative matriculation exam to replace EIT as
an obligation for VET graduates to enrol in higher education
Torino Process 2018-2026
THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONSDifferentiating provision at professional pre-tertiary level to distinguish it
from secondary VET provision
Vertical integration – secondary VET & professional pre-tertiary
institutions
• To harmonise and merge VET programmes provided now by different
types of institutions (VET schools, colleges and technikums) for
efficiency gains after 9th grade
Manage optimisation of school networks in a fair and transparent way
• To set the national guidelines on optimisation with clear criteria ensuring
a) labour market relevance, b) efficiency of using teaching and learning
resources, c) access of learners in line with their residential distribution
Torino Process 2018-2027
THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONSDifferentiating provision at professional pre-tertiary level to
distinguish it from secondary VET provision
• Admission to pre-tertiary level only after upper secondary level
(11/12th grade)
• To develop labour market relevant qualifications for more
complex occupations e.g. in health care or technical fields to be
provided by pre-tertiary institutions
• To engage employers and the National Qualifications Agency
in defining and accrediting short-cycle programmes
Torino Process 2018-2028
THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONSDevelop skills and competences of teachers and use them
more efficiently
• Through integration of general and vocational education at upper secondary
level – make qualified teachers of general education track teach also
learners in VET programmes
• To abolish the Soviet legacy of dividing theory and practice by VET teachers
and trainers/instructors and their status and roles
• To review the competence requirements of modern VET teachers by making
the work and practical experience (at least 3 years) compulsory, creating a
(short-cycle) pedagogical programme to qualify them and awarding them
accordingly to make the teaching profession attractive
Torino Process 2018-2029
THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONSEnhancing the capacity of providers to respond to and
raise lifelong learning demand
• To increase the autonomy of providers and incentivise them
to provide lifelong learning courses
• To build the capacity of teachers to train adults
• To integrate gradually VET provision for young people and
adults through recognition of prior learning, creating
individual learning trajectories and modularising new VET
qualifications
Torino Process 2018-2030
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!